Idea Lab

If today is the last, thank you for everything, Leo. 🥺🐐

@GoodHouseCap @SFarringtonBKC Hell no you have to go to l’industrie

@SFarringtonBKC For a slice, hands down Joe’s in the west village

Where should a tourist get a slice of pizza in lower Manhattan?

This has been obvious to anyone who studies history and previous technological revolutions. We abstract lower level problems away and move up the stack to new problems. That creates new complexity and a wider variety of jobs. Complexity breeds more complexity. The work is infinite because the problems are infinite. No machine, human, or man and machine hybrid can solve them all. AI is not magic and we need to stop thinking about it that way. The stack of problems is infinite and never ending.

@pmarca Industry didn't die at the invention of the steam engine, it started

@pmarca Don’t you think when people say faily early it’s just a fancy way of saying learn? You’re both on the same side

Co-sign.

The faster technology moves, the more I think about Bezos' question What won't change in the next 10 years? Things I've been writing down over time: - Humans will always need shelter, food, energy, and healthcare. - The desire for ownership and the accumulation of wealth. - The physical world will move more slowly than the digital one. - Every increase in technological capability, especially AI, will require more energy. - People and businesses will continue to need access to capital. - Capital will continue to seek returns that exceed inflation. - Underwriting methods evolve, but demand for credit (loans) is persistent. - Trust remains scarce and becomes increasingly valuable as content, code, and fraud become cheaper. - Verified identities and reputation becomes more important as information becomes abundant and synthetic. - Long-term wealth creation and dynastic (multi-generational) thinking predate modern technology, and will persist. - Coordination and transaction costs never fully disappear; market friction will continue to justify the existence of firms and intermediaries. - People will continue to compete for status. - Consumers will pay a premium for products and services that confer status. - Time remains fixed at 24 hours per day. - But attention is a finite resource and an enduring constraint. - Products that credibly save time (or enable delegation) have a perpetual market. - Inaccessible, proprietary data will be a persistent moat. The more inaccessible and difficult to aggregate, the deeper the moat. - People want accountability, recourse, and clearly identifiable responsibility when things go wrong. - Regulation consistently lags technological innovation. - Compliance requirements, licensing, and regulatory moats persist even when machines can perform the underlying task. - Local knowledge remains valuable and difficult to replicate. - Heterogeneous markets (like real estate) continue to reward people with deep contextual understanding. - Incumbent organizations tend to underinvest in disrupting their own businesses, which always creates opportunities for challengers. Bezos' insight on what wouldn't change in 10 years was "Customers will always want lower prices and faster delivery." It's boring/ true, but I think that's the point. Everything we build today can and will be rebuilt more cheaply, faster by someone else. Build on the invariants, not the trends. What have I missed?

@bryan_johnson Bryan , you make me and many others want to live forever. You’ve inspired millions through your work. Fuck the haters. Please keep doing what you do

A lot of people feel this and it’s ok

Added a boatload of $CCOI at this price. Seems absurdly cheap.

Do you reckon this result would replicate for the 2002-2025 period? My guess is not and thats not bec 'value' isnt relevant, its bec the internet (among other innovations) led to the greatest companies having intangible assets and network effects, and a lot of those advantages with winner take all / most economics led to typical metrics like P/E, P/B etc being less relevant as proxies of value. GOOG, AMZN, META, etc are classic examples of companies that were often 'undervalued' during this time but wouldnt screen very well - and a lot of the alpha you generate between 2002-2026 would have come from these companies (Thats true for S&P 500 not sure if this would hold for Russell 2000 )

Researchers studied 1,000’s of small stocks from 1969 to 2001. They sorted them into ‘cheap’ and ‘expensive’ based on: -Price compared to sales -Price compared to earnings -Price compared to cash flow -Price compared to book value Overvalued stocks lost money over the 32 year period. Undervalued stocks averaged about 18% return a year over 32 years Most people thought the undervalued stocks would be more risky, but they weren't. They gave a higher return, while taking less risk.

I think because GPU cost it so high you want to minimize the chances of discontinuity - you want route diversity, and that’s why ubiquitous routes matter and it makes sense to add cogent. I agree though that we need to see it in the numbers - the other explanations - that some installs haven’t been billed, the supply chain disruptions causing long lead times for key equipment, consumer behavior in waves, maybe a poorly executed sales strategy - seem more plausible to me.

Fair point. I still think the whole resilience argument kind of plays against them too, if GPU cost is super high vs wave cost why switch from what is working ($LUMN/Zayo) except for backup which means their market share targets may be high. I totally get the points and like $CCOI too in a lot of ways but I wonder if there is more to the constant negative surprise cycle with waves growth…

cogentco.com/en/about-cogen… $CCOI debt refi/reduction story with a positive incremental data point on the closing here.. still unsure about waves growth trajectory error bars given price may not be the main factor in potentially taking share vs $LUMN and Zayo (which I just wrote up in last 24 hours).

@naval @naval , you’ve said great products are hard to vary. By extension, would you agree that a great business is a product (or service) that’s hard to vary, with reach that’s hard to replicate?

Great products are not so much invented as discovered.

@CliffordSosin That’s because in a lot of traditional families fathers spend less time with kids so want to spend more, and mothers spend too much time with kids so want to spend less

On Mother’s Day, dads take the kids so mom can have some mom time. On Father’s Day, dads get the kids for some dad-kid time. 🤔

Your brain will invent fake problems for you if you don't go out and find real ones

I agree illegal immigrants should be sent back. As should immigrants that don’t assimilate or share the host country values. But if you think ‘total foreign deportation’ is a good idea you’re an idiot. You realise your rhetoric would’ve sent elon musk back home, back in the day, right? And all the immigrant ceos/founders that have created an insane amount of value! Indians top that list

@Keir_Starmer "every parent wants the best for their kids" true! parents want their kids safe to walk around without the risk of being raped by a pakistani or stabbed by an indian! if you think banning social media is better than total foreign deportation, you are retarded and a cunt

We are banning social media access for under 16s. These days kids must find their feet in a world where technology intrudes into every area of their life. I just can’t let that go on anymore. So we’re giving children their childhoods back.

Nobody teaches you that discipline feels like punishment until the results start feeling like freedom

@QuipusCapital Do any have sufficient liquidity for a ~$100 m fund?

Not one, but six microcaps in deep value territory from Brazil. And not the classical pushy, FOMO-led way of painting these microcaps, making them seem air-tight. No, concentrating on the risks, the financial statement notes, the downside. Fri2rid, out tomorrow

I know how Elon Musk became a trillionaire, but I don't know how Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Nancy Pelosi became millionaires.

Pessimists sound smart.  Optimists build the world.