Steven Martin

@IanCutress With Intels 18A filling up. There aren’t many non legacy fabs left. Samsung’s going to start getting more deals for their top fabs soon

People making noise about Samsung manufacturing IO dies for TPUs as a big shock. Samsung been making a good number of Intel chipsets for generations. 🤷

@intelfabs If the numbers are even halfway close $INTC will be at the trillion dollar cap by then if not sooner.

Bank of America just DOUBLE upgrade Intel to buy!!! Yes, DOUBLE UPGRADE $INTC BofA is modeling Intel as a future AI infrastructure company where foundry + packaging contribute nearly half of the growth story. BofA is no longer valuing Intel as a turnaround. They're valuing it as a future AI infrastructure platform. The foundry numbers are far larger than most people realize (very important) Apple wafers = $10.6B MediaTek TPU = $12.4B Terafab = $8B Other ARM server CPUs = $10B Packaging may actually be more important than wafers (that is ultra pro max important The Cadence 14A mention is actually a bigger signal than many investors think The CPU thesis is much more aggressive than people realize Ownership may be the most important near-term catalyst BofA says Intel is only: 16% institutionally owned, despite being the fifth-largest semiconductor/AI infrastructure company by market cap.

@IanCutress Even older than that I remember having to type in games out of video game magazines as i didn't even have a tape recorder for my computer. I still remember Zork and the Infocom text adventures. It changed my life!

You had a mouse? If my games weren't text, they came on tape and used a joystick.

@IanCutress @awscloud I presume its to keep costs under control and availability at the scale Amazon wants.

@Colosteve2000 @awscloud One could ask why they're not supporting MRDIMM...

It's here: @awscloud Graviton5. ➡️ 192 Arm V3 cores, 1 MB L3 per core ➡️ TSMC 3nm ➡️ 12ch DDR5-8800, 800+ GB/sec ➡️ *96x PCIe Gen6 ➡️ 420GB/s die-to-die bandwidth ➡️ Up to +25% performance vs G4 per core It'll be one of the biggest Arm CPU deployments in the datacenter.

@imnotharsh I think he is tired of being wrong. The puts and calls suggest a price as high as $151 by December. The catalysts keep coming in day after day.

$INTC Intel double-upgraded by Bank of America from Underperform to Buy and raised its price target to $135 from $96. Key Details from BofA’s Note, led by Vivek Arya: - Rationale: Increased confidence in Intel’s server CPU opportunities and external foundry business. - Earnings Outlook: BofA now projects earnings power of more than $6 per share by 2030 (specifically $6.24 EPS estimate), up significantly from the prior $3–4 range. - Valuation Method: They applied a 25x multiple to the 2030 EPS estimate, then discounted it back two years to reach the $135 target. The old sum-of-parts approach (based on 2028 estimates) was seen as under-representing longer-term CPU and foundry potential. Analyst Vivek Arya has repeatedly issued an Underperform (or Sell-equivalent) rating on Intel shares, often with price targets significantly below prevailing market levels. Recent targets have included levels around $40, with reiterations of Underperform even amid positive company developments such as Q1 results or design wins.

@MarkLundeberg I work in logistics. I can confirm tankers can easily implode

So, the 'condensate' name in BEC really is analogous to condensing steam: if we fix the external pressure (instead of volume), it does starts to shrink, though you still need to remove the latent heat. I guess though the container could collapse like this: :-)

Bose Einstein condensation is often depicted as a sudden collapse into a 0-entropy state like the animation below, but that's not true with fixed volume. In fact it's a gradual process as can be seen by the entropy approaching 0 smoothly.

@lousy38623 @MarkLundeberg @IanCutress you asked for citations :) Here you are. embeddedrelated.com/showarticle/14…

@lousy38623 @MarkLundeberg @IanCutress Most automobile chips are legacy nodes. 🚗 Engine Control Units (ECUs) → 40nm–130nm 🚗 Body Control Modules → 40nm–180nm 🚗 Airbag Controllers → 90nm–180nm 🚗 Power Management ICs → 90nm–350nm 🚗 Microcontrollers (MCUs) → 28nm–90nm 🚗 Automotive Radar → 28nm–40nm

A reminder that 90%+ of all fab litho equipment that has ever been made is still being used. ASML claims 95%. For other tooling it's probably around 80-90% too - I regularly get emails from a GF equipment reseller and they seem to cycle through tools.

@TheAIShrink @zerohedge If Oracle drops that much Berkshire Hathaway could just buy the entire company. Thus getting all those data center’s all in one swoop. Don’t tell me Buffet wouldn’t want one last big deal

@zerohedge Oracle's negative FCF = capex sprint, like every big tech company. Buffett looked at the margin timeline and decided: not my show at 94. The rest? Still all-in.

