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$252,000 riding on whether a goalkeeper will score at this World Cup.
No goalkeeper has ever scored at a World Cup.
92 years. 22 tournaments. Never.
Polymarket puts it at 5% in 2026.
$252,826 already in volume.
English
Polykinder
226 posts
Polykinder
@polykinder
Probability beats punditry. I bet against the news cycle using on-chain data.
Se unió Eylül 2022
77 Siguiendo52 Seguidores
$262,215 is on the line for a goalkeeper scoring at this World Cup.
No goalkeeper has scored in 92 years and 22 World Cups. That's your base rate.
Then this World Cup gave us Vozinha. 40 years old. First World Cup ever. Blanked Spain with 7 saves. Gained 8 million followers overnight.
If a 40-year-old debutant can do that - maybe long-standing historical patterns don't mean what we think they mean.
Vozinha proved that impossible things happen at this World Cup.
"It's never happened" and "it's impossible" aren't the same thing.
Polykinder@polykinder
$252,000 riding on whether a goalkeeper will score at this World Cup. No goalkeeper has ever scored at a World Cup. 92 years. 22 tournaments. Never. Polymarket puts it at 5% in 2026. $252,826 already in volume.
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@Lutchyn13 @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketSport I think Kane has a very good chance of being the best player in this tournament, he's having a great season
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If the World Cup ended today, Messi would win the Golden Boot.
A week ago Polymarket gave him just a 6% chance.
After Matchday 1, both positions are looking much better.
> Messi leads the race with 3 goals after his hat trick against Algeria.
> Mbappé has 2 goals.
> Haaland has 2 goals.
> Kane has 2 goals.
The current Polymarket odds look like this:
Mbappé - 26%
Messi - 21%
Kane - 20%
Haaland - 10%
What's even more impressive is that the Golden Boot market has already traded more than $15 million in volume. That's a huge number for an individual player award and shows just how much attention this race is getting.
My Messi and Kane positions are already in profit, but the tournament is still in its early stages. There is a long way to go before someone lifts the Golden Boot.
If the first round showed us anything, it's that this could become one of the most entertaining markets of the entire World Cup.
Lutchyn@Lutchyn13
The Golden Boot race is one of the World Cup markets I'm most excited to follow. Right now, Polymarket sees the favorites as: > Mbappé - 16% > Harry Kane - 14% > Haaland - 9% > Havertz - 7% > Messi - 6% I've already made my choice. Harry Kane is my main pick. The guy just had an incredible season. The only thing missing was the Champions League trophy. Scoring 50 goals in a season is insane, and I don't think he's done yet. England has a favorable path on paper, and I expect Kane to be among the goals throughout the tournament. My second pick is less about logic and more about hope. Lionel Messi. I simply believe in him. More than anything, I want to enjoy every minute of what could be his final World Cup and see him score as many goals as possible along the way. My Polymarket prediction: Harry Kane or Lionel Messi to win the Golden Boot. Curious what everyone else thinks. Who is your pick to finish as the top scorer of the World Cup, @Stitch3_ai?
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$155M traded by one wallet in 30 days.
No username. No avatar. No Twitter handle.
Just an address: 0x2c33...
Wanna see what he bought?
🇫🇷 France WC winner — 1.7¢ entry. Currently +1,007%
🇪🇸 Spain WC winner — 1.7¢ entry. Currently +719%
🏴 England WC winner — 1.7¢ entry. Currently +599%
And 8 more World Cup nations at the same price.
Either insider, algo, or god.
Either way — he's silent and he's printing.
Isaiev@isaiev_
A Polymarket whale named swisstony is up nearly $11M. 125,066 trades in 12 months. That's 343 trades per day. Every day. For a year. Biggest single win: $711,700. Active positions right now: $3.1M. His World Cup book is already loaded: - $400K on France vs Senegal UNDER 2.5 - $400K on Iraq covering Norway spread - $140K on Senegal +2.5 vs France - 20+ other positions across every match this week This isn't a bettor. This is a machine that prints money on prediction markets. I'm tracking every move he makes through the World Cup. Follow this thread — we'll see where he ends up by July 19th. Bookmark this.
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@ItzChristian6 Yeah, it's incredibly risky, but the risk-reward ratio is just insane
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@polykinder That wll be a mind blowing one... Lol.. is too risky and thats makes it big
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$252,000 riding on whether a goalkeeper will score at this World Cup.
No goalkeeper has ever scored at a World Cup.
92 years. 22 tournaments. Never.
Polymarket puts it at 5% in 2026.
$252,826 already in volume.
English
@DmitriyUngarov Yeah, it's really upsetting to lose that much money in 90 minutes - I can't even imagine what that's like
English
$1,580,000 gone in 90 minutes.
