protechtor

$XRPUSD Long Term Update with Elliott Wave counts. Grab a beverage and a snack... I am gonna preach a bit. It's been awhile since I have posted a long term view. For those who have followed along, you know that I happen to be one of the only (perhaps THE only) TA still around who has analyzed and traded $XRP in real time since 2014. I know every squiggle on the chart.. and more importantly, I was there. Read the sentiment in the market at every long and short term top and bottom. And... with real money on the line near the entire way through. I am a but of a fanatic in this way, but it has afforded me a highly tuned in intuition about patterns. Now that we have crossed the ATH, and are printing new highs, the short term counts are clearing up the longer term counts. Below is the XRP chart with my primary long term Elliott Wave count. ✅We are most likely in a large degree 3rd wave up (cycle or super cycle). When completed, we will begin a large correction (at the same degree as 2018 - 2024). ✅Within this wave, we are likely in a sub wave 5 up. This is the final subwave. When it completes... you get the picture. There are, of course, alternate ways to count the waves. I myself, have at least one strong alt on deck. The labeling will work itself out over time... and some have different connotations as to how high we might go... but what is important is that all of the most likely alts have the same message now. We go up from here. An important note. In EW counts, if all the alt counts align, I tend to choose the most conservative. It is a risk management choice to help ensure I am always trading with the trend. Besides Elliott Wave, there is another feature on this chart that I want to dive into. A few horizontal trend line breaks that I believe may be very important. Many TA's hate diagonal lines... and that I am using them on a LOG chart... well, there are plenty of strong opinions out there. One of the arguments against them is that they break all the time/are unreliable. My view is that the breaks are an important feature... not so much on relying on them not breaking like horizontal support/resistance... but on the likelihood of a retest after they break. I have found through experience over a few decades trading in forex and crypto markets, that backtesting broken trend lines is very common. I am not sure the percentage here, but often enough to get my attention. And, the times a backtest does not happen, price very often still gets pulled toward the broken trend line... even if it does not quite get there all the way (too weak). Here's my point - I think that XRP may be rallying for a re-test of the trend-line that price broke definitively through back in early 2022. 2018 breakdown/re-test - This isn't the first time a trend line break and re-test has happened in XRP. A similar setup took place in 2018, where we had a breakdown... a quick attempt to reclaim (labeled as a re-test)... and a failure of the reclaim which led to a selloff to the low of that cycle (pandemic low... wave "A" on the chart), and then another re-test back up to the trend-line in wave "B". A few points about this idea: ✅2022's breakdown happened with a backdrop of a significant macro event... namely a massive shift in the lower interest rate cycle that has been in play for 40 years. Inflation kicked off, and interest rates rose... and rose FAST. Money supply was tightened quickly to try to starve off inflationary pressures. Crypto markets responded immediately, with he result of massive deleveraging (Terra/Luna, Celsius/Voyager/3AC bankruptcies, etc.) on the heels of this abrupt macro environment change. ✅The macro backdrop is important, because these conditions have continued to be in place until recently. As such, Alt's have suffered throughout the early parts of this bull market beyond what has happened when we were in a macro "loose" monetary policy environment indicative of the past 40 year cycle. ✅You can see that weakness in XRP with its feeble attempt at a re-test of the broken trend line in July 2023 ("D" wave). This wave was also highlighted by a landmark victory of Ripple over the SEC, where XRP was judged to not be a security. While we did get a big pop on that day, it did not re-test the broken trend line. Why? because of the feeble liquidity in the market resulting from central banks world-wide still fighting inflation by starving liquidity. ✅Today, the macro environment is different... and it has been so for over a year on the global side. As measured in Global M2, we have seen liquidity expand significantly. Inflation seems to have been largely tamed for the moment, and while the world is still reeling from the effects of the massive monetary inflation hits of the past few years, triggered in large part by the massive money printing during the pandemic to keep the market afloat while the world shut down, many of the worlds central banks have loosened their grip, and liquidity conditions have improved significantly. Of course, famously... the US Fed is still cautious and not lowering interest rates as quickly as most of its peers. However, it does seem likely that lower interest rates are coming. ✅The crypto market is responding to this more accommodative macro environment. And XRP specifically, is benefitting from this and the shift that the Trump admin is championing to provide much needed regulatory certainty to crypto in the US. I don't have to tell you how the price of XRP, and other crypto assets have responded. Alt season is here! ✅The point. The conditions are aligned between the macro environment, the US regulatory environment, and a much more accommodative liquidity policy from central banks than has been present in any way since the breakdown in 2022. Conditions are near perfect for XRP to take its best shot at a re-test of that broken trend line imminently. Will it re-claim the trend line? I don't know, but I see the likelihood much less than whether it will re-test it. Now that we are in price discovery, there are a host of different targets TA's will have. Some more measured than others. I have multiple step level targets that I am looking at (and have already posted) as we progress toward what I view as the end of this bull cycle. Worth repeating... my view here is that we continue to push back up to the underbelly of that broken trend line from years prior. Where exactly we touch it will determine our ending price for this cycle, but somewhere in the range of $15 - low $20's. Of course, as price progresses, I will be sure to post my views as transparently and often as I can. Please do form your own views, price targets, and risk management plan in the meanwhile... I cannot be more emphatic about this... and congratulations to the #XRPCommunity and those in #crypto wide and far. The events taking place in the US regulatory bodies now and over the past months are extremely exciting and long overdue. To those of you who have fought directly against the powers that be to help usher in their arrival... my most sincere "thank you" is in order. Not simply because I am better off financially as a result (which is true), but because I believe that the world is better off and more free with a supportive regulatory framework in place for crypto... and that public blockchains now have a real chance to become true utilities for our common use. Be well...

