@Abombination81 I am just glad that I survived the thunderdome with minimal losses instead of chasing it.
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fLabber
1.2K posts
fLabber
@fLabberizmad
Rise and rise again, until lambs become lions. prev - @JupiterExchange @PlayNFLRivals Contributor @SuperteamIN DMs open
India Inscrit le Kasım 2021
935 Abonnements283 Abonnés
@fLabberizmad Yup, 5m is the thunderdome. Keep telling people...
Wait till the 1m come out, houses will get lost
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Ok Need a question answered. Seeing if I can build something for you Guys/Gals/Whatever's.
This is very important you answer, for your own benefit.
Does everyone here use AI to code? if so which one. If you code, what are you using, python? rust? etc
Do you know how to use a json? cli? mcp? md files? I need to figure out how to build things... like back testers, traders, etc for you guys. But need to understand how others are doing things. My way is just one of many.
Just put what you know below, IM going to scrape it all and try and make it all work. So if you don't reply, and shit doesn't work... well go punch yourself in your no no spot because it's your own fault.
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@polybacktest Funnily enough, anytime some1 shows me a strategy I always ask em the same thing, "Whats your fill price"
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We found a strategy on Polymarket that wins 98.9% of the time.
6,140 BTC 5-minute markets. Real orderbook data.
The strategy: wait until minute 4 of a 5-minute market. Check which way BTC is moving. Bet that direction. That's it.
The results:
Minute 0:30 -- 55.8% win rate
Minute 1:00 -- 59.4%
Minute 2:00 -- 65.0%
Minute 3:00 -- 71.2%
Minute 4:00 -- 77.1%
Minute 4:30 -- 80.8%
Filter for BTC moves greater than 0.2% at minute 4? Win rate: 98.9%. Out of 804 trades, 795 won.
Free money. Right?
Now look at the token price when you're trying to buy in.
At 0:30 the winning token costs $0.60
At 1:00 it costs $0.65
At 2:00 it costs $0.72
At 3:00 it costs $0.80
At 4:00 it costs $0.87
At 4:30 it costs $0.90
You win more often. But you pay more every time. Your profit per win shrinks from $0.40 to $0.10.
The expected value per trade at every single checkpoint?
Negative. Every one of them.
$-0.027 at 30 seconds.
$-0.034 at 2 minutes.
$-0.033 at 4 minutes.
$-0.028 at 4:30.
A 98.9% win rate strategy that loses money. The market already priced in the information before you could act on it.
That's not a broken strategy. That's an efficient market. The more certain the outcome becomes, the less profit is left on the table.
Next time someone shows you a win rate, ask them one question: what was the entry price?
Historical data, one BTC regime. Markets evolve.
The data's all there - polybacktest gives you historical full orderbook snapshots to backtest your strategies on.
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@TheTripperApe @Abombination81 yeah, but that is very minimal if you are using an actual trading strategy, and not trying to arb, or goin for that <1$ strategy.
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@fLabberizmad @Abombination81 + taker time penalty 250ms at least?
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I posted the post below earlier. It is very wrong. I somehow did not know that an immediate fill on GTC was the same as a take. Common sense now.
I need to thank @fLabberizmad because this is the first thing I've learned on X about polymarket I didnt already know.
So goes without saying, ignore this post
(previous post just for reference... again ignore it)
1 easy trick to make every PolyMarket bot better All bots have to buy and sell. There is some confusion sometimes to the order types. GTC (a limit order that is good to close) FAK (a market order, fill and kill) FOK(a market order, fill OR kill) Both market orders, for crypto and some sports, cost fees. Its a quadriatic curve, so very small at 1-99 and heaviest at 50c. GTC orders are market makers, meaning you provide liquidity because the orders sit on the books. BUT you can make your GTC behave just like a FOK/FAK When you place a FAK/FOK or a GTC you place it with a max price you're willing to pay with a share calculator, this gives it maximum slippage. But both buy from the bottom up, meaning cheapest shares first. So here is the trick. If you need an instant buy, ie hedge or snipe or something. 99% of the time you can still do a GTC order. You just place it at 99c. So a GTC order at 99c, will always eat the cheapest shares first. So if the market is at 62 c, and you place a GTC order at 99c it will fill at 62, 61, 63 etc... whatever is available on the books. The exact same as a FOK/FAK order. So basically by switching the limits price and order type, you save fees on every bot you have.
