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$XRPUSD Long Term Update with Elliott Wave counts. Grab a beverage and a snack... I am gonna preach a bit.
It's been awhile since I have posted a long term view. For those who have followed along, you know that I happen to be one of the only (perhaps THE only) TA still around who has analyzed and traded $XRP in real time since 2014. I know every squiggle on the chart.. and more importantly, I was there. Read the sentiment in the market at every long and short term top and bottom. And... with real money on the line near the entire way through. I am a but of a fanatic in this way, but it has afforded me a highly tuned in intuition about patterns.
Now that we have crossed the ATH, and are printing new highs, the short term counts are clearing up the longer term counts.
Below is the XRP chart with my primary long term Elliott Wave count.
✅We are most likely in a large degree 3rd wave up (cycle or super cycle). When completed, we will begin a large correction (at the same degree as 2018 - 2024).
✅Within this wave, we are likely in a sub wave 5 up. This is the final subwave. When it completes... you get the picture.
There are, of course, alternate ways to count the waves. I myself, have at least one strong alt on deck. The labeling will work itself out over time... and some have different connotations as to how high we might go... but what is important is that all of the most likely alts have the same message now. We go up from here.
An important note. In EW counts, if all the alt counts align, I tend to choose the most conservative. It is a risk management choice to help ensure I am always trading with the trend.
Besides Elliott Wave, there is another feature on this chart that I want to dive into. A few horizontal trend line breaks that I believe may be very important.
Many TA's hate diagonal lines... and that I am using them on a LOG chart... well, there are plenty of strong opinions out there. One of the arguments against them is that they break all the time/are unreliable. My view is that the breaks are an important feature... not so much on relying on them not breaking like horizontal support/resistance... but on the likelihood of a retest after they break. I have found through experience over a few decades trading in forex and crypto markets, that backtesting broken trend lines is very common. I am not sure the percentage here, but often enough to get my attention. And, the times a backtest does not happen, price very often still gets pulled toward the broken trend line... even if it does not quite get there all the way (too weak).
Here's my point - I think that XRP may be rallying for a re-test of the trend-line that price broke definitively through back in early 2022.
2018 breakdown/re-test - This isn't the first time a trend line break and re-test has happened in XRP. A similar setup took place in 2018, where we had a breakdown... a quick attempt to reclaim (labeled as a re-test)... and a failure of the reclaim which led to a selloff to the low of that cycle (pandemic low... wave "A" on the chart), and then another re-test back up to the trend-line in wave "B".
A few points about this idea:
✅2022's breakdown happened with a backdrop of a significant macro event... namely a massive shift in the lower interest rate cycle that has been in play for 40 years. Inflation kicked off, and interest rates rose... and rose FAST. Money supply was tightened quickly to try to starve off inflationary pressures. Crypto markets responded immediately, with he result of massive deleveraging (Terra/Luna, Celsius/Voyager/3AC bankruptcies, etc.) on the heels of this abrupt macro environment change.
✅The macro backdrop is important, because these conditions have continued to be in place until recently. As such, Alt's have suffered throughout the early parts of this bull market beyond what has happened when we were in a macro "loose" monetary policy environment indicative of the past 40 year cycle.
✅You can see that weakness in XRP with its feeble attempt at a re-test of the broken trend line in July 2023 ("D" wave). This wave was also highlighted by a landmark victory of Ripple over the SEC, where XRP was judged to not be a security. While we did get a big pop on that day, it did not re-test the broken trend line. Why? because of the feeble liquidity in the market resulting from central banks world-wide still fighting inflation by starving liquidity.
✅Today, the macro environment is different... and it has been so for over a year on the global side. As measured in Global M2, we have seen liquidity expand significantly. Inflation seems to have been largely tamed for the moment, and while the world is still reeling from the effects of the massive monetary inflation hits of the past few years, triggered in large part by the massive money printing during the pandemic to keep the market afloat while the world shut down, many of the worlds central banks have loosened their grip, and liquidity conditions have improved significantly. Of course, famously... the US Fed is still cautious and not lowering interest rates as quickly as most of its peers. However, it does seem likely that lower interest rates are coming.
✅The crypto market is responding to this more accommodative macro environment. And XRP specifically, is benefitting from this and the shift that the Trump admin is championing to provide much needed regulatory certainty to crypto in the US. I don't have to tell you how the price of XRP, and other crypto assets have responded. Alt season is here!
✅The point. The conditions are aligned between the macro environment, the US regulatory environment, and a much more accommodative liquidity policy from central banks than has been present in any way since the breakdown in 2022. Conditions are near perfect for XRP to take its best shot at a re-test of that broken trend line imminently. Will it re-claim the trend line? I don't know, but I see the likelihood much less than whether it will re-test it.
Now that we are in price discovery, there are a host of different targets TA's will have. Some more measured than others. I have multiple step level targets that I am looking at (and have already posted) as we progress toward what I view as the end of this bull cycle.
Worth repeating... my view here is that we continue to push back up to the underbelly of that broken trend line from years prior. Where exactly we touch it will determine our ending price for this cycle, but somewhere in the range of $15 - low $20's.
Of course, as price progresses, I will be sure to post my views as transparently and often as I can.
Please do form your own views, price targets, and risk management plan in the meanwhile... I cannot be more emphatic about this... and congratulations to the #XRPCommunity and those in #crypto wide and far.
The events taking place in the US regulatory bodies now and over the past months are extremely exciting and long overdue. To those of you who have fought directly against the powers that be to help usher in their arrival... my most sincere "thank you" is in order. Not simply because I am better off financially as a result (which is true), but because I believe that the world is better off and more free with a supportive regulatory framework in place for crypto... and that public blockchains now have a real chance to become true utilities for our common use.
Be well...
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