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@gbrew24 You said 5 hours ago Iran wasn’t going to do anything

Saudi Arabia says that Iranian attacks this week have reduced East-West pipeline capacity by 700,000 bpd. Attacks over the last 40 days have reduced overall production by 600,000 bpd. Statement out today:

@mattyglesias Good tweet

If the ceasfire ends up holding, Pakistan's prime minister Shehbaz Sharif is going to be a shoo-in for the next FIFA Peace Prize.

@P_Remarks Does Trump control Hormuz?

@tbtb062 @Faytuks This is the relevant question. I don’t see how they agree to that. Maybe some goodwill openings to let friendly ships through.

@Faytuks Will the Strait be open during this 2 week ceasefire?

An Iranian source tells Qatar's Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that Iran is leaning toward accepting a two-week ceasefire "out of respect for the Pakistani mediator... and in order to give diplomacy an additional chance" alaraby.co.uk/politics/%D9%8…

@RHFontaine Why would Iran agree to give up its main point of leverage in exchange for…nothing? A ceasefire? A better framing is: who can endure war longer? One side has to be more thoroughly beaten for any agreement to be reached.

The U.S. has reached another big decision point in the Iran war: 1. Tuesday evening is the latest deadline for the President’s promised attacks, ones so severe that “it will take them 100 years to rebuild.” Iran promises to retaliate by striking civilian infrastructure across the region. Both sides know that in an all-out energy war, everyone loses. 2. Trump's three broad options are to (1) declare victory and end fighting, (2) escalate, or (3) cut a deal. He clearly wants a deal and has been signaling that every way possible for weeks now. It would be great for Iran to accept the deal the administration put forward, but it won’t. Iran has put forth its own peace proposal with completely unacceptable terms. 3. Weeks ago, the President might have declared victory and come home, going on to spin the outcome as success (we've already won, they surrendered, the regime has changed, etc.). After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, however, that's not a real option - it'll be clear to all that Tehran controls a key energy chokepoint. That is hardly a victory for the United States and should be considered an unacceptable endgame. 4. It should also be unacceptable to most of the world. The President haranguing allies to jump in the fight has been counterproductive, but he’s right that many countries must resist an Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz. A situation in which Tehran imposes tolls on ships passing through – and could shut down access at any time – enriches and empowers a still-radical regime. 5. That leaves escalation, which seems likely as an effort to move Iran toward a deal. Escalation could include the strikes on power plants and bridges Trump keeps talking about. It could involve sending troops ashore along the coastline that abuts the Strait. It might mean seizing Kharg Island. 6. Even if all that happens, however, it may not solve the key problem, which remains Iranian control of the Strait. Enough military action over enough time will probably render Iran unable to block the Strait. But that could be a long time. 7. As the President’s self-imposed deadline looms, one must also worry about credibility. Trump has several times set deadlines for attacks on Iranian infrastructure and then extended them. Last month he said the US was talking to a top person in Iran and had reached many points of agreement. The President might be sincere now and the Iranians may think he’s blustering - or moveable. 8. They also may prefer once again to ride out the strikes. It took eight years before Tehran drank from the poisoned chalice and agreed to a ceasefire with Iraq. That was the 1980s, but a similar revolutionary ideology still animates the leadership. Regime survival is everything. 9. A narrow ceasefire agreement, in which Iran frees up the Strait but agrees to few or none of the other US demands, is perhaps the likeliest outcome. It might also be the best realistic option. The regime will stay in place, significantly weakened but hardened, bent on rebuilding its civilian and military infrastructure, and believing that it taught the US a lesson. The US will focus on containment, attempt to stop Iran’s military and nuclear reconstitution, and hope for an eventual change in Iranian leadership. The prospect of renewed conflict will remain high.

@DanielTNiles The outcome seems pretty binary: either Hormuz is open, or it not. Seems like Iran won’t give it up, and Trump can’t/wont take it by force. So if you’re basing your analysis on the war being over in 2-3 weeks….just don’t do that.