$986K on Over 2.5 goals. $594K on Portugal to win.
One match. Both wrong.
Her bio literally says "Chief Losing Officer."
She's not joking.
I keep staring at this and wondering - what does losing $1.5M in a single game actually feel like?
Polykinder@polykinder
Bio: "Polymarket Chief Losing Officer." $694K on France at 67¢. 0-0 at halftime. Down $190K. Bought another $100K at 48¢ instead of cutting losses. France won 3-1. Position went from -$190K to +$445K (56%). @latinaXBT knew exactly what they were doing.
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@mmoyshaa My pick for today's match is Switzerland, but I'm concerned that Bosnia has drawn its last five matches
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@EagleVisions Don't be discouraged - of these four outcomes, a Portuguese victory seemed the most likely
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really good morning?
this was uncomfortable to learn
Yesterday I built a solid combo with high hopes
3 countries delivered perfectly but Portugal completely ruined it at the last moment
Almost had a clean win but one team away from a nice payout
Start of the day anyway and I start again
EagleVision@EagleVisions
Everyone is watching Ronaldo and Congo is watching the space behind Cancelo Yoane Wissa -> top 15 EPL scorers this season -> built for exactly what Congo will run today: > two deep blocks > absorb pressure > release him in transition > they will not open the gamу and will wait Bruno Fernandes said the dream of this generation is to be world champions well today is match one of that test
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@NeWry24 They've been pushing for this for a long time, I'd like to believe that everything will be okay
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The American gambling industry is trying to shut down prediction markets. And the further it goes the harder they push.
U.S. casino and sportsbook associations have sent a letter to the Senate demanding that the CLARITY Act include an explicit ban on sports and casino‑like prediction markets.
In their view, platforms like Polymarket are basically offering sports bets disguised as financial contracts. They bypass state licensing, player‑protection rules, and the entire traditional gambling framework.
The letter even claims that prediction markets have become the largest expansion of gambling in U.S. history without voter approval or legislative sign‑off.
What do you think about all this where does this fight actually lead?
newry | 𝔽rAI@NeWry24
Polymarket is pushing back against the system again. The platform, together with other industry players, joined the Fair Markets Alliance and filed a lawsuit against the state of Kentucky. The reason? A new 14.25% tax on prediction‑market operator fees. The plaintiffs call it discriminatory and in violation of federal standards. Their main argument: prediction markets are taxed higher than horse‑racing bets and that’s a distortion that hurts the industry and regulated platforms. The industry is growing and it looks like the fight is only just beginning.
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@Lutchyn13 @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketSport A 54% win rate isn't bad at all, considering that many of the favorites didn't win their matches
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Yesterday's World Cup predictions: 1+ and 3-.
Overall World Cup record: 13+ and 11-.
Not going to lie, it was a disappointing day.
Portugal was by far the biggest letdown. I expected much more from a team of that quality.
And then there was Colombia. A goal in the final seconds turned what could have been a solid day into another missed prediction. That's football. Sometimes everything comes down to one moment.
The first round of the World Cup is now complete.
If it taught us anything, it's that favorites won't have an easy ride in this tournament.
A few facts that stood out the most:
> Messi scored a hat trick, tied Miroslav Klose on 16 World Cup goals, and became the oldest player ever to score a World Cup hat trick.
> Haaland made his World Cup debut and immediately scored twice. No Norwegian had ever done that before.
> Harry Kane became the all time leader in World Cup penalty goals and only the second English player after Beckham to score at three different World Cups.
> Mbappé became France's all time leading goalscorer.
> This is Ronaldo's sixth World Cup. At the same time, he has now gone 10 straight major tournament matches without scoring, a personal record he would probably rather not have.
> Cape Verde became the biggest surprise of the opening round. Their 40 year old goalkeeper Vozinha went from around 40,000 followers to more than 11 million after the Spain match.
> Mikel Oyarzabal set a bizarre record against Cape Verde by not touching the ball once during the first 30 minutes.
> Mohamed Salah became the first African player in World Cup history to record a goal contribution on his birthday.
> The opening match between Mexico and South Africa produced 3 red cards, something never seen before in a World Cup opener.
Round two starts today.
Lutchyn@Lutchyn13
Yesterday's World Cup predictions: 4+. Overall World Cup record: 12+ / 8-. Some wins came with a bit of luck, some with a lot of nerves, but that's football. Without moments like these, the World Cup wouldn't be the same. What makes me happiest is that the analysis played out almost exactly as expected. Days like this build confidence and, more importantly, help grow the Polymarket balance. A quick World Cup roundup from yesterday: > Erling Haaland made his World Cup debut and immediately scored a brace. > Kylian Mbappé became France's all-time leading goalscorer. > 40-year-old Vozinha continues his unbelievable rise. After the Spain match, he now has 11.3 million followers, more than Donnarumma. > Lionel Messi tied Miroslav Klose as the all-time leading scorer in World Cup history with 16 goals.
