John Wix

Plan for the week🧵: $SPY remains in a technical correction. Note de-grossing weeks (red arrows) come in pairs

ok I’ll be in cash from here until $NDX tests $22K. Might be a month, or three months but seasonality not great into April, those hiding in staples/industrials and $WMT need to get smoked, retail investors getting shaky, VIX needs to get above 25

TRADERS BOOST FED HIKE BETS TO 50% AS YIELDS SPIKE US Treasury yields jumped after traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike to 50% by October, citing inflation risks from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Yields rose 9–13 basis points across maturities, with two-year notes most sensitive to policy. Five-year yields topped 4% for the first time since July, and the 10-year climbed to 4.33%, the highest since August. Money markets have shifted from expecting two rate cuts this year to pricing in possible hikes. “The Treasury market is worried about rising inflation as the Iran conflict escalates,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, TD Securities’ US rates strategist.

I feel like everyone forgets that the United States of America has insane amounts of oil that just requires around $100 a barrel to be profitable to extract.

Fellas From which clothing brand did you most recently make a worthwhile purchase? Work, gym, casual — anything

I heard an incredible analogy from a VC friend that I can’t stop thinking about. “The moat in software was the cost of building software. And Claude Code just mass produced a bridge.” It’s wild when you think about the impact of this. The SaaS boom produced a few dozen billionaires and a bunch of zero sum winners. But the AI SaaS era will mass produce millionaires. There will be fewer ServiceTitans hitting $5B valuations, and instead there will be 50,000 companies doing $500K-$5M each, run by 1-3 people with deep expertise and huge margins. To be clear, I believe that the total value of software goes up, and the number of companies created goes up exponentially. But the number of people who capture the value also goes up 100x. I don’t believe in the “SaaS is dying” headline, I think it’s missing the point. It’s simply that the power of SaaS is changing hands.

$VIST feels like it can be a monster stock this year

Did some research over the weekend $VIST is the best pure play over all of these