Last wk, the 12% surge in WTI spot was offset by the 12 month futures contract dropping 6% and Brent -3%. As a result SPX/Nas/R2K/M7 were up 3.4%/4.4%/3.3%/5.1% while the S&P energy sector fell 5.3%. From a longer-term perspective, since the start of the Iran War at the end of February, WTI spot is now up 66% to $112, but the 12 month future contract is up only 11% to $70 (roughly where it was in early 2025) while Brent is up 50% to $109. This expectation of the future path of oil prices combined with tax refunds being up over 10% y/y explains much of why the S&P is down just 4% since the Iran War began. Looking forward, President Trump has said the war will be over in 2-3 weeks. Iran has also put out their terms to end the war. Though the bid-ask spread is wide but both sides are now talking. The Strait of Hormuz is the main sticking point. From a fundamental perspective as Q1 earnings season approaches, most economic data remains solid. As an example, the US March Nonfarm Payrolls released on Good Friday was strong despite all the concerns of AI leading to mass unemployment. NFP was +178K vs consensus of just 60K with the unemployment rate at 4.3% vs consensus of 4.4%. Clearly the rise in oil prices will have some negative economic impact with a lag if it stays high for a long period of time. But by the time we get into the heart of reporting season in the third week of April, according to President Trump’s most recent statements, the US should be done with the war. As a result, spot oil prices should be lower and forward looking guidance may not be as pressured. Then Kevin Warsh, who is supportive of rate cuts, should start as the new head of the Fed in mid-May. The recent decision by a federal judge that there was "essentially zero evidence" of a crime relating to the DOJ probe of Jerome Powell should clear the way for Warsh’s Senate confirmation. As for positioning, my thoughts remain roughly unchanged. Diversification is important. The R2K is up 2% YTD while the equal weighted S&P is up 1% vs the S&P down 4% and Mag7 down 12%. Even before the war with Iran, this type of position was outperforming. Through the end of February, the R2k was +6% with the equal weighted S&P +7% while the S&P was flat with the Mag7 down 7%. Asset heavy AI beneficiaries remain essential. U need to get MESI sectors (Utilities, Materials, Energy, Staples, Industrials) which are up 13% YTD on average and were up 17% YTD before the war with Iran. And finally, I believe with the emergence of OpenClaw in 2026, Agentic AI has finally arrived driving a surge of token generation of 10-100x versus chat-based AI in 2025. $NVDA and $GOOGL remain my favorite ways to play agentic AI while the server microprocessor vendors are key new beneficiaries from the increase in orchestration needed. An example of this optimism is $INTC re-purchasing the 49% of its fab in Ireland for $14.2B last week using a combo of cash and $6.5B in debt that it sold roughly two years ago for $11.2B given its cash crunch. I hope everyone enjoyed the long holiday weekend and best of luck in the week ahead.

@KobeissiLetter Wow, brilliant analysis here

An update on our "Conflict Playbook:" Today marks day number 36 of the Iran War in what has been the most eventful few weeks for markets since "Liberation Day" in April 2025. At the start of the Iran War, on March 3rd, we published our "Conflict Playbook" below. Steps #1 through #8 tracked perfectly. However, since then, the conflict has been stuck between Step #8 and #9, the stage where President Trump makes a deal. A "deal" has been the outcome of 100% of President Trump's conflicts in his second term. However, our original timeframe of 2 to 4 weeks has clearly been proven incorrect. President Trump wants a deal, we hear it almost every day. So, what is causing the delay? The answer is complex. However, we believe it comes down to one key factor: this war is not unilateral like Trump's trade war and tariffs. Given the bilateral nature of this conflict, both sides are actively attempting to increase pressure in an effort to force the other to fold. In fact, Iran's strategic patience to gain leverage and expand control was clearly not an outcome initially anticipated by the US when the war began on February 28th. That said, we stand by our "Conflict Playbook." However, the duration of this conflict will be longer than previous conflicts under President Trump. With midterm elections now just 8 months away, we maintain our view that a prolonged war with higher energy prices, rising interest rates, and prolonged instability is not President Trump's objective. A resolution to the Iran War by May 1st remains entirely possible. And our Conflict Playbook supports this outcome.

@P_Remarks Except buying/using physical oil is different than stock prices which are entirely sentiment driven. Sentiment can change but that doesn’t affect buyers who need oil, right now.

This is like when Covid data peaked and the market started rallying but everyone hated it because vaccine wasn’t approved yet and things weren’t reopened

@Specialist_79 Why do you think IG weekend futures provide any signal at all, other than what a small handful of overly online fintwit freaks think?

IG weekend futures are performing better than traders expected. Here’s why:Trump’s patience is clearly running out—in other words, the war may be approaching its end. We just don’t know how: through a deal or a decisive escalation. The market may respond positively to this.

