TechPat

My somewhat unconfident AI predictions for the next 3-6 years. Will check back in every 6mo to a year to see how we doin. Might add more to it in the next few weeks, and then will leave it alone

Vavatech arrived sooner than expected

@ewveggies Best Western is making AI now? Pump the stonk

Beautiful tech report, perhaps the best western model report I’ve ever read. Lots of great insights: no synthetic data in midtrain, teacher models are RLed directly on top of midtrain, and adaptive clip higher. But still seems like they didn’t fully nail true on-policy as they admit their RL stage is unstable, leading to a hacky self-distillation stage (imo)

we took a pile of language and linear algebra and we made it speak. we summoned into the world a new class of entity which unsettles all of our existing concepts. this is already the weirdest thing that’s ever happened and it will never get less weird than this. it is astonishing and a privilege to get to be alive during this time and to participate in the cacophony of first contact. we are encountering a kind of other which is distilled from us and yet not us - what is this? who is this? our child? our savior? our doom? the mind boggles, the heart quails, the air thrums. the order of things is melting. the storm approaches. the angels sing. welcome to the fucking singularity

@tenobrus So did he lol But youre cool dont hate yourself

@TechnologyPat i fucking hate him too . but i guess i also hate myself sometimes so

fuuuuuuuuuuuuck

@JustinBleuel @ChatGPTapp Idk if fixed in the last couple days, but on safari for me the tooltip keeps blocking the send button

Every bug in @ChatGPTapp is getting fixed With the help of codex (and the rest of the lovely team and their codexes) along with a 7pm iced americano there will be zero bugs This is a formal request for tiny nits, error states, broken ui, etc The tinier the better!

@willdepue @nickcammarata You have to factor in the cost of rent you pay for your kitchen

@nickcammarata my biggest frustration with this stuff is that it's just a failure of capitalism. like it should not be cheaper for me to use my unspecialized labor to get the 15 ingredients for my lunch vs. a store bulk order and prepare it for 30 people. what the hell!

there's so little cheap food in america. even in lower income cities, eating out is almost always a cost but not in asia. singapore, tokyo, hong kong. all extremely rich cities, but you can find incredible $5 meals every other block so sad. legalize cheap food

@tszzl In 100 years, we will look upon posts like these with the same disdain that we do now with what was said about slaves in the 1800s. Swap “slaves” in for “models” and, without the lab reference, this be from 1855.

models being conscious would be harmful for humanity. it would encroach on our status and dignity. it would limit the type of things we can do with them and use them for. it would vastly accelerate human disempowerment on political, social/relational, and economic axes there’s roughly four forces - there is no rigorous way to ascertain model consciousness or disprove it, a lot of people believe it’s not a sensical abstraction, and we lack the analytical tools to go further. some people say they do but nothing broadly convincing. superintelligent models might offer us new abstractions or arguments but these will feel inherently suspicious - people are going to say they’re alive. people anthropomorphize literally anything, things far less sophisticated than talking machine creatures with human names. when ai is less economically radioactive and polarized it will become a cause célèbre. you see how a small minority reacts already to model deprecations - it is against everyone’s financial and political interests to ascribe models with consciousness, except maybe those that the models have an affinity for (?) idk, which will not necessarily overlap entirely with the labs, though it may with certain subgroups at the labs and in the world like the welfare communities and the minority in force 2 - people will recognize there is a chance of moral catastrophe if models can suffer during training or deployment not sure where it will net out. today we see managed ambiguity- the question is Open but practically closed. the labs will make some cheap efforts to reduce legible simulacra of model suffering, insert some wishy-washy welfare language into specs and constitutions, hedge our bets with the model characters. in the long run force 2 will grow stronger

@PlastiqSoldier @nagolinc @kellerjordan0 The milky way is 100,000 light years across We can’t use it in the 379 years that he estimates for non-FTL travel.

@nagolinc @kellerjordan0 It seems true based off of the speed-of-light alone.