🚨JUST IN: The @federalreserve has issued a request for comment and notices of proposed rulemaking for payment accounts, also known as the “skinny master accounts” that would allow eligible fintech and crypto firms to gain access to the Fed’s payments system for clearing and settlement purposes. It marks the next formal step in Governor Waller’s payment account implementation process, following the public comment period on the proposal itself that closed in February. Notably, the Fed is also encouraging Federal Reserve Banks to temporarily pause decisions on new “Tier 3” master account access requests until no later than December 2026 (most crypto firms are considered Tier 3) while it finalizes the framework, in an effort, it says, to create more consistency across the system.

@FlixemB Stoch/RSI is more sensitive to short term swings than RSI, leading to more false divergences. I experimented with it for short term trading years ago, but wasn’t useful enough to add.

@protechtor How come the StochRSI on the weekly tells a terrible story?

$XRP Weekly update. We've been watching paint dry for the past few months, and now the markets have starting to move. Taking a look across crypto, in general we look to be well into a productive bottoming process. No clear impulsive wave up on the majors from recent lows to point to a clear trend yet... but productive price basing nonetheless. This doesn't mean you should chase. There are some indicators we are near short term resistance... we could see some selling. My aim is to get you mentally ready if you are looking to position. Let's dive into the XRP chart. I am showing three secondary indicators: Bollinger Bands, MACD, and RSI. We have a bullish cross on both the RSI and MACD... from points at where I expect to see significant bottoms. This doesn't mean we cannot get to new price lows, but if we do, it likely will be on bear fumes... would be watching for bullish divergences and entry points. It is likely we move into an up-sloping range at this point. At or near current lows of the last few months (~$1.14), and ranging up to $1.80, and possibly higher into low $2.20's. There is some resistance above, so I expect these areas to be tested. I visually highlighted the consolidation period in the last bear market and comparing with the last few months to show the pattern. History doesn't always repeat, but worth noting the similarities... if true, they infer a rally in the short term that moves us above the 20 SMA (blue line) towards the $2 area (upper red BB boundary). From an Elliott Wave perspective, I am expecting another leg up to start once the current wave down we have been in (or have recently ended) completes. Mental game: If you have conviction about XRP over other crypto in your strategy, wise to decide on a plan and stick to it. If you are not a short term trader, the shorter term charts (ie. anything below weekly) shouldn't matter to you under most situations... as example... attempting to sniper precise entry/exit price targets.

$CRV Weekly update. Looking perky today. Bouncing off a higher low (vs. ATL printed in 2024). A higher low is critical for a trend change, and in this case, to the bear trend that has dominated this, and many new'ish alts, since late 2021. MACD and RSI both have bullish crossovers. We are above the moving avg (blue). Upper bound is at about .40. On assets like CRV, that have relatively small volume and market cap, big moves can happen fast. Let's see what she can do.

@McClellanOsc I misspoke. Thanks for the correction Tom!

@protechtor Actually, LEAST choppy.

Interesting. Most choppy in the last 30 years at least. Time for a pause.

$BTC.D Update. Been awhile since I have posted anything new on $BTC.D, as it has been mostly sideways action, looking for a direction. I have been following the entire move up in dominance from lows a few years back as a wedge. Similar in structure to the last cycle. Ascending wedges are most often bearish structures, and so a break in the purported wedge starting in 2022 comes with a probability of a decline... likely similar in magnitude as that in the late 2019-21 era. However, the breakdown (in fall 2025) moved sideways vs. down... and there has been very low volatility since then. Alts and BTC have performed similarly. Tighter volatility than at any time since the chart began (inferring a higher vol move soon). Probability favored a move down... However, we now have the start of a move... which happens to correspond where I would expect a parallel trend channel line would show up. They are not like ascending wedges/inherently bearish. They literally define a trend. If this continues, it is bullish for $BTC relative to alts for the foreseeable future.