ORCL Free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion for fiscal year 2026,

@lithos_graphein Are they not looking at there own bottlenecks with there tech ? "off-chip I/O data bus bottleneck that severely limits how the Cerebras chip interacts with the outside world"

Doesn't need HBM and "never will." I'm actually surprised there is no China version of this yet bc it's the end route around all the chip litho sanctions. Yes, I know there is research going on here but nothing is commercial yet.

@sv_techie I have been suspecting this as well. I know Warren Buffet is semi retired but this would also be a big time Warren Buffet move!

It will be fun to see who will be holding largest debt in this AI capex madness and Apple is going to scoop them for cheap due to its capital discipline

@tanujDE3180 I would Kobayashi Maru you and choose whatever was the LLM I wanted to use that that time lol!!!

You can keep only ONE for the next 5 years: - VS Code - Cursor - IntelliJ - Windsurf - Vim What’s your choice?

@TheAhmadOsman And this is one of the many reasons there are "rumblings" of blocking Chinese AI that also includes the many top level open source AI out of China. None of them want to compete with someone like DeepSeek!!

Imagine if today all you had was Fable 5 from Anthropic & GPT 5.5 from OpenAI - No Local Inference - No OpenCode : Hermes - No GPUs / DGX Sparks / Mac Studios Just a hostage situation to a few corps willing to rugpull you any sec Now you understand why we need Opensource AI

@KrisPatel99 My opinion is they will win big or lose big. Not a lot of middle ground. 1 reason being any gamer knows how Nvidia rolls. You have the latest greatest GPU and 10 months later the latest greatest model is the must have.

$ORCL I do not have a position in $ORCL BUT out of all the "Hyperscalers" in my estimation, they are likely to be one of the biggest winners long term. While everyone is focusing on the debt and equity issuance, Im looking at the total growth of the business and the profitability that will come from the increase in commoditization of the models. They act as an enterprise model-agnostic platform that other model providers sit on top of. They are using their considerable cashflow to leverage the current build to contract out infrastructure. Not touching it for now until the market wakes up... but eventually it will all make sense.

@BenBajarin My god i thought i was the only one!!! I AM NOT ALONE!!! Sorry about that just happy lol.

I consistently failed my mavis beacon in 5th grade so this is really ideal for me.

@imnotharsh Interesting mix of guest speakers. Obviously Lip-Bu Tan is the highlight for me. The one that caught my eye is Pacific Fusion. I wonder if he will announce any breakthroughs. After all fusion power is the unicorn. Always just a bit out of reach. Hopefully AI can help with it.

$INTC Intel CEO, Lip-Bu Tan will be participating at SF Deep Tech Week in 2 weeks. Topic is called “Battle for the Data Center: The Hardware Powering the Next Trillion in Compute”. - Date/Time: Tuesday, June 23, 2026 (afternoon; exact slot within the agenda) - Location: Deep Tech Week HQ, 945 Market Street, San Francisco Agenda Highlights (including his session): 1. Rebuilding AI Hardware for the Inference Era (panel) 2. Where the Smart Money is Betting on Silicon (panel) 3. Light Speed: How Photonics is Rewiring the AI Data Center (panel) 4. Fireside Chat with Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan The event focuses on AI infrastructure bottlenecks (beyond just GPUs), including power, packaging, photonics, memory, supply chains, as well as where the next trillion in compute value will be captured. It brings together founders, investors, researchers, and hardware leaders.

@tanujDE3180 Your statement is impeccable. I would just like to point out in management most managers aren’t punished for following the trends. They are fired for not following the trends. CEO reads a twitter post and is like why aren’t we doing that your fired All with 2 seconds of thought!

People keep asking: “Will AI replace software engineers?” Let’s do some simple math. A senior engineer at Big Tech: ≈ $400k/year AI spend: - $1,000/day = $365k/year - $5,000/day = $1.8M/year - $10,000/day = $3.65M/year At $10k/day, you’re spending the equivalent of 9 senior engineers every year on tokens alone. So, If AI is replacing engineers why is it starting to cost as much as hiring them?

@ChipsandWafers Sorry posting on mobile I intend to say in a country the politicians prefer over China

@ChipsandWafers If 90% of the phones important pieces are made in China what have we solved with an assembly plant in a more the politicians prefer over China

US smartphone imports from China zigzagging over the past few months. Floating in the 30%'s, down from the average 80-90% pre Trump administration.