Round Robin

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Round Robin

Round Robin

@EmmanuelSimond

Logique

Switzerland Inscrit le Nisan 2009
263 Abonnements180 Abonnés
Hunter Allen
Hunter Allen@HunterAllen4·
$OCC +17% Just tapped 16 a few minutes ago. Ramping up before earnings Keep eyes x fam
Hunter Allen tweet media
Hunter Allen@HunterAllen4

$OCC Earnings June 8th. This Monday. One of the more interesting disconnects in the AI infrastructure trade. It’s 5x in one year with ongoing losses, who’s to say it can’t 10x from here with backlog orders ramping. Here I am reminding you of this company again. Repost. Bookmark. Subscribe to support. Everyone talks about $NVDA, $AAOI, $GLW, optical transceivers, fiber shortages, and AI data center buildouts. Almost nobody talks about $OCC. That’s what makes it interesting. At roughly a $109M market cap, Optical Cable Corporation remains one of the smallest publicly traded ways to gain exposure to the ongoing fiber and connectivity buildout happening underneath AI infrastructure. The market currently values OCC like a legacy cable company. Management increasingly sounds like a company positioning itself for the next phase of data center expansion. The numbers aren’t explosive yet, but they’re quietly moving in the right direction. Q1 FY2026 revenue grew 4.4% YoY to $16.4M. Gross profit increased 16% YoY. Gross margin expanded to 32.7%. Net losses continued narrowing. Most importantly, backlog jumped to $10.4M, up more than 50% YoY and significantly above prior quarter levels. That backlog growth matters because it suggests demand is accelerating faster than reported revenue. The market tends to focus on reported sales. The smart money watches future sales. That’s where backlog becomes important. The bigger catalyst may be the company’s partnership with Lightera, which not only invested in OCC but also provides access to advanced high-density fiber solutions designed for enterprise and data center deployments. Management isn’t trying to compete directly with hyperscale giants. Instead, they’re targeting Tier 2 data centers, enterprise deployments, multi-tenant facilities, and specialized connectivity projects that still benefit from the AI infrastructure boom. That market is massive. The global data center market is expected to grow at roughly 10-15% annually through the decade, while AI infrastructure spending is growing substantially faster. Fiber connectivity, optical networking, and high-density cabling remain critical components regardless of which AI model ultimately wins. This is where the valuation disconnect starts becoming noticeable. $APH carries a market cap of 170B $GLW carries a market cap above 150B $AAOI trades around $15B and receives premium multiples because investors view it as a direct AI optics winner. $CLFD $LUMN $CIEN $SIVE $OCC sits at roughly $109M. Not $1B. Not $10B. Just over $100M. The market is effectively assuming OCC remains a niche player. The bull case is that OCC successfully converts backlog into revenue, leverages the Lightera relationship, expands further into data center connectivity, and eventually scales toward a $100M+ revenue business with improving profitability. At roughly 1.5-2x sales, investors are paying a fraction of the multiples often assigned to communications infrastructure companies benefiting from AI tailwinds. That’s why some investors see asymmetric upside here. Not because $OCC is currently executing at $AAOI’s level. Not because it’s competing directly with Corning. But because the valuation gap is so large that even modest execution could create significant multiple expansion. Earnings on June 8th matter less for the headline quarter and more for what management says about backlog conversion, data center demand, new project wins, and the trajectory of the Lightera partnership. The company remains highly speculative. It’s still small. It’s still unprofitable. And execution risk remains substantial. But at a ~$109M valuation, the market isn’t pricing in much success. If management proves OCC can become a meaningful participant in the AI fiber and connectivity ecosystem, the current valuation could look very different over the next few years. That’s the disconnect worth watching.

