Jeffrey Currie 🆔++

hello [Commodity] world @abaxx_tech @abaxx_exchange

Thanks @AlanEyre1. From Washington to Beijing, the response has been the same: reassure markets with words and hundreds of millions of barrels from strategic reserves. The gamble is that governments can bridge the gap until supply returns and prices fall. The problem is that a falling oil price is not evidence of rebalancing. It is evidence that we are consuming the buffer and mistaking it for abundance. There is a difference between a market clearing and a market solving. What we are witnessing is destocking: the drawdown of finite inventories accumulated over decades. You can only do that once. The article notes that “inventories and government reserves run low”, but that understates the issue. Strategic reserves buy time, not supply. When tank bottoms arrive (likely later this summer), there is no price signal that conjures a new barrel into existence. The “stream finds its way around the log” metaphor is seductive but flawed. It assumes the total volume of water is unchanged and that we don’t mind being thirsty. The Strait’s closure has not simply redirected supply; it has removed supply while the world burns through stored reserves to cover the gap. When Jimmy Carter asked Americans to turn down the thermostat, he was punished for acknowledging physical constraints. His successors learned to promise abundance instead. That lesson is being applied again today, and the consequences will be proportionally larger for the delay.   You cannot print molecules. And you cannot destock your way to energy security.

Let's revisit this thesis when we stop tapping our reserves and begin to hit tank bottoms. What do you think, @CommodMkt ? nytimes.com/2026/06/04/opi…

Delighted to be Non-Executive Director and Co-Founder with Ivan Murphy (@eyemurph) of 1947 Oil & Gas PLC (@1947plc). A REAL US OIL PRODUCER!

Thank you to @zerohedge for inviting me on to join @AshBennington and @ArjunNMurti for a great discussion on US oil reserves and where we are headed. Long before Iran, we were already seeing the consequences of years of underinvestment across global energy and commodity supply chains. Spare capacity has become increasingly concentrated, inventories remain tight and physical markets are far less resilient than many assume. The Iran War didn’t create these conditions, it exposed and accelerated them.

@fortaellinger @MJazanovich @Amena__Bakr It depends on the willingness of the charterer and the insurance company. But to your point about the toll. That’s not going to work with Saudi and UAE.

@CommodMkt @MJazanovich @Amena__Bakr But UAE and Saudi can use the safe passage near the Iranian coast, as long as it doesn't come with a toll, right?

Once the strait opens we’ll find out the true extent of the damage caused by the war on the Gulf’s energy infrastructure. I’m expecting a fast recovery in production from Saudi Arabia and the UAE (within 3-4 weeks), other countries will take months to recover. #GCC #OOTT

@noruserious @MJazanovich @Amena__Bakr If I am an insurance provider I will demand it, and the mines are remote controlled so they can be off in the current environment when ships cross.

@CommodMkt @MJazanovich @Amena__Bakr Jeff why would u need mine sweeps when it's highly likely that Iran/Oman will cntrl the routes?

Assuming you had a deal and could overcome all of the issues with mine sweeps, insurance and freedom of navigation, I agree with Amena on that timeline, Saudi may even be a little faster than UAE; however, a few things to keep in mind: 1) The uncertainty around future closures needs to be addressed before anyone in their right mind would bring another ship in there - lets remember BAM traffic is still down 60%. 2) In the off chance they get this done in the next 60 days (the mine sweeps alone will likely take 2 months min), the seasonality between 2q and 3q swings by more than 5 mb/d absorbing most of the 4.5 mb/d of shut in Saudi/UAE production, having little effect on the observed balance.

@Amena__Bakr 3-4 weeks is optimistic, no? Any views @CommodMkt ?

