François Berrier

@FaithOdjugo @elonmusk @jack you're stopping one step too early: reality is the code as well. (best explained by Minsky ... first 5 minutes of this if you are curious: youtube.com/watch?v=CIoddZ…)

@elonmusk @jack "Physics doesn't run on code, it is the code. Hardware is the substrate that makes the simulation real.

everything is programming

@ArthurMacwaters the belief that GDP per capita is a good proxy for cost of living is logically false (maybe replace by real disposable income net of direct and indirect taxes)

the belief that birth rate is going down because of cost of living is statistically false birth rate drops most after countries become affluent it’s a self-defeating mechanism this is the final boss of civilization and has not yet been beaten

@LawrenceLepard @Malikas_Friend @LynAldenContact @HodlFlorida @Pledditor @LukeGromen @JoshMandell6 it almost looks like he has some VC money to raise for his QC projects 🙂

It’s bullshit. Nic is a quantum FUD generator. professionals know that this is a small threat with a way out time window. also, solutions will exist and Strategy has now thrown its hat in the ring to help the community adopt a solution. bottom line: Bitcoin will be fine. Relax

Did y'all see this? I'm interested in hearing your thoughts @LynAldenContact @LawrenceLepard @HodlFlorida @Pledditor @LukeGromen @JoshMandell6

@projecteleven yeah the paper states there may be little time if we assume all of the scaling challenges have been solved. We didnt need a paper to tell us that.

@fripchoc The paper states there may be little time to scale from 32 to 256. That is the concern. People say "they can't do anything yet," but as soon as they can, it's too late.

🚨 Google has sounded the quantum alarm 🚨 Today, they released groundbreaking progress towards breaking crypto using a quantum computer. TLDR - Existing cryptography is dead. Mempool attacks are real. We must migrate to post-quantum now. Thread 🧵

@projecteleven and that invalidates my point how exactly? 🤡

@fripchoc Quant Trader is not the same as Quantum Physicist

@projecteleven simply asserting: “if all the scaling challenges get solved overnight, scaling will be quick” is not exactly the flex you think it is.

Google notes that quantum progress will be swift. We will not have any additional warning signs or canaries in the coal mine. This is it. The “ha ha your quantum computer can’t factor 21” folks should take note.

@YBhutwala @btcjvs Exactly 👍🏻 … people comment on the avg purchase price without even looking at the avg sell price (which according to the 8-K was just over $150 per share!)

@btcjvs They're not paying a premium. They just ATM'd and bought Bitcoin probably on Tuesday when they could and that's just what the average price ended up being. There is no reason to compare the average price of the week.

So MSTR paid well above the average price of BTC for the week again. So I took a 10-minute resolution of the bitcoin price over the past 12 months, to see the premium/discount that the company pays per week. Over the past 12 months, Strategy has paid roughly a 1% size weighted premium (formula below) to market prices. Missing out on about 2,500 BTC, or roughly $180 million at $70,000, with the much higher 15 to 25% premiums occurring in short bursts, which can make a simple average look closer to 12%. The largest premiums tend to occur during strong upward moves in BTC, when Strategy raises capital at elevated stock prices and deploys it aggressively into a rising market. The company does not optimize for price but for exposure timing, as they raise capital when their stock is strong and deploy it into BTC, meaning they tend to buy more aggressively in bull runs when both their stock and BTC are higher, and track the market more closely in calmer periods. Spread Sheet and Formula Below:

@btcjvs As per 8-K they sold shares just over $150, which only happened once during the week, and at which time Bitcoin was over $74k. They dont care about the average price of week (nor should they), they sell shares when the mNAV is strongest and buy bitcoin instantly.

@PeterSchiff @BitcoinJunkies you mean just like fiat money? 🤡

@BitcoinJunkies We don't need banks because we can tokenize gold.

🇺🇸 Billionaire Jack Dorsey says we don't need banks anymore because we have Bitcoin.

@idrissaberkane y’a des tonnes de gens qui tiennent leur verre avec la main droite ou gauche selon les moments (moi par exemple) … et ce sans etre ambidextre. Sans rentrer dans la politique, faut arreter de voir des fakes videos partout.

(Et oui il est gaucher avant que vous demandiez)

Bon au final je ne pense que la publication de la vidéo du coffee shop ait été une super idée…

@kndro13 @TrajansGhost @BasedSamParker I think people who want to see AI will see it anywhere. Maybe feed the video to a few AIs and ask them if they think it s AI. I think it s plausible it s not.

@fripchoc @TrajansGhost @BasedSamParker I don’t think the Israelis think that much of anyone else to take that much care. I think it’s AI.