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Round Robin
Round Robin@EmmanuelSimond·
@HunterAllen4 I've seen it like 45 minutes ago And now, it displays a +81% already !
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Round Robin
Round Robin@EmmanuelSimond·
@TW_trades_ It has to consolidate first to the level seen in April, before the FOMO
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TW
TW@TW_trades_·
Anyone want to guess what happens next? $SIVE
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Dimi
Dimi@tsvtxt·
🏡 Looking for a few remote workers / builders to spend a month together in a villa in Sicily or Sardinia. I'm planning to rent a villa somewhere near the coast. Location still TBD, but I've already found a few solid options. The idea is simple: • 4-5 people max • Fast internet is non-negotiable • Private rooms • Work during the day • Dinners, beach, hikes, gym, random conversations after work • No party house, no startup-bro circus Estimated cost is around €800/month per person for accommodation. Food, flights, car rental, etc. would be separate. I'm a software engineer building SaaS products remotely and I've realized working alone from cafés all the time gets old. It would be nice to create a small group of interesting people who enjoy building things, working remotely, and occasionally touching grass. If you're a founder, developer, designer, marketer, freelancer, or just someone doing meaningful remote work, drop a comment or DM. Planning for 1 month initially. 🌊💻
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Round Robin
Round Robin@EmmanuelSimond·
@diapsalmata_0x Usually, as soon as they opt, if it's been up , they take the profit. Here, during this weekend, this accumulation will be taken as soon as NY opens. It's like this for months!
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Aegon (perps era)
Aegon (perps era)@diapsalmata_0x·
gonna wait for NY open to actually think about positioning on btc.
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Perseus
Perseus@PerseusLeGrand·
Beaucoup ici veulent défendre le Beau, le Bien, le Vrai. Et il est de notre devoir d'agir, créer, aider. Des associations, des fondations, des maisons d’édition, des think tanks se battent chaque jour pour faire émerger une autre vision du monde. Ils ont besoin de visibilité, de soutien. Vous seriez prêts à les suivre et m'aider à les faire connaître ?
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Round Robin
Round Robin@EmmanuelSimond·
@theaveragegal__ A trap. Look at what's happening right now in Japan! They are all forced to liquidate!
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Round Robin
Round Robin@EmmanuelSimond·
@fundmyfund It's a trap. OBV is plunging, and they will scalp you just after market opens
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philz1337x
philz1337x@philz1337x·
Crystal is now the largest image-upscaler API in the world I've increased the output limit to 1.5 gigapixels, which is 38K 😂
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Round Robin
Round Robin@EmmanuelSimond·
@Topsy_and_Tim @ParadisLabs But you're basically right. All those accounts primarily thinking about getting engagement before all, like an echo chamber, whatever the situation is.
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Maximillion
Maximillion@Topsy_and_Tim·
@ParadisLabs No insults my guy. Genuinely surprised to see this level of positive conviction today all things considered. Maybe I’m off and perhaps I’m in an X algorithm feedback loop, and if that’s the case, I sincerely apologize for my pointed questions.
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Paradis Labs
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs·
Stock Ratings [June 7th]: On current AI sector crash. Explanations below. Strong Buy: $GOOGL $MU $SNDK SK Hynix Buy: $AMZN $AEHR $AAOI $CIEN $COHR $CRDO $DELL $FN $FORM $GLW $JBL $LITE $MDB $MRVL $MSFT $NBIS $NOW $NVDA $RDDT $RKLB $SIVE Hold: $ARM $ASML $AVGO $AXTI $BE $META $MTSI $PLTR $SOFI Avoid: $CBRS $CRWV $ETH $HIMS $IBIT / $BTC $IREN $MELI $SNAP $TSLA $SPCX (SpaceX) IPO --- Thoughts: Strong Buy: GOOGL - $85B raise is dilutive but they actually have ROI on their capex. Tbh, they'll probably always be a Strong Buy for me. Just the cleanest AI ROI among all the megacaps. MU / SNDK / SK Hynix - If you're not bullish on memory, then idk for you. Buy: AMZN - Mainly for AWS reacceleration + Trainium. But some tension comparing AWS growth (+17%) vs Azure (+31%). Feel like custom silicon + distribution combo is durable even if growth rate lags a bit. AEHR - H2 ramp in WLBI/PLBI systems coming, anchored by "significant" follow-on Sonoma order from lead hyperscale customer. Just need to wait a bit esp. for rev to inflect. But AI ASIC burb in is mandatory as device power goes up. AAOI - Q3 capacity ramp (via facility expansion in Texas) toward 650k+ 800G/1.6T units/mth. Capacity coming online is the catalyst imo along w/ already known laser bottleneck + Made in US premiums. CIEN - Just a high quality biz that got pounded last week (-22%). Beat + raise earnings, but stock dropping this much is an overreaction. CEO even said demand is "structural, multi year and AI-driven" shown by AI-driven DCI being their fastest growing part of the order book as new long-haul routes get built for latency and bandwidth. COHR - upcoming CPO ramp (Nvidia spectrum-x) will speed things up, these prices will look cheap when we look back imo. CRDO - Personally bought a ton last week post-earnings drop. Like Ciena, v. high quality compounding hold through the whole AI supercycle. Crazy high margins. Obviously compete w/ Marvell/Broadcom on SerDes, but also need to factor in the 1.6T switch replacement cycle into late 2026. DELL - Trump effect. I've learnt my lesson and will listen to him next time. FN - v. low drama way to ride transceiver demand + iPronics sipho line for cpo. New datacom wins also extending into next FY, although some Nvidia conc. risks. Put them in Buy just to be generous as was unsure tbh. FORM - Important for HBM, adv