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State of play - Day 31. Updated one page snapshot of the war. No real ceasefire movement thus far. The U.S. has knocked off the Iranian navy and clipped their missile capacity. However HEU remains unsecured and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Hold tap to load 4K ⬇️

@TheStudyofWar Every JASM or Tomahawk we let loose is one less in their backyard.

NEW: China is helping Iran reconstitute the Iranian missile program amid US-Israeli efforts to degrade it. Western media reported that China has sent multiple shipments of missile fuel precursor to Iran since the start of the war. (1/2) Iran has been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by the combined force, in some cases returning them to operation hours after strikes, according to recent US intelligence assessments. Iran may be reestablishing access to their launchers hours after strikes, but these launchers are components of a larger system that has been degraded. Reported fear and lack of coordination across some Iranian forces mean that medium-range missile systems are still functioning sub-optimally. Iran’s ballistic missile program is also a military organization that consists of both combat and support elements, and assessing the overall degradation of Iran’s ballistic missile program based on one element of the system—such as launcher availability—is impossible. The combined force has targeted both the combat and support elements, including extensive strikes on research facilities, development institutions, and industrial facilities. China’s efforts to help Iran reconstitute could undermine the combined force efforts to degrade or destroy the supporting elements of the ballistic missile program, however. The combined force targeted the Iran-Iraq border crossing in Shalamcheh, Khuzestan Province, for at least the second time since the war started as part of its ongoing efforts to target Iran’s repressive capabilities. The strikes come amid reports that Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) fighters have deployed to Basij bases in Khuzestan Province via the Shalamcheh crossing. ISW-CTP previously assessed that the regime may be mobilizing PMF fighters, in part, to strengthen control over previous protest hotspots. The combined force also continued to target petrochemical facilities in Iran as part of its efforts to degrade Iran’s defense industrial base and, therefore, military reconstitution capabilities.

@DietHeartNews @DranttiHeikkila This is ultimatum four. He's waffled all over.

Trump’s temper tantrums are exposing his departure from reality. He is threatening to bomb Iran "back to the Stone Age - but claims Iran is already defeated. If the U.S. has “eviscerated” Iran, why then is he demanding that NATO countries help him open the Strait of Hormuz? Lindsey chickenhawk Graham: "After speaking with President Trump, I am convinced he will use overwhelming military force against Iran if they continue to impede the Strait of Hormuz.” [Which was open, unimpeded prior to Trump and Netanyahu’s “Saturday Surprise” attack on Iran.] How delusional, sick and cynically vengeful can this administration get: “We’re bombing them and not bombing them, we’re winning and not winning, we’re talking to them and not talking to them, the Strait is open and the Strait is closed…” Relying on surprise "shock and awe," the Trump and Netanyahu tag team had convinced themselves they could achieve a "quick and decisive victory." They expected to trigger mass protests that would topple the regime. It didn’t work! And now the unintended consequences are coming home to roost.

Hieman historiaa

@alexbward He's been all over the map. Literally day-to-day.

Trump responds to Friday’s events with a threat of escalation. If Iran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, “all Hell will reign down on them.” (Note: Trump has made such threats before and then backed down, citing Tehran’s alleged interest in diplomacy.)

@McFaul My biggest concern remains that we're gutting INDOPACOM, and are ceding the mantle of leadership to China with some odd combination of nationalism and gangsterism without strategy.

Great powers often overreach.

I'm sure that was a long night for the American somewhere on the ground in Iran. Had some hope that we'd see a rescue during that period of darkness. Here's hoping for good news on that front soon

@EODHappyCaptain Oven convert here. ✋ Perfectly consistent and repeatable every time. Sandwich ready. Easy cleanup. 🎯

What is the best way to make bacon? In a pan? In the oven?

@ThomasBordeaux7 @GeoConfirmed @JakeGodin Amazing work. 👏

A video showing people, said to be police officers, shooting at passing US helicopters, was filmed just northwest of Choram, Iran cc: @GeoConfirmed 30.78771, 50.70144 h/t @JakeGodin

@RealSpitfire Not even remotely the truth. It's horror that their lives are at risk at all and we're there to begin with.

Watching Americans root for Iran and against the American pilots who are missing is so grotesque. This is how bad TDS has gotten.

Update 1. The last 36 hours (CENTCOM AOR): F-15E lost, pilot rescued 2x HH-60W damaged A-10 down, pilot ejected (allied) Wing Loong 2 down, Shiraz Likely MQ-9 down, Shiraz Possible MQ-9 lost on CSAR mission. F-16 Squawk 7700, Iraq (safely back) 2x KC-135 Squawk 7700, Israel

CSAR showed some huge balls today. This thing is alot dicer than it may even appear, lots of aircraft are taking fire. One reaper shot down.

@sentdefender Not an A-10. Not denying the A-10 was hit, but this isn't the footage. Wrong airframe.

Video footage published by Iranian state-run media which claims to show the targeting of a U.S. Air Force A-10C Thunderbolt ll earlier today over Southern Iran by a surface-to-air missile, with the A-10 later crashing in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Kuwait, while the pilot successfully ejected and was later rescued by U.S. Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR).

@hissgoescobra @AdamKinzinger @x102reddragon I feel like it's altitude. The CSAR has no choice but to get down and dirty. Not sure if the A-10 was related. But this all feels like a pile on from the downed F15 and getting within small arms or MANPADS range. We all saw the F-18 juke.

@AdamKinzinger @x102reddragon Or at least tactics. Which can count for a lot as they did in Karbala in 2003 with the Apache helicopters. It’s literally insane that we have a president. Who’s just letting the Russians tee off on our people through Iran.

With the news that a second plane, an A10 was shot down (pilot safe) makes me wonder if those recent shipments from Russia to Iran had some new weapons

NEW: The Pentagon has finally added Operation Epic Fury to its online database of U.S. military casualties As of April 3, a total of 365 have been wounded in action: • Army = 247 • Navy = 63 • Marine = 19 • Air Force = 36 Death toll remains at 13 dcas.dmdc.osd.mil/dcas/app/confl…

@TheIntelFrog He's simultaneously bored of this conflict already, and sour it can't be all about him. We remember what he said about John McCain, if anyone in uniform has any doubt about what the commander in chief thinks about them.

🤯🤯🤯 2 aircraft lost in combat with at least 1 crew member unaccounted for at this time...

@ABC Chicago is colloquially known as the "City of Big Shoulders." 😁

Pope Leo XIV will personally carry the wooden cross through all 14 stations of the Way of the Cross at the Colosseum on his first Good Friday as pontiff, marking the first time in decades that a pope carries the cross to every station. abcnews.link/4f2e4yp

I don't think the ability is in doubt. It's the risk. 1. How spread out is the material over how many facilities? Intelligence is imperfect. 2. Zero surprise. This isn't a QRF rushing to the scene of a downed aviator. The Iranians know exactly where material is and the likely landing areas are. 3. Time. Days or weeks holding a perimter(s). In peacetime this op took weeks with the participation of said nation.

@Kingofnowher_e C-130 and C-17 are literally made to land in mostly unprepared landing areas, all they have to do is fly the guys in and they'll clear the area for them to land. Just because a french general can't comprehend our ability to do that doesn't mean we can't do it.

🇫🇷🇺🇸🇮🇷 A French general at Trump’s plan to build a runway inside Iran to fly out uranium under active bombing: “American officials should stop snorting cocaine between meetings.”

Hmmm

@sissenberg @nytimes Yikes

Does the @nytimes know what NATO stands for?

@atrupar Let's hope this isn't relevant.

“He’s not a war hero. He is a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.” -- President Donald J Trump, July 18, 2015