@RealJimChanos Jim, youre such a doomer if he had done that your tweet would read “Why wouldn’t he do this outside the $AMZN umbrella, like he did with blue origin?”
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Idea Lab
255 posts
Idea Lab
@_Idea_Lab
Here to think out loud
New York, NY Inscrit le Mayıs 2024
598 Abonnements116 Abonnés
Why wouldn’t he do this under the $AMZN umbrella, like he did with AWS?
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ
Breaking: Jeff Bezos is in talks to raise $100 billion for a new fund that would buy manufacturing companies and use AI to automate them wsj.com/tech/jeff-bezo…
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Weak ratio. Sad! The navelgazers must be distracted?
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Idea Lab retweeté
Marcus Aurelius, Meditations, X.16: “To stop talking about what the good man is like, and just be one.”
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@HalvioCapital @MikeFritzell How do you get around the stock liquidity? I’m seeing $87k in daily liquidity and they’re actively buying back shares to reduce the float even further?
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Good overview of SE Holdings 9478.T
I wrote about it in my Q3 letter. The company is a buyback machine that started prior to the TSE reforms but ramped it up even more since.
Safe&CheapStocks@SafeCheapStocks
Net-Net at 70% NCAV with consistent, growing FCF. Buying back ~2.75% each quarter. Investment portfolio 10x since 2015. open.substack.com/pub/safecheaps…
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Idea Lab retweeté
There is no substitute for the person who Knows What To Do.
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@CliffordSosin @Afinetheorem Computers were supposed to take over a lot of accounting jobs, but don’t we have more accountants now than pre-computers?
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I’d potentially take the other side of this bet. How do you propose we definitively compute the outcome? And can we use a service like long bets?
I don’t think your logic is wrong and some categories will grow, but I think many of these jobs will go more of the way of the original “computers” which were really people. Obviously we do many orders of magnitude more arithmetic now but with nearly no human computers.
Dm me if you’re serious.
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I'd bet $1000 that from now to 2030, most "susceptible" jobs see *increased* share of labor. In the models these types of charts are based on, it is explicitly not "AI can substitute" but "AI is related". AI is a complement too! Who *doesn't* want to code right now, for instance?
Kaito | 海斗@_kaitodev
5 minutes ago, @karpathy just dropped karpathy/jobs! he scraped every job in the US economy (342 occupations from BLS), scored each one's AI exposure 0-10 using an LLM, and visualized it as a treemap. if your whole job happens on a screen you're cooked. average score across all jobs is 5.3/10. software devs: 8-9. roofers: 0-1. medical transcriptionists: 10/10 💀 karpathy.ai/jobs
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Idea Lab retweeté
Looking forward to this! On underdiscussed topics- I’d like to hear 1) his view on core biz growth opportunity from new international markets such as India, 2) what specific ai inference use cases does he expect will lead to the acceleration in internet traffic growth he predicts?
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I will be hosting a recorded interview with Dave Schaeffer from $CCOI later this month. Of course I have lots of my own questions, but ping me if you have some topics you wish got some more attention.
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Is there really a @tylercowen debate? All I see is people bending over backwards for Tyler Cowen- and I’m all for it.
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The pushback is that AI will not just confirm priors, most people actually want to solve real problems in life and for that need objective truth, LLMs are actually pretty good at being objective unless really prompt engineered to be biased. On reading comprehension- you’re now *reading* summaries
of 100 texts instead of just reading 10, and you’re learning much more by asking follow up questions - it’s more Socratic than reading blindly
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My new working theory is that AI is actually causing the vast majority of knowledge workers to lose ALL critical thinking and reading comprehension skills as they have fully come to rely on these chatbots to tell them summarized answers that only confirm their priors.
Will start collecting examples here.
Evergreen@evrgn11112231
Ok am I losing my mind or is this $META article getting shared all over Twitter just referencing other articles referencing old gossip with nothing on the record from anyone? Confirmation bias is a helluva drug all the way around (including with myself) - hence why I'm posting about this. But not a single person sharing this seems to have even read it?
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The 5th edition of the Special Situations Digest was just published today, featuring 205 ideas.
A few highlights include:
XPOF — Voss Capital (18.2% stake) is pushing for a full strategic review, arguing Club Pilates alone is worth more than the entire company's enterprise value.
ZD (Ziff Davis) — Sold its Connectivity division (Ookla/Speedtest) to Accenture for $1.2B in cash — a price that exceeded the company's entire pre-announcement market cap. Stock up 74%.
GungHo — CEO replaced, ¥5B buyback, 16M treasury shares cancelled, dividend raised — all concessions in response to Strategic Capital's activist campaign. Strategic Capital is still buying and pushing for more.
MKTW — MarketWise received two unsolicited acquisition proposals: one from Monument & Cathedral Holdings, another from The Agora Companies for the remaining 57% stake at ~$280M. Special committee formed.
BARK — CEO just withdrew from the buyout group bidding for his own company, handing the process to an independent Special Committee. Cleaner activist setup now, with outside acquisition proposals on the table. $136M mkt cap.