@MiloshOffical @robin_j_brooks @AndurandPierre Does not need to be in the price until you have a shortage - we still have a deficit

Ohhh believe you me — I read everything. But you’re deliberately ignoring the bear side argument as it doesn't suit the Bull side hyper narrative. Oil bull markets are not smooth equity-style trends they are scarcity and volatility regimes where price is the only clearing mechanism, not a story about steady growth. And if the market truly believed the "scarcity" narrative over the past 88 days, it would already be in the price. Price is not lagging belief here it is belief expressed in real time. Energy prices have already spoken and they’re not pricing a doomsday scenario "greatest energy crisis of our lifetime", no matter how many barrels are missing on Energy Bulls Excel spreadsheet. The market isn’t trading theory or inventory models; it’s trading realized flow, demand, and positioning. Everything else is just narrative trying to outrun what the market has already discounted.

@robin_j_brooks your comments below reveal a profound lack of understanding of the oil market. Commodity futures price inventory, NOT expectations. That isn't ideology; it's a fact grounded in the economics of carry. The Brent price in your graph is not a risk anyone can actually hold — it's a spot contract stitched together at each expiry. In normal times that's a fair proxy; these are not normal times. Construct a series an investor could truly hold — a rolled BCOM index, or the USO ETF — and the picture inverts: it slopes hard up and to the right, consistent with the largest supply shock in history. USO keeps climbing because the shortage is showing up in the futures curve — not in the headline price on the screen. The carry pays an investor nearly 50% a year, even if the price of oil never moves. The SPR was drawn down before commercial inventories — when it is normally the other way round. Strategic stocks are meant to be the last line of defence, not the first, but this time Washington spent them first, managing headlines not risk. When you have no crude in storage, THEN and only then will the spot price move to a level to destroy demand. I have no idea if it is 150, or 200, or 250. The observed indication from Asia is ~200.

@MiloshOffical @robin_j_brooks @AndurandPierre You never read anything I wrote / a bull market is all about scarcity and price volatility NOT a trending market - that’s what equities do

Hi Jeff, that’s a great sales pitch for trend-following tourists, not an argument for structural bullishness. “Buckle in and hang on” works beautifully only right until the curve flips, roll yield disappears, and passive length becomes trapped liquidity instead of smart money. Passive commodity flows always look invincible during backwardation spikes because volatility does the work for them. The problem is it's confuse convexity from panic with durable fundamentals. As well, the irony is you're openly admitting without realizing that the entire game: these products outperform because they’re harvesting front-end stress and reflexive momentum not because demand suddenly enters some unstoppable Energy super-cycle. Based of your words, your trades only works best when emotion outruns reality. Which is exactly why Energy bulls, gurus, prophets always sound smartest near the highs, but in reality quiet macro deterioration (look at bond market), slowing demand (China, USA Gas Consumption/Population growth if lower today than 10 yrs) and collapsing positioning are already building underneath the Energy Bulls while they’re still busy narrating Mad Max day's scenarios.

@ADaitche @biancoresearch The strip was 70-75 and they need 60

@CommodMkt @biancoresearch Why are producers doing this? To lock-in elevated prices?

The repost details the Wall Street consensus that the Strait is days away from reopening, and this will lead to crude prices plummeting. Add this chart. It shows that most of the net long positions among managed money (CTAs) and Large Speculators were established BEFORE the war began (and made good money), and they have been paring it back since the opening days of the war (prices are higher today). Restated, Wall Street's peak oil bullishness was over two months ago, and they have been pulling back every week. Industry professionals (i.e., Commercial Traders) are on the other side of Wall Street. Which side do you want to be on? @CommodMkt

The passive unlevered long commodity position in oil and base - like all the ETF and index products - is extremely hard to beat in a bull market. They are long vol and unlevered. That’s why I always say buckle in and hang on for the ride. The reason being is the front end of the curve snaps up and down in the vol and they roll into them. BUT in a bear market god help you. They are super easy to beat.

@CommodMkt @robin_j_brooks Long Oil Investors up 41% since March 18th? Interesting to say that, must have missed @AndurandPierre the leverage long Beta Energy Trader.