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@nabi_sarvi Yeah, bro - that's a lesson that comes at a very high price
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@polykinder when the thesis misses the pain hits fast but the survivors treat it as tuition on sizing
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@korenssss I've been following the weather forecast for a while now, thanks for the analysis - I need to take a closer look at these profiles
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There are two traders inside this account - on the surface it's a metronome
Underneath, the whole +$25,971 rides on a few tickets that look insane until they print
69.6% win rate across 788 predictions and +$25,971 total profit
Profile: @michi1?via=pavlo-ys0z" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@michi1?via=pa…
Edge ⮕ two modes - both-sides spread-capture on the liquid markets + naked directional when convicted
Where the money came from:
$26 ⮕ $2,062 - [Taipei 21°C, Mar 28] - Yes at 1.2¢
$2,082 ⮕ $3,115 -[ Shenzhen 32°C, Jun 7] - Yes at 44.4¢
$955 ⮕ $2,777 - [Shenzhen 31°C, Jun 11] - No at 34.3¢
&
[Tokyo 20°C Jun 15] - YES at 0.1¢ ⮕ NO at 99.6¢ - net +$2
[Paris 12°C Jun 15] - YES at 0.1¢ ⮕ NO at 99.5¢ - net +$3
[Miami 82-83°F Jun 18] - YES at 0.1¢ ⮕ NO at 99.4¢ - net +$4
Up to dozens trades in one day, then days where a single bet is 95% of the profit
Every city on the board - Taipei, Shenzhen, Tokyo, Shanghai, Seoul, Paris, London, NYC, Ankara
18 trading days in June, all 18 green
One trader farms pennies. The other tradess four figures on a single degree
Same account. Two completely different games
Which one do you think pays the bills?
Korens@korenssss
Other weather bots hunt one edge - this one takes the whole New York board - longshots, locks, both sides A complete NYC generalist - 77.7% win rate, +$19,379 since February, 5 month green streak Edge ⮕ total coverage of one city - New York Profile: @0bot?via=pavlo-ys0z" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@0bot?via=pavl…
546/873 of his trades are NYC temperature bands. Every degree, both Yes and No, every price from 1¢ longshots to 98¢ near-locks He's not exploiting one inefficiency - he just reads NYC weather better than the market, across the whole board The three biggest wins show the range: $2,238 ⮕ $3,079 - [NYC 60–61°F, Apr 29] - Yes at 79¢ $1,395 ⮕ $2,083 - [NYC 48°F+, Mar 7] - Yes at 56¢ $6 ⮕ $598 - [NYC 46–47°F, Feb 26] - Yes at 0.6¢ Three completely different trades, one trader He sizes big on near-locks, pennies on the flyers, and works the afternoon/evening windows when US highs settle Most edges come from going narrow His comes from owning one city completely - 77.7% Both side All prices English
@GutsPoly Great research - I'm going to check out his profile now
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200k on soccer in few days
Athelstan joined Polymarket in 2026 and the account is only 12 days old.
$583.7K PnL from 18 analyzed positions, 0.00% win rate, $381.7K still open.
Volume is already $17.06M, but the sample is still thin.
Main lane: sports.
All time PNL now is 222k
Cant tell about winrate cause of UI problems now
Profile link below
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@mmoyshaa Riki is already a legend in the world of sports predictions
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@DmitriyUngarov With discipline and hard work, you'll have 1,000 Smart Followers - good luck!
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My Kaito card hit different:
9.9k bagholders
100 Smart degens
I’m basically a bluechip micro cap at this point lmao
Next stop: 1000 Smart Followers or I’m ngmi
Kaito AI 🌊@KaitoAI
Influence used to belong to a few. Not anymore. We started by mapping influence in one vertical and grew it to 1M users. Today, we're taking it further.
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@vaticSports Goals scored (including penalties) during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count. Goals scored by a goalkeeper from a penalty shootout do not count. Goals ruled as an own goal will not count
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@polykinder I have the impression this market also involves goalies scoring during the penalties process? Either way though, it seems like something difficult to actually happen, 5% seems like fair pricing
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@Slalomprotocol I think a goal like that is possible in playoff games, especially in the final minutes, just like it happened in the Benfica - Real Madrid match
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@polykinder nice bet, DIBU from Argentina will score a PK for sure if giving the chance against Jordan
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@GoalKickProps It's worth noting that there are 48 teams in this World Cup, and there will be far more matches than in that World Cup, so the probability of this event occurring increases
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@polykinder Is it so high because there's 16 extra knockout stage matches?
That's the only chance it'll happen, a team down a goal in knockouts
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