Sortable Excel included. Be sure to check it out. Please re-share if it's useful!
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Idea Lab retweeté
Idea Lab retweeté
The market doesn’t “know” anything.
It’s just an auction with people driven by fear, greed and career risk.
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This is a more controversial claim, but if AGIs do exist, deustch argues they would have to be ‘universal explainers’ just like humans are. They would need to think through conjecture and criticism (not predict next word), and they would need to have their own interests and goals. Their creative capacity won’t be superior to us, because our creative capacity is already universal, and speed or memory doesn’t improve creative capacity.
Idea Lab@_Idea_Lab
3. "...and if the definition of an AGI is in fact that they are just like humans..." A true Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) wouldn't just be a super-fast calculator. It would be a "universal explainer"—a person. Deutsch argues that the human ability to understand the world isn't a magic trick; it's a computational process of creating explanations. This creative capacity doesn't improve with speed and memory. An AGI would have this same capability. This means an AGI isn't just a tool that replaces us; it is a new creative entity that joins the economy as a participant, consumer, and creator.
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@_Idea_Lab @jamesallworth Currently I agree in the “long term” idk. Humans are physical beings and our brains exist so it’s clearly possible. I have no view as to AGI timelines etc. I was just trying to address one of rebuttals I hear when I poo poo these “ai job loss” idiocies.
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My genuine question for everyone dismissing these posts as “AI doomism”: what are these people going to do for income? And it’s not just truckers, it’s the white collar jobs, too.
I’m yet to hear a good answer for this
Brian Sozzi@BrianSozzi
JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon at an investor cocktail event last night on AI (part 2): "What if, I think there are 2 million commercial truckers in the United States, and there are lots of other examples you can give. There's a thought exercise, and you could push a button, eliminate all of them, and they make $120,000 on average. Save fuel, save lives, save time, a more efficient system, less disrupted highways, all that beautiful stuff. Would you do it if you put 2 million people on the street where even if there are jobs available, that next job is $25,000 a year, stocking shelves. I was saying, "That's kind of really bad, kind of civilly, should we as society agree to that?" I don't think so. I was talking about the business and government, and they should start thinking today, not when it happens, what would we do to deal with the [AI] issue? It's got to be business and government."
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An AI won’t be able to “do everything” because it can’t create new explanations like a human can - from popper and deustch - new explanations are created through conjecture and criticism, something current AIs don’t emulate. Ultimately, humans will always be required for the ‘inspiration’ as AIs take over the ‘perspiration’. We could all just be ceos of our own little projects.
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@jamesallworth But what if AI “does everything” you ask? Well now we live in a post scarcity world… I dunno pick up kite surfing on Jupiter?
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@jamesallworth David Deustch and Popper have a definitively good answer for this.
See more here -
Idea Lab@_Idea_Lab
I've been more and more influenced by David Deutsch's work, and his (and Popper's) philosophy is more relevant now than ever. On the problem of AI or even AGI taking over human jobs - I think it logically flows from his work that such a scenario will likely not occur. Here's the brief on why - and then I'll explain each claim a bit more in the thread: As long as humans have ever-increasing problems, and there exists a system in place to correct those problems, and if the definition of an AGI is in fact that they are just like humans - they have the same universal abilities a human does - then AIs and AGIs will only lead to more and more jobs created and more and more wealth created - for both AGIs and Humans. @DavidDeutschOxf @ToKTeacher @arjunkhemani @naval Would love your feedback on this take
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4. "...then AIs and AGIs will only lead to more and more jobs created and more and more wealth created..."
Current AI (like chatbots) automates "perspiration" (repetitive tasks), freeing humans for "inspiration" (creative problem-solving). Since the supply of problems is infinite, we can't run out of jobs; we just move on to better, more interesting problems. And if AGIs join us, they are new "people" with their own desires and needs. Just as a growing human population increases the complexity and wealth of an economy, a population of AGIs increases the collective brainpower available to solve problems, creating more wealth (which Deutsch defines as the set of physical transformations we are capable of causing) for everyone.
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3. "...and if the definition of an AGI is in fact that they are just like humans..."
A true Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) wouldn't just be a super-fast calculator. It would be a "universal explainer"—a person. Deutsch argues that the human ability to understand the world isn't a magic trick; it's a computational process of creating explanations. This creative capacity doesn't improve with speed and memory. An AGI would have this same capability. This means an AGI isn't just a tool that replaces us; it is a new creative entity that joins the economy as a participant, consumer, and creator.
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I've been more and more influenced by David Deutsch's work, and his (and Popper's) philosophy is more relevant now than ever. On the problem of AI or even AGI taking over human jobs - I think it logically flows from his work that such a scenario will likely not occur. Here's the brief on why - and then I'll explain each claim a bit more in the thread:
As long as humans have ever-increasing problems, and there exists a system in place to correct those problems, and if the definition of an AGI is in fact that they are just like humans - they have the same universal abilities a human does - then AIs and AGIs will only lead to more and more jobs created and more and more wealth created - for both AGIs and Humans.
@DavidDeutschOxf @ToKTeacher @arjunkhemani @naval Would love your feedback on this take
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