CyberVan

It's wild to imagine how much foresight and execution went into reaching the point where SpaceX can realistically acquire Tesla, giving Elon total control over the most consequential company in human history.

@Truthful_ast I've watched every launch and expect them to be launching real payload and reliably catching the booster within six months. A rapidly reusable starship could be ready in a similar timeframe. Or it could take years longer...

Prepare for Starship cope to move goal posts like this: Hasn't orbited → hasn't deployed real payloads → hasn't rendezvoused → hasn't refueled → hasn't gone to the Moon → hasn't done crewed flight → hasn't landed on Mars → hasn't built a city on Mars → "This is taking too long, Starship was a waste of money"

@MobofJoggers Especially given the vast difference in energy available per planet, star and galaxy. In the context of how advanced a civilisation is and how far it has expanded, the thresholds would be; Intercontinental < interplanetary < interstellar < intergalactic < interdimensional.

I can't be the only one who thinks measuring harnessed energy on the Kardashev scale to be silly. I, II, and III? It seems like we're need something with a lot more granularity.

My biggest hesitation with SpaceX, is due to Elon's long list of delays. From Starship & FSD, to what seems easy by comparison. Cybertruck, Semi, 4680s, solar etc. SpaceX has a bright future, sure, but it may take longer than promised... We're still a long way from the moon.

@aaronburnett My biggest hesitation with SpaceX, is based on Elon's long list of delays. From Starship & FSD, to what seems easy by by comparison. Cybertruck, Semi, 4680s, solar roof etc. SpaceX has a bright future, sure, but it may take longer than promised...

I find binary spacex takes unhelpful and uninteresting. if you're actually trying to understand where spacex value could ultimately land in the coming years, you should run simulations anchored on the physics constraints of their stated infrastructure plans. SpaceX engineers at the edge of physics, so forecasting those constraints are actually instructive. This isn't a fintech or consumer play where market dynamics swing wildly from week to week and are truly unpredictable. This is hard science and engineering, where truth (in the form of physics) and a little optimism (eg - we won't blow ourselves up in 5 years) can give you a decent view into the future. in this video, I gave a sneak peak at the assumptions page (500 bottoms up variables) of our model and then walked through our value cloud, explaining some of the most important variables. It should provide helpful color commentary beyond the article itself but ou can play with the value cloud yourself here. research.33fg.com/analysis/space… It's worth noting, that despite these big numbers, we have made many conservative choices like minimal to no AI Enterprise market forecast (so far), no P2P logistics, no in-space manufacturing, terminal multiples anchored against peers, 10% WACC (even though Elon has proven lower cost of capital). As such we feel its reasonable to consider our overall numbers conservative, even if we have a lens of optimism. It's possible to get lower numbers of course, but in most cases these are done by handwaving future plans to zero or CAGR based cashflow forecasts based on comparables that don't actually exist. hope it's helpful.

@strengthPlan Are we all just a bunch of donkeys or what? I remember thinking, this is great, I can just chuck it all on Tesla and wait till Robotaxi rolls out. High Conviction and Trust in Elon. Then nothing but delays while everything else went 500%

I put $2 mil in Tesla stock and every other stock went up except Tesla stock #tsla

@Michael_L_Rauch @Rivian @Tesla @cybertruck Here's hoping the we see Cybertruck start to gain more market share with the release if the more affordable trim. It's clearly superior for off roading.

Who would be surprised if I cancel my @Rivian R2 reservations and get a @Tesla @cybertruck ? Outrage, shock or “yeah, saw that coming….” 😂🤣

@StockMKTNewz He's nearly reached stage 1 of his true master plan. x.com/i/status/20682…

At the start of the decade Elon Musk wasn’t one of the top 10 richest people in the world Today Elon is worth ~$1 Trillion more than the 2nd richest person in the world

@Tslachan Just a few more training sessions and they'll be ready to go.

$TSLA Tesla's top priority is the expansion of Cybercab. You may think the wait is getting longer, but the road they change will be etched in history. I still see a shining future. Rome wasn't built in one day..

@TeslaSynopsis All lined up and ready to charge.

Elon is getting ready to send fire to shorts

@MarioNawfal It's hard to imagine Tesla's future, without Grok in it.

