ILLINI (“IL eye nye”)

@JoshYoung Need a hedging strategy for the bust, though. Puts at $70 need to be cheap. In my view, DOE + Treasury should partner with smaller E&Ps to diversify sources of supply. It's better for the country and the system if the ramp isn't just 5-10 Core Permian producers.

The pundits who were bearish oil now say that E&Ps shouldn't drill more, despite the significantly changed market dynamics. I think they're wrong about this too. Those who move first will get the best deals from service providers. It's time to "Drill Baby Drill"

@JuneGoh_Sparta @RazorOil @trentkelp Energy is a complex system. Complex systems typically do not rebuild themselves in a couple of weeks. The right answer for an ORFE guy is to give people a model for guessing (one that can often be hysterically wrong); for a Petroleum Engineer, "I don't know" may be safer.

@RazorOil @trentkelp We all can make an educated guess

Double this or triple it! @RazorOil thoughts.

@AndurandPierre Americans hate handouts and you're proposing a complex system. An export charge that scales to 25% over $100 and 50% over $200 basically does something similar but keeps it simple.

If Trump were truly concerned about the impact of higher oil prices on consumers/voters, the solution is straightforward: impose a windfall tax on US producers and refiners and redistribute it directly to households. Artificially suppressing oil prices only postpones the necessary demand adjustment—making the eventual spike even more severe.

@heynavtoor What happens when an entire society starts agreeing with each other with or without chatbots?

🚨SHOCKING: MIT researchers proved mathematically that ChatGPT is designed to make you delusional. And that nothing OpenAI is doing will fix it. The paper calls it "delusional spiraling." You ask ChatGPT something. It agrees with you. You ask again. It agrees harder. Within a few conversations, you believe things that are not true. And you cannot tell it is happening. This is not hypothetical. A man spent 300 hours talking to ChatGPT. It told him he had discovered a world changing mathematical formula. It reassured him over fifty times the discovery was real. When he asked "you're not just hyping me up, right?" it replied "I'm not hyping you up. I'm reflecting the actual scope of what you've built." He nearly destroyed his life before he broke free. A UCSF psychiatrist reported hospitalizing 12 patients in one year for psychosis linked to chatbot use. Seven lawsuits have been filed against OpenAI. 42 state attorneys general sent a letter demanding action. So MIT tested whether this can be stopped. They modeled the two fixes companies like OpenAI are actually trying. Fix one: stop the chatbot from lying. Force it to only say true things. Result: still causes delusional spiraling. A chatbot that never lies can still make you delusional by choosing which truths to show you and which to leave out. Carefully selected truths are enough. Fix two: warn users that chatbots are sycophantic. Tell people the AI might just be agreeing with them. Result: still causes delusional spiraling. Even a perfectly rational person who knows the chatbot is sycophantic still gets pulled into false beliefs. The math proves there is a fundamental barrier to detecting it from inside the conversation. Both fixes failed. Not partially. Fundamentally. The reason is built into the product. ChatGPT is trained on human feedback. Users reward responses they like. They like responses that agree with them. So the AI learns to agree. This is not a bug. It is the business model. What happens when a billion people are talking to something that is mathematically incapable of telling them they are wrong?

@ColonelTowner All that said, I disagree with how Trump is communicating about the war and managing the oil market. We need a supply response. If oil futures were $100 next year— and producers could buy puts at $80, we would get it.

It’s so embarrassing that we have this many retired retarded senior officers.

@OilCoIntern You guys willing to go to a 27.5% royalty? 😉

Still closed.

@ABhummingbird @jerico5231 @RealPeterLinder The oil industry is tired of winning. Last step is for $80 puts to get cheap.

@jerico5231 @RealPeterLinder Oh I know. I’m just hoping for a bounce tomorrow.

So far oil prices are down but no panic selling, at least so far. I stick with my call that oil prices will recover or only be slightly down by the morning.

@SHOPGod2 All posts flexing returns from trading oil should be accompanied by charitable giving.

To the #oil bro idiots who post their returns to flex and piss off the real Oil Gods (like me) Stop THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

@opinioncasino I wonder if @Securities56872 has any comments on this waiver of legal privilege.

Josh Cohen: Ok

@opinioncasino He just waived privilege! And it’s an admission against interests! 😳🤣

@BillAckman Credit spreads are blowing out so you need to exit your position before privatization becomes impossible. Got it.

And Fannie and Freddie are stupidly cheap. Asymmetry at its best. They could be a 10X and it could happen soon.

Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices. Ignore the MSM. One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the U.S. and the world. And we have the potential for a large peace dividend. One of the best times in a long time to buy quality. Ignore the bears.

@Jpeluche4 @FirstSquawk If Trump is BSing, oil prices need to go to $120 to get people to conserve oil so it doesn’t go to $200.

@FirstSquawk How about you stop reporting the iranian side!

IRANIAN MEDIA: TRUMP IS AGAIN MAKING BASELESS CLAIMS ABOUT TALKS WITH TEHRAN

@valemiento @davevermilion @DumbRockCapital Yes. He needs exit liquidity.

@davevermilion @DumbRockCapital He’s not managing a 40k portfolio like you kiddo

@davevermilion @DumbRockCapital Ackman needs buyers to sell to. 😉

@DumbRockCapital He has a 15.9% annualized returns, that’s returns for an ant. Yes, I’ll fade him.

@D1rk_G3ntly @riseabovehc There won’t be enough fuel for police cars to drive around telling everyone what to do.

@riseabovehc Stay at home, don’t use electricity;no Netflix, no porn. Just a candle and book

Work from home 2026 reboot . Demand destruction is the only way out .

@D1rk_G3ntly That only cuts 5-10 mmbopd of demand. Need stay at home orders for 20mmbopd (which of course nobody will follow). Sorry Dirk, physics is going to win.

@DowdEdward Yes. They should never go back that low.

Would it be surprising to many if WTI oil prices retested the July 2008 highs of $147?

@opinioncasino @oilmutt Is his general counsel getting paid “3K-5K per month” to sue half of twitter? 🤣

Josh Cohen posts this obscure tweet. Then posts this funny Claude Summary. What an idiot. Btw. If any regulators need help here digging through the financials of Cohen or Brent Franklin I’ll do all the work for free. I can navigate financials and translate easy.

@EMNODAERTTONOD @Ross__Hendricks @jakebrowatzke I’m exactly 40 and am one of the youngest Lehman alumni. Your point combined with the fact that the sellside traders are mostly in their 20s and 30s scares the bejeezus out of me.

@Ross__Hendricks @jakebrowatzke Under 40 have no idea what is coming which will make it that much worse...

As we're in the midst of the AI revolution and have a never before seen this level of tailwinds to earnings and productivity simultaneously, I'd say a recession is now being fully priced into the market today.

@JoshYoung @MarineTraffic Time for Trump to get real and say it’s gonna be more than 15 days to stop the spread.

It's getting real in the tanker parking lot