fLabber

@Abombination81 I am just glad that I survived the thunderdome with minimal losses instead of chasing it.

@fLabberizmad Yup, 5m is the thunderdome. Keep telling people... Wait till the 1m come out, houses will get lost

Ok Need a question answered. Seeing if I can build something for you Guys/Gals/Whatever's. This is very important you answer, for your own benefit. Does everyone here use AI to code? if so which one. If you code, what are you using, python? rust? etc Do you know how to use a json? cli? mcp? md files? I need to figure out how to build things... like back testers, traders, etc for you guys. But need to understand how others are doing things. My way is just one of many. Just put what you know below, IM going to scrape it all and try and make it all work. So if you don't reply, and shit doesn't work... well go punch yourself in your no no spot because it's your own fault.

@polybacktest Funnily enough, anytime some1 shows me a strategy I always ask em the same thing, "Whats your fill price"

We found a strategy on Polymarket that wins 98.9% of the time. 6,140 BTC 5-minute markets. Real orderbook data. The strategy: wait until minute 4 of a 5-minute market. Check which way BTC is moving. Bet that direction. That's it. The results: Minute 0:30 -- 55.8% win rate Minute 1:00 -- 59.4% Minute 2:00 -- 65.0% Minute 3:00 -- 71.2% Minute 4:00 -- 77.1% Minute 4:30 -- 80.8% Filter for BTC moves greater than 0.2% at minute 4? Win rate: 98.9%. Out of 804 trades, 795 won. Free money. Right? Now look at the token price when you're trying to buy in. At 0:30 the winning token costs $0.60 At 1:00 it costs $0.65 At 2:00 it costs $0.72 At 3:00 it costs $0.80 At 4:00 it costs $0.87 At 4:30 it costs $0.90 You win more often. But you pay more every time. Your profit per win shrinks from $0.40 to $0.10. The expected value per trade at every single checkpoint? Negative. Every one of them. $-0.027 at 30 seconds. $-0.034 at 2 minutes. $-0.033 at 4 minutes. $-0.028 at 4:30. A 98.9% win rate strategy that loses money. The market already priced in the information before you could act on it. That's not a broken strategy. That's an efficient market. The more certain the outcome becomes, the less profit is left on the table. Next time someone shows you a win rate, ask them one question: what was the entry price? Historical data, one BTC regime. Markets evolve. The data's all there - polybacktest gives you historical full orderbook snapshots to backtest your strategies on.

@TheTripperApe @Abombination81 yeah, but that is very minimal if you are using an actual trading strategy, and not trying to arb, or goin for that <1$ strategy.

@fLabberizmad @Abombination81 + taker time penalty 250ms at least?

@TheTripperApe @Abombination81 nopes, whoever submits their order first will get filled first, as poly uses first in first out logic, so at the end of day it will depend upon order submission speed.

@fLabberizmad @Abombination81 why 99c? Someone having a GTC 5c above ask would get filled before right?

@TheTripperApe @Abombination81 For instant buy/sell you can place any order at 99c, and it will act as a market order, so u are not last in line, instead u get filled at the best possible price at that moment.

@fLabberizmad @Abombination81 so what would be the fastest order type for instant buy/sell? FAK? If you place GTC at 99c you basically getting last in line with all the resting orders in between?

@sheppardpk19 @Abombination81 In your test, you can just substract 1.75% from your edge if you are filling as a taker on a 50c fill.

@Abombination81 @fLabberizmad interesting! so does this mean that some edges that you thought would be killed by fees earlier actually work with fees? I've been testing empty wallet style with taker orders recently to some marginal success

@Abombination81 This is absolutely wrong lol, if you place a Limit order at 99c and getting filled at 60c, you are still paying a taker fees lol.

@Abombination81 bruhh, r u moon dev's alt account xD Been a while since I came across a legit guy on poly and not a larper lol. Keep up the good work.

Lets Fix Your Polymarket Bot 50+ bots fixed now. Drop your issues below, lets get it making some money!

@polybacktest Just tried to buy Pro, why dont you guys have crypto payments. 😭😭

@fLabberizmad Just one month for the crypto up/down markets

We backtested this arbitrage bot on hundreds of markets. Here are the results. Strategy: At the start of a market, place limit orders at 0.46 on both up and down. If both sides fill, you lock in a risk-free $0.08 profit per share. Results: - 75% win rate - EV: -$0.048 Since you only make $0.08 per market, you need at least a 92% win rate to break even (before fees). We also tested having a high volatility filter and a low volatility filter. Neither made the strategy profitable. -High vol filter: -$0.072EV -Low vol filter: -$0.048EV If you want to run your own backtests, Polybacktest offers sub-second historical market data going back a month.

BELIEVE

@fxnction Cant believe twitter still glitching. F

Minted my @Openwallet_com Founder's pass, I hear big things coming!!!

Dev arc is real!!!

@funcry it's funny how I was talking about almost the same thing with my friend a couple of days ago. OG memecoins devs were built different!!!

OG meme coin devs treated it like a startup. Own money in LP. No sleep. Spaces. They were genuinely stressing about failing and kept fighting no matter what. Today’s devs create X community, post “I am paying the DEX guys” and disappear. Bro fuck off please.

Open Wallet: Founder’s Pass collection will be minting on @MagicEden Launchpad 🚀 Mint details revealed soon. Get ready for gasless transactions on @solana, followed by a debit card fully integrated into your app experience. Traditional finance is outdated 😉

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