frontrun
1.3K posts
$BTC As we saw, the rally was short lived. But, let’s quickly break down what happened here. The moment price pushed and then stalled at the highs, we saw a violent, and I mean violent, selling pressure in the order books That’s not a bullish sign by any means. Selling into every small rip never is. In fact, this kind of behavior is something you typically see in a bear market, lol. Likely some ETF distribution at play here, something I mentioned a few weeks back as a possible factor adding to the selling pressure. Either way, market makers and institutional players move the market by hunting leverage. That is why we see those sharp upside pushes that are mostly leverage driven, followed by spot driven dumps. Let’s see what narrative unfolds into CPI. Maybe they ease up on the sell button this time. Lose 101K & things get ugly.
$BTC Currently, I’m following my weekly TF analysis. Following the FOMC meeting, we saw a -7.5% drop, exactly the move I was anticipating. Now, price is approaching some key levels of interest. The zone I’ve marked extends down to 106,600. While a deeper push with some deviation wicks is possible, I never aim to catch exact tops or bottoms. Instead, I prefer to scale into positions where I believe the RR is favorable for a move in the opposite direction. I’m also closely observing sentiment shifts reflected through price action. Despite maintaining a cautious bias, the current RR is attractive enough for me to attempt a long position. It’s important to note that any longs I take here will be at half my usual position size. This is because I still expect the potential for a deeper correction, so I’m managing risk accordingly on trades that go against my broader bias. If this area fails to hold and stops are triggered, it would increase the likelihood of a move toward 100K. However, before that, I think there’s a chance we see a short term bounce of around 1–3% before any continuation to the downside.
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