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@TheTripperApe @Abombination81 nopes, whoever submits their order first will get filled first, as poly uses first in first out logic, so at the end of day it will depend upon order submission speed.
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@fLabberizmad @Abombination81 why 99c? Someone having a GTC 5c above ask would get filled before right?
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@TheTripperApe @Abombination81 For instant buy/sell you can place any order at 99c, and it will act as a market order, so u are not last in line, instead u get filled at the best possible price at that moment.
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@fLabberizmad @Abombination81 so what would be the fastest order type for instant buy/sell? FAK? If you place GTC at 99c you basically getting last in line with all the resting orders in between?
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@sheppardpk19 @Abombination81 In your test, you can just substract 1.75% from your edge if you are filling as a taker on a 50c fill.
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@Abombination81 @fLabberizmad interesting! so does this mean that some edges that you thought would be killed by fees earlier actually work with fees? I've been testing empty wallet style with taker orders recently to some marginal success
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@Abombination81 This is absolutely wrong lol, if you place a Limit order at 99c and getting filled at 60c, you are still paying a taker fees lol.
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@Abombination81 bruhh, r u moon dev's alt account xD
Been a while since I came across a legit guy on poly and not a larper lol. Keep up the good work.
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Lets Fix Your Polymarket Bot
50+ bots fixed now. Drop your issues below, lets get it making some money!
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@polybacktest Just tried to buy Pro, why dont you guys have crypto payments. 😭😭
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We backtested this arbitrage bot on hundreds of markets. Here are the results.
Strategy: At the start of a market, place limit orders at 0.46 on both up and down. If both sides fill, you lock in a risk-free $0.08 profit per share.
Results:
- 75% win rate
- EV: -$0.048
Since you only make $0.08 per market, you need at least a 92% win rate to break even (before fees).
We also tested having a high volatility filter and a low volatility filter. Neither made the strategy profitable.
-High vol filter: -$0.072EV
-Low vol filter: -$0.048EV
If you want to run your own backtests, Polybacktest offers sub-second historical market data going back a month.
Recogard@recogard
I just found a fully functional and super underrated Polymarket trading bot on GitHub and its completely free.. Thank God it comes with a detailed step by step setup guide and even a yt video showing this bot in action. Each of u can get it running in about 15 min. How this bot actually works: As we know, every new 5 min market on Polymarket starts with a 50/50 odds split, meaning both sides are $0.50. Using CLOB API, our bot automatically detects when a new 5 min market opens and immediately places two limit orders - one for price going UP and one for price going DOWN at $0.46 (default value, can be changed). The goal is to get both sides filled below the initial $0.50 price. Because of frequent liquidity imbalances and market volatility, this is possible and happens very often. If both orders are filled, the total cost is $0.92, while the payout at the resolution is $1. That gives a $0.08 pure profit per single trade (cause of limit orders, this bot doesnt pay any fees at all). But now imagine the results, when the bot runs for a week or even a month, executing thousands of such trades per day. Also, it constantly monitors the order book and can move its own orders closer to the current price to catch the best one. Its totally automated and makes decisions without even the human involvement. I will use this bot for a week and share my live results in my new TG channel (link in BIO) so dont miss it fam
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fLabber retweeté
Updates Announcement & Beta Keys Giveaway Soon
Lightspeed 🥷
#PolyMarket #Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #Predictoor
Predictoor Trade@PredictoorTrade
🔷Predictoor Trade Private Beta v0.1🔷 🌐 Portfolio Discovery 💼 Full Real Time Portfolio Tracker 🗽 Live News Feed From Top Famous News Outlets 💱 Global Trading Activity With Unique Trader Stats 📳 Full Social Media Tracker For Instant News 🖥️ All In One Single Page Accessibility ⚔️ Craft Your Own Edge With Predictoor Trade
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fLabber retweeté
Open Wallet: Founder’s Pass collection will be minting on @MagicEden Launchpad 🚀
Mint details revealed soon.
Get ready for gasless transactions on @solana, followed by a debit card fully integrated into your app experience.
Traditional finance is outdated 😉
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fLabber retweeté
🔷Predictoor Trade Private Beta v0.1🔷
🌐 Portfolio Discovery
💼 Full Real Time Portfolio Tracker
🗽 Live News Feed From Top Famous News Outlets
💱 Global Trading Activity With Unique Trader Stats
📳 Full Social Media Tracker For Instant News
🖥️ All In One Single Page Accessibility
⚔️ Craft Your Own Edge With Predictoor Trade
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