@OldRowSwig I dont watch Nascar, but what happens in a situation like this? Was it really an accident lol?
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Ben
628 posts
Ben
@eventuallyright
Status: Monitoring my portfolio.
Dallas Inscrit le Ekim 2025
342 Abonnements92 Abonnés
Futures open red, oil back on the rise as uncertainty remains in the U.S. - Iran conflict
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Was at the WH Correspondents dinner last night, a rare DC trip for me without a subpoena. On the positive side—was exciting, no one was killed, and ended early. I noted a new litmus for status among the gov’t elite—whether you were whisked away by secret service, or left to fend.
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Not priced in
Julien Chaumond@julien_c
This is where we are right now. And i’m not gonna lie it feels pretty magical 🧚♀️ Qwen3.6 27B running inside of Pi coding agent via Llama.cpp on the MacBook Pro For non-trivial tasks on the @huggingface codebases, this feels very, very close to hitting the latest Opus in Claude Code, or whatever shiny monopolistic closed source API of the day is. In full airplane mode. Most people haven’t realized this yet. If you have, it means you have a huge headstart to what I call the second revolution of AI. Powerful local models for efficiency, security, privacy, sovereignty 🔥
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Overheard in Silicon Valley: "Have you tried listening literally, instead of allegorically."
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Who is ready for these to send?
I am!
Anthony Pompliano 🌪@APompliano
Wow. The White House just announced that grid infrastructure is essential to national defense. This includes transformers, transmission lines and conductors, substations, and high-voltage circuit breakers. Companies working to electrify America will have a big tailwind.
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openai is less evil than anthropic and it’s not even close
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@BitcoinMagazine @TheBitcoinConf Do Bitcoin outflows lead to Alt coin inflows? Transparently, I don't know shit about how the technology or finance system of crypto works.
The reason I am asking is because it seems like the Alts look ready for a run.
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The world's largest Bitcoin conference starts tomorrow 👀
You are not prepared 🚀
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unfortunately san francisco is the exact opposite
PK🍓🍉@PKontwt
Once you actually go outside and talk to normal people, you’ll realize that none of this Twitter shit is real at all
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@gelQuentin70m67 I think we are at deployment phase, both $OUST and StereoLabs reported record deliveries last quarter.
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@eventuallyright If physical AI moves from narrative to deployment, names like this could re-rate quickly—but timing is everything.
Serenity did mention it on his Telegram ALEABITOREDDITX—he pointed out that infrastructure layers tend to get repriced after utilization inflects, not before.
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Disillusioned by the growth of AI.
Starting to believe the only chance to escape the permanent underclass is in the next 5 years?
By owning compute and control of the infrastructure that makes AI and Robotics work.
Hard to see new generations having much opportunities, unless they’re highly specialized.
Especially with physical AI and automation coming to replace everyone in the human workforce.
All the value derived from AI will go to shareholders, without requiring the cost of labor.
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Some quick numbers on $OUST, profitability is only a matter of time. Late 2027 seems right for for adjusted EBITDA breakeven.
The Operating Leverage Math:
Ouster's total operating expenses through the first nine months of 2025 were ~$121M, with R&D at $50M, G&A at $50M, and S&M at $21M. That puts full-year 2025 opex around $160M. Management has committed to GAAP opex growth of only 5–8% from 2025 levels going forward — which is the single most important number in this whole story and the one people are glossing over.
Here's the math that should get your attention:
2025 revenue: $169M, gross profit ~$83M (49% GAAP gross margin)
2025 opex: ~$160M → operating loss ~$77M
If opex grows only 5–8% annually and revenue grows 30–50%, the gap closes fast
Model it out simply at the midpoints:
2026: ~$220M revenue, ~$108M gross profit (49% margin), ~$168M opex → ~$60M operating loss
2027: ~$290M revenue, ~$130M gross profit, ~$178M opex → ~$48M operating loss on GAAP, but Adj. EBITDA breakeven is plausible because stock-based comp (~$25–30M) and D&A (~$15M) are addbacks
2028: ~$380M revenue, ~$160M gross profit, ~$187M opex → GAAP operating breakeven territory
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@JosephJacks_ I have always thought that the government hides and delays the release of accelerated technology to protect the human race. And when the time is right, and they think we can handle it, they release it..
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70 years ago in 1955, John von Neumann wrote an epic and prescient essay: “Can We Survive Technology?” … He saw that technology’s spatial reach was catching up with Earth’s actual size, while political organization remained stuck at smaller scales, and that human reaction time is a fixed constant while the technological tempo only accelerates — so each new generation of tools enlarges the unit affected by any single decision until the unit becomes the planet itself! 🌎
From this logic, he drew the conclusion that no procedural firewall, no institutional design, no advance solution can absorb the resulting risk; only ongoing judgment exercised in real time by agents with skin in the game can.
sseh.uchicago.edu/doc/von_Neuman…
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$OUST CEO thinks the StereoLabs acquisition will double their TAM..
youtube.com/watch?v=9hEzth…
YouTube
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Following up here, lets look at the potential TAM and what $OUST could be trading at in 2027:
Yes, Claude (Ant) helped me make this.
Ben@eventuallyright
Reflecting on $OUST … Most people think about lidar through drones or autonomous vehicles. The real volume is likely to show up somewhere less flashy: Warehouses and factory automation are already deploying autonomous systems at scale because the environments are controlled and the ROI is immediate. Sidewalk delivery robots are next in line—still early, but moving from pilots to repeatable deployments in dense urban areas. Then there’s smart infrastructure: intersections, ports, and cities using perception systems for traffic flow and safety. Trucking and highway autonomy is a longer-cycle build, but potentially larger per unit economics once it scales
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