@tridentxhodler @biancoresearch 💯💯💯

The classic playbook retail long pros short. As an expert I've no regard for the wannabe experts on WallSt. No matter how many credentials they flash 99% have never worn a hardhat and rubber boots. Most can't even find Iran on map, only @biancoresearch @CommodMkt follow them

@MJazanovich @robin_j_brooks This is the key point - there is a big difference between a deficit and a shortage - we are in a deficit now, drawing inventories - once exhausted it becomes a shortage. The deficit is priced into the curve

@robin_j_brooks It is called SPRs and commercial reserves... they are drawing down FAST. Try and value that marginal barrel of oil once China decides to import again and not use their dark oil reserves. Plus do not forget: SPRs are oil loans that traders will have to buy-back on the market

Why did Brent not go to $200? Korea saw a big drop in oil imports from Saudi Arabia, but was able to offset that almost entirely by ramping up imports from Canada and Malaysia. The massive supply crunch that apocalyptic forecasts imply never happened... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-demand-…

@robin_j_brooks Robin it is priced into the curve - that was my entire point! You are drawing inventories at an unprecedented rate so you had unprecedented back over that time period. And this why a long position gave you 41% return even from the high print.

Robin you picked the fight. So you can see your exact words. Completely unacceptable!! Biggest story of 2026: we're 3 months into the biggest supply shock for oil ever and oil prices have NOT gone to $150 or $200. It's always the same commodity analysts making these kind of doom forecasts. Zero analysis. Zero content. Just fear-mongering...

@CommodMkt @biancoresearch @cnbcAsiaTV My suggestion to you would be not to pick fights on X with former Goldman colleagues who know your track record and history.

On @cnbcAsiaTV this morning, @CommodMkt said, "Sell The Tweet, Buy The Molcule." Currie detailed that Trump tweeted five times that the war was effectively over, but it has not happened. The chart shows my guess of the five times. Currie is correct. If you bought the crude oil collapse every time Trump said the war is over, you made $58, even though the price is only up $27 since the war started. Not a bad trading strategy! We are currently on the 6th tweet saying that the war is over; it is still a work in progress. Is this the next great crude oil buying opportunity?

1) If you traded the future you still had to roll; 2) the USO and BNO are the futures rolled for you; 3) Even I as GS brokerage client cannot trade trade the futures; 4) I have never wavered in 30 years in recommending commodity investment being in an index product - GSCI is tattooed on my forehead 5) you say next to me for 10 years and you know the commodity pitch as well as I do

@CommodMkt @biancoresearch @cnbcAsiaTV You know very well that people traded Brent futures based on your March 18 call that people should go long oil. You picked the peak in the market and people lost a lot of money. I remember you having no clue about oil in 2015 when priced tumbled due to Shale. Spare me...

And how much are LONG OIL INVESTORS UP 41% since March 18th - see chart - I don’t do price targets - and the returns just kept coming - how did your calls do Robin - I think 41% is a great return over the past 50 days - I have not wavered once and won’t waver - COMMODS ARE LONG VOL

@biancoresearch @cnbcAsiaTV @CommodMkt I think people's forecasting track record matters and Jeff's track record in this shock is awful. On March 18, just before Brent tumbled, he told people to go long and close their eyes. Jeff is just a momentum guy. When something goes up, he says it'll go up more and vice versa.

@robin_j_brooks And how much are LONG OIL INVESTORS UP 41% since March 18th - see chart - I don’t do price targets - and the returns just kept coming - how did your calls do Robin - I think 41% is a great return over the past 50 days

@CommodMkt On March 18, just before Brent tumbled, you told markets "to get long, buckle your seatbelt and hang on for the ride." You made the basic error of piling on when it was easy and fashionable. Your forecasts in this shock are terrible and no amount of bluster from you hides that...

Great chart! Completely agree that that’s the definition of a super cycle but you need crude prices and hence returns to move first to get them to spend. Historically that “convincing” phase takes about 3 years. The metal guys are just now in the “spending” phase. And when they start spending that’s when you trend higher as costs go up. Think about 2002 to 2005 as the convincing phase and 2005-2012 as the spending phase. The big question is when to stop spending. Those that kept spending into 2014 may they RIP. Where do you think the hyperscalers are in this process. 0% FCF yield should give you a hint.

It's not a "super cycle" until the companies believe it via ramping capex once again.