B Murphy

Imagine being bearish on $MSFT here. Price has already pulled back nearly -40% straight into a major HTF horizontal support zone. Weekly RSI is now more oversold than the 2022 bear market lows and the April 2025 tariff flush. At some point, you have to ask yourself: are you analyzing the chart…or just chasing the narrative? Hard to find a better value setup anywhere in the market than this name right now.

Just closed my entire $POET position at 8.52, locking in over 40% profit. Right now, the risks heavily outweigh the rewards. The lack of transparent information from management makes it impossible to justify holding further. I’d rather come back in six months or a year even at a much higher price, but with confirmed revenues and high volume production. Until then, the uncertainty is too high. Don’t fall in love with a stock, but don’t hold a grudge against it either. This is strictly business. Farewell, $POET.

$POET down nearly 50% - Sell or Not to Sell? A crash this sudden is rare. What actually happened? Reports are surfacing that $MRVL canceled all $POET orders originally placed via Celestial AI. ➡️The stated reason: NDA breach. Last week, POET’s CFO confirmed the Marvell collaboration in a Stocktwits interview. If he disclosed confidential info knowing an NDA was in place, it’s a massive blunder. But here’s the thing: Did we actually learn anything new from that interview? Thomas Mika basically confirmed what the market already suspected and what was already sitting in the 20F filings. Did that really "hurt" Marvell enough to kill the orders? The whole situation feels off. I’m not seeing major formal notifications of an NDA breach yet. Until we get official PR, we’re just guessing. But when a company has a history that isn't exactly "crystal clear" and its valuation is based purely on future partnerships, this is what happens when bad news hits. ➡️Can this bury $POET? It’s definitely not good. When you only have a few Tier-1 players as potential customers, losing one significantly weakens your leverage with the others. ➡️Then there's the "stink": The technology is exactly the same as it was 2 days ago. The product didn't change. But the company’s credibility did. Future contractors will now demand better terms because they know POET is backed into a corner. ➡️Why did Marvell pull the plug now? They didn’t have to cancel; they wanted to. In business, an NDA breach is often just a convenient exit. Marvell has been hiring for roles that suggest they want to build this internally (vertical integration). They might simply want to own the space rather than depend on POET. ➡️ If they see POET as a threat they need to build against, that’s actually a backhanded compliment to the tech. ⬇️ My move: I haven’t sold a single share, but I’m not buying yet either. I’m waiting for official communications. This isn't a great spot for any investor to be in, and everyone has to make their own call. You couldn't have predicted this one.

Not the best way to start my Monday. $POET down almost 50% after $MRVL cancelled all the orders for Celestial AI. The reason? POET breached the NDA last week. The NDA is a confidentiality agreement between both parties to keep the cooperation secret. After the short report, the POET management tried to appease investors by confirming the purchase order of Marvell. One of the most stupid decisions, certainly if you know you have an NDA. The only positive here is that the cancellation is not about the technology. On the other hand, the fact that they pusher POET aside so quickly, means that they believe they have other solutions available imo. I need to let this sink in for a minute. Not selling my shares atm.