@TheRealSopata @MarkHalperin Lmao as if that has ever stopped Trump

@MarkHalperin Perhaps; however: It’s 👀OPTICALLY UNTENABLE for a President to 🛫 takeoff for ANYWHERE — on a holiday weekend — within hours of an American servicemember gone missing & in harms way. PERIOD. ⚖️This incident has the capacity to either: AID or COMPLETELY UPEND ☮️ peace efforts.

The biggest tell of the weekend about what is about to happen is NOT the president's bellicose Truth Social post. And it is NOT the reports of additional U.S. aircraft possibly on the move to the region. No, the biggest tell is this: President Trump did not go to Mar-a-Lago this weekend, and he has no public schedule as he stays at the White House.

@NikLentz Is this just some weird tilting at windmills/straw man thing? If so: who is this attempting to caricature?

@AlexHaskell ?

“Trump can’t TACO this one... Iran controls the Strait and he can’t do anything about it.” “Alright... you win... I’ll take the short-term pain and let others deal with it.” “NOOOOOO you have to do exactly what I said you couldn’t do or you’re weak! Don't leave now!”

@assyrianAb @SwingTraderQ It’s comical. She was incredibly bullish into March got destroyed and became super bearish, and remained so until basically the 2026 top. Automatic fade.

@SwingTraderQ lol just counter trade whoever runs this account. He/she was bearish all the way up from April to December and turned bullish in January, that’s when market has started its downtrend

I'm insanely bullish. correction? what correction? $dji $spx $spy

@JustinM_007 @Jake__Wujastyk Whatever it takes is not something that is on the table or possible with 10,000 marines and a divided country. Empty words.

@Jake__Wujastyk I actually think stop the bleeding. Maybe initial fear but we need the straight open, whatever ot takes

Does “Troops on the ground” 1. accelerate market selling or 2. stop the bleeding?

@Jake__Wujastyk @mpk_twit Why do you think Hormuz can be opened with 10,000 marines? It’s farcical. All the Iranians have to do is sink one tanker, and no one else will follow.

@mpk_twit I would have to agree

@CGasparino Cope

Im old enough to remember the MASSIVE protests against how Richard Nixon handled Vietnam, how people flooded the streets, how the media portrayed a country in revolt and then how Nixon won an historic landslide against the left's favorite candidate in the '72 election. I know the situations aren't 100 percent analogous, but if anyone thinks these protests represent mainstream American opinion, I have a bridge the connects Manhattan to Brooklyn to sell you

@DrJStrategy Lol

For the record Ignore the noise: this is NOT the 1970s and Trump is NOT launching Iraq 2.0. High‑frequency data show no demand destruction: Americans are still spending, flying and filling hotels. Inflation expectations are well anchored. The “Iran shock” is a short term volatility trade, not a new regime. The real story is unchanged: Supply Side Policy regime shift, AI capex, an industrial renaissance and the One Big Beautiful Bill are far more powerful than a temporary oil spike. Markets are mispricing a squall as a superstorm. Ignore the noise. Ignore the Doomers. Have a nice day.

@DrJStrategy Bro - put down the crack pipe and stop embarrassing yourself.

For the record. The President is no neo-con; he’s a calculating strategist focused on results, not rhetoric. Once American objectives are secured, he’ll let the Middle East resolve itself on its own terms. His national security doctrine is blunt about the essentials, protect the oil chokepoints, keep the Strait of Hormuz open, and safeguard global supply lines. The outcome could be historic: a 50-year peace in energy markets and the long-overdue collapse of the oil terror premium. Yet Wall Street still clutches its pearls, fretting over daily price moves while ignoring a generational shift. Ignore the noise, take advantage of the volatility, and quell your emotions, a peace dividend is on its way.

@jonathan2hale @PhillipsPOBrien War is politics by other means though innit?

I’ve seen a lot of moronic takes like this. The US military and its ally achieved operational victory on day one with a mass decapitation strike. What follows can be a political decision to withdraw, but that is not the same as military defeat. Mixing the two is analytically useless.

If the US war on Iran ends up with the Iranian regime still in power and Iran able to charge tolls in the Straits of Hormuz, it will be the quickest and most comprehensive defeat that the US has ever suffered—and alarms bells should start ringing loudly about the future of US power.

@Cball4441 @StealthQE4 Do you mean delusion?

@StealthQE4 I envy your optimism 😂

Trump is pulling the plug. Smart move. Bet we rally on Monday.