ElleGee

I wrote this piece to introduce #Web3 to my normie friends. It includes: 3⃣ Definitions 🔟 Present-day benefits 🔟 Future possibilities No jargon... just first-person, benefit-oriented statements to keep it relatable. bit.ly/Web3Expl

@BrianRoemmele This video is scandalous! 😜

1985, Franks. The future may think this is AI, but not the models I build. Trained.

@DariusDale42 @WSJ @FinancialTimes @barronsonline @CNBC @Bloomberg @FoxBusiness @federalreserve Darius, if we had more people with your level of rigor class, the world (or at least FinTwit!) would be a better place. Thank you for a shining example of how to respectfully and factually express a dissenting opinion. 🫡

If anyone has friends on the editorial teams of the @WSJ, @FinancialTimes, @barronsonline, @CNBC, @Bloomberg, or @FoxBusiness, please have them reach out to exclusively feature this timely OpEd I just penned regarding the @federalreserve after their policy mistake today. Enjoy! --- The Honorable Jerome Powell Chair, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW Washington, DC 20551 Dear Chair Powell: Why did you cut 100bps last fall but claim to see little reason to cut 25bps today? It can be argued that your political posturing will all but guarantee the Fed’s independence is at least marginally eroded by the upcoming series of appointees to the board — including your replacement. The increasingly likely erosion of Fed independence may prove to be more significant than “marginally,” and here’s why: It is reasonable to question your data dependency because the labor market is worse now than it was then. Private Sector Labor Income grew 4.7% on a three-month annualized basis in Aug-24 — the last report you had on hand before your jumbo-sized 50bps cut last September. FWIW, 4.7% is comfortably above the pre-COVID trend of 4.3%. Fast forward to today, Private Sector Labor Income grew just 1.4% on a three-month annualized basis in June – the lowest rate since Jun-20. The -370bps MoM deceleration marked the slowest rate of change since May-22. It is also reasonable to question your data dependency because inflation is lower now than it was then. The Super Core PCE Deflator — the inflation metric over which you purported to have the most control as monetary policymakers — was reported at 2.2% on a three-month annualized basis, 2.8% on a six-month annualized basis, and 3.2% on a YoY basis in Jul-24 (mean = 2.7%) — the last report you had on hand before your jumbo-sized 50bps cut last September. The Super Core PCE Deflator is currently mired in a downtrend at 1.1% on a three-month annualized basis, 3.1% on a six-month annualized basis, and 3.1% on a YoY basis as of May-25 (mean = 2.4%). To be clear, we are not even advocating for cutting the policy rate. We do not believe the economy requires rate cuts for the business cycle expansion to persist over a multi-year time horizon and have remained the most bullish non-permabull on global Wall Street since May 3 (Google search or ChatGPT query “Paradigm C” for details). What we are advocating is that you drop the “Mr. Tough Guy” act on inflation. You had no problem being the most dovish Fed chair since the advent of using the policy rate as the primary tool for conducting monetary policy. Arthur Burns’ trough spread of -720bps below what would have been the baseline Taylor Rule estimate at the time looks hawkish compared to your trough spread of -1,040bps in Feb-22 — when you were still performing quantitative easing into a 40-year high in inflation. You had no problem growing the Fed’s balance sheet to a peak of 36% of GDP in Nov-21 — a year in which the federal budget deficit clocked 10% of GDP, after a whopping 15% in 2020. These figures compare to just 5% in 2019, 4% in 2018, and 3% in 2017. The current Fed balance sheet/GDP ratio of 22% is still well north of the long-run mean of 16% for this time series — data which features your ultra-dovish focus on “maximum and inclusive employment” and green-energy-supportive monetary policy. We do empathize with why you’re acting tough on inflation. Respectfully, sir, you are 72 years old and like most people in their 70s, you may be succumbing to the understandably human desire to build and preserve your legacy. Additionally, the Trump administration’s tariff policy shock is significantly larger than anyone expected. Per the Budget Lab at my alma mater Yale, the overall average effective tariff rate of 18.4% is the highest rate since 1933. At some point this will feel like inflation as affected goods finally pass through the system. But the preponderance of credible academic literature concludes tariffs aren’t inflationary. The PhD economists at your own institution agree — or at least they did agree prior to President Trump’s second ascent into the Oval Office, but that’s neither here nor there. What is relevant here is the slowdown in Real Services PCE, which grew a paltry 1.1% on a QoQ SAAR basis in Q2 — just one-third of the 3.0% rate recorded in 2024. Real GDP ex-Government & Net Exports contracted at a -3.2% QoQ SAAR pace in Q2, the lowest rate since the COVID lockdowns of 2Q20. There was a sound economic case to be made for lower policy rates today — we wouldn’t have had two Fed governors dissent for the first time in 32 years otherwise. Specifically, the labor market is likely to weaken further on a lag to the near contraction in capex observed in the Q2 GDP data (0.4% QoQ SAAR vs. a pre-COVID trend of 3.5%), slowdown in corporate profits growth (S&P 500 constituents 6.4% YoY Q2-to-date vs. 13.6% in Q1 and 11.3% in 2024), and persistently elevated policy uncertainty (e.g., highest ever yearly average for the Baker, Bloom, and Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty Index — a time series that includes data from both COVID and the GFC). There is an equally unsound economic case to be made for keeping policy rates cyclically and structurally elevated today: the risk of “unanchoring” inflation expectations. Putting aside the fact that we do not believe the mere ‘unanchoring’ of inflation expectations can cause persistent above-trend inflation in the absence of persistent above-trend credit growth in either the private or public sectors, Chair Powell, you and your colleagues are the primary reason this risk exists. You let the inflation genie out of the bottle by running historically expansionary monetary policy amid an obvious and historic expansion of fiscal policy. This is why we strongly believe the administration is right to pursue regime change at the Fed. Whether or not they get it right is irrelevant at this juncture. Time will tell on that front. Lastly, please do not interpret this as a personal attack on you or the institution. Rather, this is a data-driven perspective on how you and your colleagues at the institution have failed the American public and continue to fail the American public. Heaven forbid the FOMC be held accountable for the dramatic outcomes it contributes to in our K-shaped economy and asset markets. Anyone reading this would be a fool to not agree that better monetary policy can potentially help engineer better outcomes for the consumers and businesses trapped on the bottom part of the “K”. There are obviously no guarantees that the pending regime change at the Fed will accomplish this goal — or in life in general, save for the fact that two wrongs don’t make a right in Fed policy mistake terms. Thank you for reviewing, and thank you for your service to the American public. Regardless of whether you and I see eye to eye on your still-developing track record, I recognize how hard your job is and appreciate your efforts nonetheless. Thank you and God bless, Darius Dale, Founder and CEO of @42Macro