The way he casually picks up that coffee and the surface tension nearly defies physics. I kept waiting for it to spill. Lol Even his drink is demonic.

@kndro13 @TrajansGhost @BasedSamParker dude, not commenting on the politics or anything, but dont you think it s at least possible they take these videos in several shots & edit them? i e he could have done some of the talking before, they could have shot the guy passing him the cup 2-3 times, reordered sequences etc?

@TrajansGhost @BasedSamParker You’d expect some foam on his lip

yeah but there is little evidence doing 1:1 or 1.5:1 instead of 2:1 would have a material effect on mnav (which as you know and said yourself is mostly driven by market sentiment, and as we have seen in the past year or so has little dependency on ATM aggressiveness) my take is they want to keep the btc rating high enough to keep credit attractive and make sure they do survive until the end game. most long terms investors in Strategy or SWC dont really care about current mnav. finally, last week alone, a 2:1 ratio gave us an additional 80 bp in btc yield if i am not mistaken so that s plenty sufficient to get us to 10% by year end if they can maintain that rate and ratio of issuance.

Mostly I just think they're playing the long game. They could be simply selling STRC and getting to ~50% amplification faster, which would let mNAV expand for MSTR. But they're selling MSTR ATM in roughly a 50% amplification mix, which means they are shrinking traditional debt as % of balance sheet. Don't think I would do anything differently, except possibly straddle both approaches by doing 1:1 or 1.5:1 instead of 2:1, might let the mNAV breathe a bit and capture more accretion for existing holders - if I'm them, I don't want to deliver sub 10% BTC Yield for 2026. Strategic value of scale slightly at odds with existing holders' priorities in the medium term. Long term, everyone wins

Strategy likely buying over 1,000 BTC per hour today with STRC/MSTR combined. Probably nothing.

@Croesus_BTC *discounted* expected value where the discount accounts for time value AND risk preference. This is indeed asset pricing theory 101 but somehow seems controvertial just because the numeraire is bitcoin instead of $.

I believe mNAV for a Bitcoin treasury company is the result of 2 subjective variables: - The expected value of total future increase in Bitcoin per share (aka BTC Yield) - The expected value of total future admin costs Both of these are sentiment-driven. When the market is optimistic about Bitcoin, people get excited about the prospect of growing Bitcoin ownership. Willingness to pay a premium to NAV becomes the norm. When Bitcoin is down or sideways, gloomy pessimism becomes the norm. Expected future BTC Yield shrinks while expected future admin drag becomes more of a worry. mNAV premiums turn into discounts. This happened to Strategy in the 2022 Bitcoin bear market - reaching a 0.7 mNAV. But when Bitcoin rallies again, sentiment slowly reverses. In 2024, Strategy's mNAV reached 4x. Cyclicality of Bitcoin sentiment is nothing new. Yet people assume it won't happen for Bitcoin treasury companies. The only BTCTC around in the last bear market (Strategy) gives a good indication of what might happen for leading BTCTCs going forward.

@maxkeiser it hardly matters. not sure why so many are fixated on CBs buying bitcoin. the institutions holding the most bitcoin will be the new CBs of the future (irrespective of what they re called). Those from the past (which dont even hold gold anymore) will become irrelevant

Didn’t Ray Dalio say that no central bank will ever buy Bitcoin?

@PeterMcCormack @Heccles94 it’s actually even worse than that @PeterMcCormack: much of income of (and therefore much of the tax paid by) the bottom 99% also disappears once the top 1% disappears. Pretty much the whole of the public sector falls in that category.

@Heccles94 Question Harry, it’s a fair one, how will you pay for things when the rich leave. The top 1% pay nearly 30% of the tax and the top 10% pay nearly 60%. How do you replace the tax revenue for those who leave, what’s the plan?

We can end inequality. Tax the rich. Invest in public services. Stop predatory neoliberalist capitalism. End privatisation.

@HermesLux got nothing to do with your word. It is not possible because of maths.

@fripchoc Not that my word means anything to you, but it is very possible.

I'm sure he will not. It is very possible to reconstruct/reverse engineer STRF, STRD and STRK using a combination of STRC and MSTR in a portfolio and tweaking their allocations to get a similar or other customized desired outcome. K F & D makes it simpler, but I imagine the bank partners are going to be customizing and rebranding to sell to their clients.

@HermesLux that makes no sense. totally different products. why would someone holding STRD and betting on rates cut while holding a fixed coupons instrument would want STRC instead?

Strategy should probably just consider converting STRD, STRK, and STRF all into STRC.

@Rajatsoni I get to a price of infinity $ per coin. Please double check my math. Thanks

Infinite Dollars 21,000,000 Bitcoin You do the math