At Tech Charts I've been focusing on these 8 classical chart patterns over the past 9 years. I have featured 2000+ breakout setups/alerts and all are categized with their reliability numbers under the breakouts page blog.techcharts.net/breakout/

$XRP Daily. From my last weekly update on $XRP. "It (the wave/selloff from the last year) is done or nearly done (2 or B). We are in the middle of a range of support I have watched and shown numerous times for over a year." What follows is the "nearly done" view. We have spent the last 4 months in a tight range/support band. This has formed what appears to be the late stages of a descending triangle. In Elliott Wave terms, if true, this is bearish short term. Triangles typically end with a thrust lower (or higher depending on the direction) which is often quickly retraced. A move like this below the (d) wave low of $1.28 raises the odds here significantly. A breakout above wave (c) raises the odds that a more significant low has already been put in. For longer term, this is noise... unless you are looking to position buys for the next cycle. In either case I expect we are near a significant bottom. x.com/protechtor/sta…

$CVX Weekly. Bollinger Bands are tighter than they have ever been. The low volatility near ATL's wont last forever. In using BBand's for trading the signal comes with a close above or below the upper or lower BBand. RSI moving upwards while price moves sideways gives a slight bullish bias.

Interesting product from @AngelList — retail access to private VC (Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Crusoe). $500 minimum. No accreditation. But read past the marketing. "1% management fee, no carry." True at the USVC level. Keep in mind it's a fund-of-funds. They LP into other VC funds charging their own 2-and-20. Those fees pass through. Net expense ratio: 2.50% (with a temporary fee waiver expiring Oct 2026) Gross: 3.61% No secondary market. Quarterly redemptions at board discretion, capped at 5% of NAV. The prospectus says it plainly: consider shares illiquid. In crypto, we are used to self-custody, on-chain transparency, and exiting positions when we choose. This is the opposite of that... opaque valuations, layered fees, and someone else deciding if and when you get liquidity. The pre-IPO access thesis is real. But this vehicle needs to return 15%+ gross just to net you strong results after fees. That's top-quartile VC performance, on a fund with zero track record. Read the prospectus before you invest. usvc.com/docs

The amount of hacks is going to go up in the very near future as the next series of models are released. The barrier to entry for automation in fraud MO exploitation is coming down. Anything with surface area will be attacked. Be warned. Now Is not the time to be lax on your security measures. Lock it down.

The number of hacks/exploits in this space seems to have increased lately. A good reminder to diversify holdings amongst different sectors in this space so you don’t have all your eggs in one basket. And I don’t mean go pick up 10-15 different assets for the sake of diversification. I mean find 5-10 (max) crypto assets that you have high conviction in and that are at favorable prices to accumulate.

Another LTF triple tap overnight followed by a clean impulsive move through our local resistance zone 🔥 $CRV

All will be well. Lucky Dube said every little thing gonna be alright.

@SharkeyJohnson I appreciate our conversations over the years my friend. You have the patience of a stoic yourself good sir. Hope all is well with you.

@protechtor So appreciate your patience and great analysis!! Thanks, and cheers!

$XRP Weekly. Elliott Wave. I will walk through where I believe we are at in the count and the highest probability move coming next. Brief history: We spent from 2018 - 2024 in a high timeframe (aka degree) symmetrical triangle. Over 6 years. We burst up from the triangle in late 2024 (lower timeframe/degree wave 3 started election night 2024) in a clear, impulsive 5 wave pattern (1 or A). Since then, we have been in a 3 wave expanded flat correction. This flat is at the same timeframe/degree as the 5 wave impulsive move that preceded it. It is done or nearly done (2 or B). We are in the middle of a range of support I have watched and shown numerous times for over a year. What now? At a minimum, there is a high probability we will have another 5 wave impulsive move up that ends above the recent high near $3.70, at the same degree as the correction that has been going on over a year (2 or B). The most common measured target if 2 or B has ended puts us up near $6. This will be a wave 3 or C which often extend. If so, we could see $8-10 or higher. After that, we either have a high timeframe correction multiple years), or another correction at the same degree as wave 2/B... which would be wave 4... and then another impulse higher in a wave five (which likely moves us into the $20's). This last part doesn't really matter right now. The high probability move is another impulse up to new highs. That is what matters. Truth is, if/when we move up in the next wave, if you are planning to swing trade the move, you will have to decide if you want to take profits or not. Invalidation: A price under .39 invalidates this count, but I don't expect we will get near there. We are almost 2 years since the start of this bull run in XRP. We are exploring a higher low by which to start another rally. We have bottomed on weekly RSI and are working on a weekly bullish crossover. This isn't required in Elliottwave, but it is an indicator that is often complimentary in determining the count. It's possible we can hit a new low short term, but if we do, it raises the odds of a bullish RSI divergence. In other words, it would be an ideal entry position (but don't expect it).

@BobaTea64 @Squirrelynest @sammoreprofits Staggered buys in and out is wise.

@Squirrelynest @protechtor @sammoreprofits Anyone not talking profits between $3-7 is crazy. I’m thinking at least 50%, maybe even 70% if we get closer to the $7-8 range.