@JDVance Valid points in both arguments here - anyone else agree that negotiations would be well-served by @nfergus's perspectives in an advisory capacity?

This is moralistic garbage, which is unfortunately the rhetorical currency of the globalists because they have nothing else to say. For three years, President Trump and I have made two simple arguments: first, the war wouldn't have started if President Trump was in office; second, that neither Europe, nor the Biden administration, nor the Ukrainians had any pathway to victory. This was true three years ago, it was true two years ago, it was true last year, and it is true today. And for three years, the concerns of people who were obviously right were ignored. What is Niall's actual plan for Ukraine? Another aid package? Is he aware of the reality on the ground, of the numerical advantage of the Russians, of the depleted stock of the Europeans or their even more depleted industrial base? Instead, he quotes from a book about George HW Bush from a different historical period and a different conflict. That's another currency of these people: reliance on irrelevant history. President Trump is dealing with reality, which means dealing with facts. And here are some facts: Number one, while our Western European allies' security has benefitted greatly from the generosity of the United States, they pursue domestic policies (on migration and censorship) that offend the sensibilities of most Americans and defense policies that assume continued over-reliance. Number two, Russians have a massive numerical advantage in manpower and weapons in Ukraine, and that advantage will persist regardless of further Western aid packages. Again, the aid is *currently* flowing. Number three, the United States retains substantial leverage over both parties to the conflict. Number four, ending the conflict requires talking to the people involved in starting it and maintaining it. Number five, the conflict has placed--and continues to place--stress on tools of American statecraft, from military stockpiles to sanctions (and so much else). We believe the continued conflict is bad for Russia, bad for Ukraine, and bad for Europe. But most importantly, it is bad for the United States. Given the above facts, we must pursue peace, and we must pursue it now. President Trump ran on this, he won on this, and he is right about this. It is lazy, ahistorical nonsense to attack as "appeasement" every acknowledgment that America's interest must account for the realities of the conflict. That interest--not moralisms or historical illiteracy--will guide President Trump's policy in the weeks to come. And thank God for that.

@realdogenews Can we turn this into a reality series a la "Survivor?" Advertising revenue becomes the severance funds pool - providing incentive for maximum entertainment.