packaging and CPO for higher yields. Foundry test intensity only set to increase w/ production. GLW - Lead glass core substrates which are an advanced packaging bottleneck. LTP w/ Nvidia to expand US optical manufacturing for AI infra too. JBL - Stock has done nothing for a month, but earnings coming up could be a nice catalyst for a push higher from their DC infra segment growing + outpacing drag from legacy mobility/ev exposure / margin mix. LITE - CPO ramp + Nvidia qualification like Coherent. MDB - AI is not replacing them. Imo they win vs. bolt on vector stores since their architecture is so simple. MRVL - going to $1T according to Jensen. Underlying business is solid though esp. w/ Celestial acquisition for photonics. SPY inclusion last week too is a big positive. MSFT - Current valuations are a joke tbh, markets probs punishing some margin compression. Rev +18%, Azure +40%, AI run rate +123%. So, v. clear enterprise monetisation path. Will be buying next week in retirement account. NBIS - Best neocloud by far. They're a $100B biz vs. ~$57B currently. Jensen: "Nebius will take care of you." NOW - AI is not replacing them. No enterprise CEO/CTO is dumb enough to offboard them at this point. NVDA - Same as Microsoft. Been buying this whole time, but am now even more confused at current cheap valuations. RDDT - AI is not replacing them. Cash printer. ARPUs improving also in legacy segments like international. RKLB - #2 in commercial launch after SpaceX + their IPO should re-rate the entire space comp set where RKLB is the main liquid proxy. Unbelievable earnings also, just executing so well rn. SIVE - everyone on X knows at this point? Hold: ARM - current valuation prices in flawless execution imo. But their IP is growing in DC CPUs e.g. Nvidia grace, AWS Graviton etc. ASML - Elon said yesterday: "ASML should be treasured and supported. It is arguably the greatest company in Europe." - I agree. Also Terafab fireside chat next week High-NA EUV is the next leg, locking in the roadmap through the decade. Could also be a "Buy" for more risk averse people. AVGO - CEO didn't raise >$100B FY27 target + flagged that Google will multi-source. Current AI mix is also diluting margins slightly. Just needed a pullback before the thesis starts working again. AXTI - InP substrate bottleneck, crucial for AI buildout rn. Could also buy rn, just a slow dca since they've run up a ton already + raise completed ($632M) to 2x InP capacity. BE - SOFC winner imo (Ceres 2nd). Don't think it's a buy just yet due to some valuation vs. profitability gaps. META - hold based on capital allocation mainly. Market seems wary of the ROI on their AI capex hence the continuous dips. Also potential raise to fund capex like Google too - once that digests, I'll personally look to buy. MTSI - Big fan of their investment into $IQE since it de-risks operations a lot, but just think COHR/LITE are better options for 800G/1.6T transition. PLTR - Relatively poor Risk:Reward at current multiples. SOFI - rate sensitivity. Loan book + credit performance carry macro risk which caps conviction rn. Some positives though w/ young + growing member base. Would need to look at credit trends + Fed path in June FOMC to re-assess. Avoid: CBRS - avoid at current prices. Would want it to come down closer to ~$40B mc before I look to dca. Would love to hold since they own genuinely unique tech. CRWV / IREN - Financing for both is a mess...debt/dilution. Nebius are just a better multi yr neocloud. HIMS - Forced out of higher margin GLP1s into lower margin braded GLPs from Novo/Lilly. Feel like their moat was to do w/ regulatory arbitrage on compounding. With that gone, it's a customer acquisition + churn biz buying branded drugs at lower margin. IBIT / BTC - Macro setup is hostile. Higher rates for longer (10Y ~4.54%, 30Y >5%) raise opportunity cost. Pure liquidity/risk appetite instrument + both are tight rn. ETH - same as bitcoin. MELI - personally a little confused - either a hold/avoid. Seeing some margin compression via their credit book growing faster than revenues. Talks of margin recovery next year, at which point the stock could re-rate. SNAP - Absolute worst social media app + CEO is a weirdo. Platform keeps losing share to Meta/Tiktok. TSLA - Huge competition from other EV makers shown by production > deliveries volumes. Humanoids will be their next key growth driver, just a little while away. SPCX (SpaceX) IPO: I never personally participate in IPOs + SpaceX specifically is way too overvalued for me. Will be going long eventually though. Rough ballpark would be ~$1.5T if it gets there post IPO. --- Just for very high level notes at current stock prices (NFA). I'm personally staying long despite the current macro backdrop, mainly in AI supercycle names e.g. memory, semis etc. But then you also have great companies at depressed prices, mainly in SaaS which I'm DCA'ing currently. I don't hold positions in all of these names. This is just a subset that overlaps my "Close Tracking" list + X's favourite names.
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Round Robin
Round Robin@EmmanuelSimond·
@philz1337x @Chilka_ The very same way it's been done for a decade already! bilinear/bicubic interpolation
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1NORTH
1NORTH@1NORTHDOTXYZ·
@philz1337x First we generated images. Now we're generating details that never existed.
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David
David@dayonefoundry·
We need to talk about this: I've been living in Da Nang for 2 years now and met many indie hackers trying to make it The number of indie hackers I can name that have actually succeeded is 0
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alexjoo
alexjoo@alexjoo·
Experimented with Codex with a brand new ideal thought of at the gym this morning. Cognitive Bias Detector (ie: Bullshit Detector). alexanderjoo-max.github.io/isthiscap.com/ Paste messages, emails, etc., and it searches for 108 cognitive biases. Then tells you how full of shit the writer is 😅
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