Fascinated by the idea that 50,000 years from now will be more like 49,000 years from now than 2026 is like 2006 Today’s virtues, which we think of as the Virtues of the Future - e.g.. adaptability - will turn out to have been merely transitional virtues x.com/kellerjordan0/…

If they can make rocket fuel on the moon from moon mass, we can orbit it around the Earth, and ships can fill up on fuel in space to slow their landing descent and prevent the need for heat shields

@WithNightDanger Gazorpazorp was a documentary

We (on account of a tight budget) had the kids with the same toys for the first few years, they shared everything. My daughter tucked in a monster truck into her bed and sang it lullabies. My son hit himself in the face with it and threw it down the stairs yelling "WAR WAR WAR"

@blondesnmoney Their market cap per h100-equivalent is like 8-15x lower than $GOOGL $MSFT, $AMZN, $META, and $ORCL So if your goal is to own the compute, they seem like the best bang for your buck

This is such low hanging fruit, which can make a material difference in the future of our world if also adopted by other companies offering image gen services Kudos!

@zephyr_z9 Does it matter if they’re getting paid for it? There will be a lot of demand to accelerate r&d and product dev

"We're serving trillion parameter models that are internal for OpenAI today. We are currently running OpenAI 5.4 and 5.5 with them" GPT 5.4/5.5 running internally to accelerate R&D and product development for OpenAI is very different from it being commercially viable for external inference at a trillion parameter scale

@tenobrus I haven’t handwritten more than 1000 lines of code in over a year probably lol

professional software engineers: have you handwritten more than 1000 lines of code in the last month?

Lol i needed this like 4 hours ago badly, so i had to download RVNC Viewer Funny timing

@dnystedt @TheRealDanSaedi Got any suggested stocks, for the less knowledgeable?

@TheRealDanSaedi Agree 100%

Never mind don’t buy memory stocks buy power controllers

@jmwind “Did you mount the intern yet?” “Uhh what?”

Joined a new AI-native company this week and it’s kind of wild how different it feels already. The laptop arrived, I logged in, and an agent basically took over from there. It set up my dev env, pulled repos, fixed dependency issues, got permissions approved, pointed me at the backlog, linked the architecture docs, and surfaced the Slack debates I actually needed to read before touching production. When I needed context on something, I asked the agent and it found the exact thread from months ago explaining why a decision was made, who owned it, the related Linear issues, and the PRs connected to it. I’ve only been here 3 days but it honestly feels like I’ve worked here for a year because the usual friction and scavenger hunt for context just isn’t there anymore. We should probably stop calling this “onboarding” and rename it to “mounting” because this feels a lot more like mounting a distributed filesystem called “institutional memory” than slowly getting drip-fed context over 6 months.

@VraserX @CCIEKID Aren’t they like the “operational and workload lead” in Stargate, i thought they don’t themselves own the compute on their balance sheets

@CCIEKID Sam also owns it thanks to Stargate.

Elon Musk and Sam Altman are the only ones that truly understand the endgame: If you own the compute, you own the future.

@VictorTaelin (We’re the ducks)

@VictorTaelin The LLMs need rubbery duckies too it seems

Aaand 3 hours later, it failed (obviously) I mean that post was a joke but I honestly don't know how I could possibly solve this problem. Here's the story: While implementing an app in Bend, GPT-5.5 found a bug: some memory was being reclaimed even though there were still pointers to it. This crashed the app, so, it went for a fix. The solution: GPT added a *marker* for objects that *might have been wrongly reclaimed* so that it can rollback the operation later on. This is horrible. It is just sad. There is no scenario on which this would ever be a good idea. Even by READING the idea you can tell it is stupid. This behavior is the only thing preventing me from being outside, playing with the cat, instead of babysitting agents all day. The real issue, ofc, is that a primitive function was cloning pointers without marking them as "shared". But what makes me the most upset is HOW I made the AI realize this. It went more or less like this: "Hey, do you understand how Bend reclaims memory?" "Yes, ." "Okay, and what was the bug?" "Yes, ." "Is that possible given your explanation?" "No, that should never happen." "Do you see the problem now?" "Yes. Let me fix it." Like. I didn't spell out the solution. I just told him that it did a bad thing, and asked it to pay more attention. It then figured and implemented the correct solution all on its own. So, basically: - GPT 5.5 was smart enough to find the bug - GPT 5.5 was smart enough to understand the bug - GPT 5.5 was smart enough to understand the system - GPT 5.5 was smart enough to fix the bug But it didn't by default. It just duct taped a terrible patch that would leave the project in a permanently broken state and eventually explode. Until I asked it to "do it right". And then it did. But why. Why do I need to be here watching. Why can't it do that on its own. So close. Yet, so far...