@donnelly_brent Came through just fine for me...hopefully it was just a micro-nap. 😄

Friday Speedrun You might not get this in your inbox this week as my email service has taken a dirtnap so please retweet thanks. spectramarkets.com/amfx/peachy/

Called this new @FortuneMagazine headline a year and a half ago! 😊 fortune.com/2024/05/10/bum…

@elonmusk Hollywood should be embarrassed by the constant stream of these boring reheats -- the industry is ripe for more disruptive indie creativity and storytelling. AI-enabled video tools should speed this along.

@InvestVerified @tokenmetricsinc @Decentrader has put a lot of careful thinking and analysis into their proprietary crypto indicators!

We're giving away a One Year subscription to @tokenmetricsinc! To enter, please answer the question below: Who is one pro in the #Crypto or #Stock world you'd like to see us collaborate with! The winner will be announced on tomorrow's Gameplan!

@InvestVerified EDV long duration treasuries.

We are giving away a subscription to the Winning Trader Series (a $10,000 value)! To enter, please answer this question: What is your favorite thing to trade? (A specific stock, crypto, commodity)

@adamtaggart Your audience is smart and financially savvy. If 30% of them are "no idea/don't care," I hope that means we tech-forward nerds are still early. 😉

The next Bitcoin halving will happen on Friday How big of a deal is this?

@InvestVerified Top crypto analyst, hands down. Happy halving!

We are giving away a secret mystery prize to be announced later today! To enter, please answer this question: Would you rather work on Wall Street as a banker or a top crypto analyst for the next few years?

@gladstein Nobody buys anything with gold, either, but central banks put it on their balance sheets by the ton. 🪙 I guess he conveniently forgot that part. *eyeroll*

"When will the Fed put Bitcoin on its balance sheet? You already said on record that you have an unlimited supply of dollars, doesn’t it make sense to trade some of them for a currency with a hard cap?" Incredible clip Kashkari's answer will be studied by future historians

@InvestVerified This is crypto-specific, but one trader who has done a lot of proprietary work on signals is @filbfilb of @decentrader. Thanks for all the great info, Gareth and team!

We are giving away a subscription to the Winning Trader Series (a $10,000 value)! To enter, please comment below and tag one trader you’d like us to work with! The winner will announced on Monday!

@InvestVerified @tradingview Gave a 100+ yo antique piece of furniture some TLC, and thought about the role it played in its original owners' lives. Prior generations may be gone, but have left us beautiful artifacts that we can help preserve and protect. ♥️

What’s something you did this weekend that made you appreciate life? Leave your comments down below for tomorrow’s #giveaway where we are giving away a 1 year subscription to @tradingview!

@ecb Sorry guys, propaganda doesn't work too well on the new @X.

Bitcoin has failed to become a global decentralised digital currency, instead falling victim to fraud and manipulation. The recent approval of an ETF doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is costly, slow and inconvenient, argues #TheECBBlog ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/dat…

@coinbase Your brilliant creative team makes this advertising professional smile. 🙂 Such an invigorating breath of fresh air amidst a vast ocean of lazy, me-too marketing tropes. Please post a photo of the ADDY award when they win it!

The penny… $1.2 million worth of them go missing every year. It costs nearly 3x the value of one just to make one. And it’s been 167 years since its last update. Thankfully, crypto can move the penny forward. Right, Abe?

@julie_mo Right?! When I got my advertising degree eons ago, that is ALL we studied - clever words and visuals that conveyed a powerful, memorable message. The latest Coinbase campaign is a notable exception -- they nail the brand promise with compelling "old school" creative.

👏🏼 What 👏🏼 happened 👏🏼 to 👏🏼 creative 👏🏼 ads 👏🏼 without 👏🏼 celebrities 👏🏼

@MichaelAArouet Hmmm... correlation between zero childbirth and national debt? Using the latter as a proxy for wealth divide...could be something. 👀

That’s an amazing trend. What is driving it?

@ARKInvest's 2024 Big Ideas report is excellent, everyone should download/read it. EASIER: Using logical extrapolation on how these 5 technologies may converge. HARDER: Expecting fully novel surprises, with concepts and solutions that profoundly shift society & the economy.

Epic assessment, with data! Thank you, @yassineARK. Many dissenters judge without the broader, multi-disciplinary knowledge, which is understandable as it's a tall order. Or they judge based on today's headlines instead of with a long-term, trends-based horizon.