In about 3 months or so, Tesla FSD is about to get a very useful next step. Talking to Grok like you would talk to the world’s calmest Uber driver. “Turn right here.” “Drop us off at the entrance.” “Park farther away, we’ll walk.” That is the difference between a car following directions and a car actually being useful. FSD plus Grok is going to feel very different. @Tesla @Grok / Writer: Annette, Designer: Janné

It's hard to imagine Tesla's future, without Grok in it.

@LunarOptimus Incredible! I can't wait to see this vision bought to life 🚀🌛 x.com/i/status/20682…

Worker B's $TSLA 💫🪐🚀 Optimus 🦾

I can't wait to see this vision bought to life 🚀🌛 x.com/i/status/20682…

@Lockyjoon Hopefully all this worrying is for nothing and robotaxi launches at scale first, so we can get a better deal. It will be very disappointing if they rush the merger and only let robotaxi scale after $tsla has been diluted.

일론이 주주의 이익을 생각하지 않는 건 확실히 알았고 테슬라 스엑 합병은 기정사실 아 씨 내돈 아 씨 내6년 ㅠㅠ (본문) $SPCX와 $TSLA 간의 합병을 서두르는 유일한 이유는 SpaceX의 터무니없이 부풀려진 밸류에이션을 이용하기 위해서입니다. 대부분의 IPO는 이와 같은 가격 인플레이션을 겪습니다. SpaceX는 유동 주식이 매우 적고, 유동성을 기다리며 잠긴 대량의 주식을 보유하고 있습니다.

@FreedomFulfill It sure would seem that way. Hopefully robotaxi launches at scale first and we can get a better deal. It will be very disappointing if they rush the deal and only let robotaxi scale after the fact.

The only reason to expedite a merger between $SPCX and $TSLA is to take advantage of the wildly inflated SpaceX valuation. Most IPO’s go through this same price inflation. SpaceX has a tiny float and massive amount of shares locked up just waiting for liquidity

@AdanGuajardo @Tesla @Tesla_AI @robotaxi Very nearly ready to roll!

Tesla is engineering safety right into the Cybercab! A Tesla employee in a production Cybercab simulated a drop-off and pick-up near downtown Austin. He exited from the passenger door, re-entered from the passenger door, and slid over to the driver’s side. The Cybercab’s seats have no middle obstruction, which allows an easy slide across to either side. This makes it safer to exit while avoiding oncoming traffic. The Cybercab can also park very close to the curb and open its butterfly doors upward to avoid scrapping or hitting the curb. This could make it safer to get in and out in certain situations. 📷 @AdanGuajardo

Training is nearly complete!

@Vol888 Let's just chill for a bit.

Cybertruck pattern is complete. The market decides where we drive from here. 😄 $TSLA

@QuanticASI I did more than just bookmark it wink 😉 x.com/i/status/20682…

you should bookmark this

@J90236317 Waiting. Waiting.

테슬라는 사이버캡을 다 만들어놓고도 일부러 팔지 않는다. 기가텍사스 출고장에 사이버캡이 쌓여가는 걸 두고 나온 분석이다. 이유는 단순하다. 사이버캡은 핸들도 페달도 없어서 사람이 직접 몰 수가 없다. 오직 로보택시로 굴려야 돈이 되는 차인데, 무감독 FSD 완성과 당국 허가가 떨어지기 전엔 굴릴 방법이 없다. 올해 초 기가텍사스에서 양산은 이미 시작됐고, 핸들 없는 차를 위한 규제 면제와 주별 로보택시 허가가 마지막 관문으로 남았다. 그런데도 생산 라인은 멈추지 않는다. 노림수는 '한 번에 켜기'다. 수천 대를 찔끔찔끔 풀면 임팩트도 없고 교통·PR 사고만 난다. 반대로 어느 날 갑자기 수천 대가 동시에 도시를 굴러다니면, 그 장면 자체가 거대한 뉴스가 된다. 지금 쌓이는 재고는 그 'D-day'를 위해 장전해 둔 실탄인 셈이다. 진짜 관전 포인트는 생산 대수가 아니다. FSD 완성도와 규제 승인이 맞아떨어지는, 스위치를 켜는 그 하루다.