Pluto

@michaeljburry Whats the best way to position for this trade?

I believe everyone in PE and PC knows exactly what is going on. PE is remarkably proficient at kicking the can down the road, but it looks like the end of the road to me.

@Jansant Iran has had 47 yrs to change its way but has continually chosen terrorism. FAFO

This Sky Australia interview didn't go to plan

@DD_Geopolitics Israel has a few nuclear gifts for Iran

🇮🇷 Iranians gather at Revolution Square in Tehran with a message for Trump: "48 hours is enough to create hell. Ask Saddam about 72 hours." A reminder that the last leader who underestimated Iran started an 8-year war that destroyed him.

@bruceymate19 @VoteLewko Take care of your eyes pal….they’re the only balls you have

@plutocopia @VoteLewko Soy lattes and people like you who support geriatric 45yo single mothers having kids theyll troon out go hand in hand 🤝

"She said she was told she could only choose from six local options in NSW and they were all of Asian heritage."

@graeme_trevor @VoteLewko @lauren_vasiliou RSI is having some unexpected consequences

@VoteLewko @lauren_vasiliou So NSW needs more wankers? Hard to believe at this point.

@bruceymate19 @VoteLewko Lay off the soy latte’s champ

@VoteLewko Why does she need to match her heritage? Sounds like nazi eugenics. Ellen, 44, needs to understand that we live in a diverse multicultural Australia. I’m sure she would have no issues with people choosing not to race mix outside of IVF of course. Either way, good luck Ellen, 44

@Ultradeep3 Iran is doing the US a favor by closing down the SOH. US should be seizing all Iranian shipping once it exits the Persian gulf

And here we go…

@MarketMike @SheDrills How would you best position yourself to profit from this?

Nobody is talking about the 12 month rate of change on oil right now. They should be. WTI crude's ROC(12) just spiked to over 91%. Let me show you what happened every other time it did this. - 1987 Crash. - 1990 Crash. - Dot Com Bust. - 2008 Financial Crisis. - 2022 Bear Market. Every single spike of this magnitude on the 12 month rate of change has led to something breaking. Every. Single. Time. Do you really think this time we just walk away unscathed? This is your warning shot.

@PatX2020 @MonitorX99800 Why? Do you expect to only fight wars where the enemy doesn’t fight back

@MonitorX99800 The 5th one is a single Day. 😱😱😱 Iran is Dominating Tonight. 😤💪💪💪 What Air Defence are they using? It's time to call our Men and Women Home. ❤️ We've sacrificed so many lives in these futile wars. 💔

🇮🇷🇺🇸⚡️BREAKING: According to Tasnim news, another US fighter jet has been shot down by Iranian air defense, visible evidence shows only one engine booster suggesting the aircraft is either F-35 or an F-16.

@Jesii_ca_M 100% yes. Recreational use only

Tell honestly.

@dkx201 @tleilax___ @HFI_Research Not seeing any devestating consequences in your reply. I don’t think US would deploy nukes but Israel definitely would. Neurton bombs are smaller nuclear weapons with limited fallout & I can’t see any other nation risking a nuclear exchange to defend Iran.

@plutocopia @tleilax___ @HFI_Research I’m sorry if you think the world will let this slide: both Israel and US will be a pariah; and every single nation will race toward a nuke. That’s the best scenario. Worst scenario- other nuclear powers will be drawn and we have nuclear exchanges. No one knows the ramifications

Iran War - Update : Negotiations are pure theater. Trump's 48-hour ultimatum was never credible. The Gulf states told him so directly as follow-through would have meant Iranian missiles on their own infrastructure. Iran offered nothing. Trump got a backroom readout from Witkoff, called it diplomacy, and bought himself two more weeks. Why two more weeks ? For troops to arrive ! ~7,000 US forces are moving toward the Persian Gulf right now. When they get there, expect ground operations. The target: Abu Musa, Greater Tomb, Lesser Tomb. Seize those, and the US gets a defensive foothold to escort convoys through. That's the optimistic version. Timeline: 2-4 weeks per Rubio. Reality: probably 4-6 week if all goes according to plan (it never does) Kharg Island stays off the table for now. You need 12-15k troops for that, and taking it likely triggers Iranian strikes on Gulf desalination plants. The Americans need to degrade Iran further before they go there. Trump's risk appetite has flipped. Oil heading to $100+ as a baseline, $200 not ruled out by Treasury. Rate cuts dead for the year. Midterms already a lost cause. So what do you do? You swing for legacy. Control the Strait. Leverage Iranian oil against China. Call it the "Strait of Trump." He literally said that out loud in Miami. Don't assume it goes smoothly. The Iranians have been sharper than anyone expected. That likely-hypersonic strike on the US base in Saudi Arabia on Friday wasn't nothing. The Strait is full of civilian boats and ringed by mountains, RPG-enthusiast heaven. Half the US Navy's amphibious ships are in poor condition with low readyness (41% mid last year). Iran absorbs this war and survives, but just about. IRGC tightens its grip on the state. Industrial base is gutted. Legitimacy collapses under the weight of repression, economic ruin, water crises, and incompetent new leadership. 3-5 year trajectory looks like either civil war along ethnic fault lines or a Pakistan-style military dictatorship. Neither is stable. Both are nuclear-adjacent problems down the road. Some but not all Gulf states come out stronger, paradoxically. Saudi Arabia is looking at +$50B/yr in oil revenue through Yanbu alone. GCC cohesion deepens. Defense spending surges. Long-term redundancy like extra pipelines to the Mediterranean/Red Sea, rail, water security, gets built in a hurry. China doesn't fire a single shot and wins. Stockpiles, state-directed subsidies, no midterm elections to worry about. Xi plays the long game, positions China as the "stable great power," and waits to be invited into the post-war multinational policing force for the Strait. Which will be a fascinating moment. Trump loses the House badly. Senate is a coin flip. What follows: investigations on every front (insider trading, anyone ?), a hobbled domestic agenda, and a president who then goes maximally unilateral on foreign policy — the one domain where he has nearly unchecked power. Ukraine gets cut loose in a side deal with Moscow. Europe erupts. NATO frays. Europe accelerates defense decoupling, builds toward its own nuclear umbrella, and quietly restarts the "variable geometry" strategy, waiting for the next US president, keep maximum optionality shopping between Washington and Beijing for whoever offers a better deal. End up commiting to neither. "Belle of the ball" strategy. This is not ending at a ceasefire. The positions are structurally incompatible. The economic damage is still being massively underpriced. And the escalation ladder still has many rungs left. Hang on to you helmets. This is the big one.

@krassenstein Nukes first, then send ground troops once the radiation clears

BREAKING: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi dares Trump to sending troops: "You must send your soldiers to Iran, as you said, to open the Strait of Hormuz if you are brave and stand by your word. Don't talk so much, just send your powerful soldiers to Iran."

@ShitValueFund Labor sniffing around LNG profits like a bitch on heat

Has the market worked out that $WDS is going to pay a $4 per share dividend at 80% payout ratio if oil averages $100 USD for 12 months..... It's been my largest position since this war. I reckon stock goes to $60+ if oil stays above $100

@dkx201 @tleilax___ @HFI_Research Can you elaborate. What consequences are you referring to

@plutocopia @tleilax___ @HFI_Research The consequences for Israel would be devastating if they used nukes.

@freespeaker88 @TopherField China won’t be any better, most likely worse. Middle powers like Australia have to delicately navigate the hazardous world of geopolitics. There are no good guys. If we want a more independent foreign policy, Aus needs to get big, powerful & nuclear armed, fast.

@plutocopia @TopherField everything americarael does is destructive, usury, abortion, murder, sanctions, starvation, theft etc, living beyond its means harms the world

American Oil is back, and that's great news whether you like it or not. From Australia to Asia to the EU, everyone is signing up for American Energy. Trump is pivoting from protecting the US Petro-Dollar, to exporting US Petro-leum, and the energy crisis caused by the war in Iran means everyone else is falling in to line. Support my work by buying me a coffee via the button at topherfield.com Check out my books, DVDs, merch, and the getting your head in the game masterclass at: store.topherfield.com/collections/all

@Daddio273 @TopherField Trump isn’t Australia’s or the world’s president…he’s the US president. His duty is to act only in the US national interest, which he has very successfully. Australia should do the same & drill baby drill

@plutocopia @TopherField Not a genius, morally corrupt, doesn’t care about the suffering he is creating just to feather his nest.n

@freespeaker88 @TopherField Mate Thats no where close to 100m. Now do communist China or Russia. Gengis khan’s Mongolia, Roman Empire & Ottoman Empire all killed far more than the US has.

@plutocopia @TopherField Germany 2m+ France 70k Italy 100k Japan 1m + Korea 4m Vietnam 3m+ Laos 1m+ Cambodia 150k+ Iraq 1.5m Afghanistan 300k Pakistan 80k Syria / Yemen / Libya / Somalia 500k+ Other minor interventions (Balkans, Latin America, etc. combined) 400k+ and then sanctions, starvation etc

@LFCMemesFFOTWGT @mininukacola @disclosetv The Iranian people might revolt & overthrow the IRGC

@mininukacola @disclosetv And the idiots thought he was doing this to ‘liberate’ the Iranian people. It doesn’t hurt the regime to destroy Irans supply of clean drinking water. They will just hoard bottled water. This move will only hurt the civilians. And no doubt provoke the regime to retaliate!

JUST IN - Trump says if deal is not reached with Iran and Hormuz Strait opened, U.S. "will conclude our lovely 'stay' in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)."

@mininukacola @slfox81 @disclosetv Iran had it coming. FAFO

@slfox81 @disclosetv Maybe not starting a war. Maybe not starving people. Maybe not stopping 90m getting water. Maybe not cutting off 20% of the worlds oil supply. Maybe not fighting a war for israel. I mean he had many choices of how not to be evil