Simon Staszkiewicz

Next up is ground invasion and either oil export bans or oil and gas windfall taxes because “oil companies shouldn’t be profiting while our soldiers are dying” as if this was all unavoidable. #oott

@SpecialSitsNews What happens to the petrodollar if they decide not to toll ships that paid in non-USD?

Iran could make more money from tolling than from oil...what a mess

@BRICSinfo Sure, I can offer to host talks that won't happen too.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Pakistan says it will host talks between US and Iran, AP reports.

@HayekAndKeynes This does not equate to a 20% reduction in personal crude oil/oil products consumption.

While this is the most extreme fuel disruption the world has ever experienced, it’s interesting how even cutting fuel consumption by 20% is not a difficult thing to do. It doesn’t make any difference to my personal finances, but I’ve been curious whether I could actually reduce my consumption by 10% or 20% without a lot of sacrifice, so I monitored what I did this week and tried to be intentional. Switching from my diesel to my EV was the easiest change, and I honestly didn’t drive it at all this week and used the golf cart for small trips around town. However, we’re going on a road trip now, and I don’t want to deal with supercharger wait times and range anxiety, so we took the diesel. I was curious how much speed changes would impact fuel economy. At 80 mph we got 18 miles per gallon, and at 60 mph we got 28 mpg—pretty absurd. I’m sure that those who are more constrained financially will just skip trips or carpool and will definitely take a more fuel-efficient option. I feel very confident that the world can make similar changes if nudged a little. Something could even come from the top down, like going back to a hybrid schedule if needed. That’s one of the few things workers would actually cheer for. The other part is the actual magnitude of fuel expenses. Assume someone drives 10,000 miles a year and gets 25 miles per gallon. You’re only talking about 400 gallons a year. That means a $2–3 jump in gasoline prices is not even $75–100 a month. Less for cities, more for rural areas. Likely for 3-9 months in duration. I would expect tourism (esp road trips) to be the natural casualty as this just adds a modest expense to a discretionary purchase that’s on the bubble for most. My other observation is that this seems more likely to be a medium-term deflationary force, as we make modest behavioral shifts that favor fuel economy while rushing to bring new supply to market.

Two weeks to secure the Da Nang airbase. “The U.S. Marine Force will not, repeat not, engage in day-to-day actions against the Viet Cong.”

@FirstSquawk Sounds like the kind of involvement that the Houthis warned against.

SAUDI ARABIA, TURKEY & EGYPT COULD FORM CONSORTIUM TO MANAGE OIL FLOWS THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ, HAVE ASKED PAKISTAN TO PARTICIPATE - SOURCES

@LukeGromen Judge us not by our war crimes, but by the 10y UST yield.

Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows":

@luckynumb3r27 @FirstSquawk Are drone sites a thing? They can be deployed from basically anywhere. Iran also has a small fleet of minisubs but I don't think those will be very useful for combat, mostly just mining. We'll see!

@Stasmo @FirstSquawk Destroyers don't go in alone. The US won't even start a transit until they’ve used carrier-based air power to clear out those shore batteries and drone sites. The conversation ends once them Tomahawks start flying.

Countries met in Pakistan to prevent disruption in oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global crude supply. Proposal: •Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt may form a consortium to manage and secure tanker movement. •Pakistan has been asked to participate. •Objective is coordinated control, security, and smooth flow of oil shipments. Diplomatic angle: •Plan has been informally discussed with both the United States and Iran, indicating a de-escalation attempt rather than conflict. Why this matters: •Strait handles ~20% of global oil → any disruption spikes prices. •This plan aims to remove supply shock risk and stabilize shipping.

@JasonL_Capital @KobeissiLetter Probably easier to switch up the portfolio than to achieve world peace.

@KobeissiLetter Can we all just get along. For the sake of my portfolio.

IRAN’S SPEAKER OF THE PARLIAMENT: “The US speaks of negotiations in public, but plans a ground attack on secret… Iran’s armed forces are waiting for the US’ arrival.”

@gbrew24 It’s more nonsense to try to calm markets. Why do you think there are currently no US destroyers in the strait? Not hard to figure out what’s going to happen here.

Saudi, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan are working on a diplomatic solution to Hormuz. Presumably they don't have much confidence the US can open it by force. The proposed solution of a consortium would include the US and Iran.

@FirstSquawk My guess is that the first war ship will be sunk before it even makes it through the strait to the other side, and the rest will turn around.

@FirstSquawk The US won’t bring any destroyers into the strait because they would be sunk pretty quickly, but let these other nations try I guess. It could potentially dampen the oil shock for a day or 2.

@KobeissiLetter What’s also illegal and unacceptable is starting a war without congressional approval.

BREAKING: Iran has drafted legislation to create the "Hormuz Law" which is expected create a formal toll system for the Strait of Hormuz. Preliminary details include: 1. Hormuz Law to introduce fees on navigation and pollution in the Strait of Hormuz 2. Draft legislation also includes creation of a "regional fund" 3. The move is seen as an attempt to formalize long-term tolls on global shipping routes 4. The US has called these tolls on the Strait of Hormuz both "illegal" and "unacceptable" The Strait of Hormuz situation is becoming even more complicated.

@MB_Hogan Not as rare as the largest oil shock the world has ever seen. Hasn't happened in many decades.

How rare is a 5-week S&P 500 losing streak? This is only the 2nd time this has happened in the last decade...

@CarlZha It'll buff out.

U.S officials said this E3 Sentry AWACS plane had been "damaged" The damage:

@ekwufinance Thank you! I've been pounding the table for days about the petrodollar. If they leave now and Iran starts tolling the strait? They could waive the toll for cargo paid in non-USD. This is why they can't leave and are about to be sucked into another disaster war.

Trump: losing world reserve currency would be worse than losing a major war, we wouldn't be the same country anymore And yet, it looks like the US is heading toward both. - It has suffered a humiliating defeat against Iran - Is about to lose the petrodollar The petrodollar system only works as long as the US can enforce it... militarily and politically. That was always the deal. Security in exchange for oil being sold in USD and surpluses being recycled into US assets. The GCC are quickly realizing that they got a target on their back instead of security. This means new alliances emerge, new deals are being made... multipolarity sets in That’s exactly what we are seeing now. - China is already pushing the yuan as an alternative. - yuan foreign bond issuance is surging 3x yoy - Iran demanding yuan for Hormuz transit Step by step, settlement moves away from USD. Less dollar demand -> less recycling into Treasuries -> higher yields -> more pressure on the system

@DarioCpx I would be more concerned with wheat. It's a larger global crop, and I believe the parts of the world where it's grown are the ones where fertilizer is more likely to be in shortage.

Dear followers, if anyone is expert on Corn please lmk in the comments. Currently looking into Corn because is the crop where the use of Nitrogen fertilisers made off Natural Gas is the most intense and there are going to be significant shortages of this soon because of Hormuz

@Nishant_Bliss They have told the world they want regime change. They're not getting it with bombing. They can't leave now or Iran will toll the strait and it will be a humiliating defeat. They will signal that they're talking/negotiating and Iran will deny it. Then they'll invade.

Yesterday, JD Vance signals the U.S. won’t stay in Iran for long. Today, Pentagon reports suggest possible troop deployment for the next 2 months. Tomorrow, don’t be surprised if Donald Trump talks ceasefire. My view is simple: The U.S. cannot afford a prolonged war right now. High debt, shaky markets, and internal protests against Trump are already building. Sustaining a long conflict only makes things worse. This ends sooner than most expect. Come back to this in a few days, you’ll likely see either a ceasefire, negotiations, or a complete de-escalation.

@ImBreckWorsham I have this theory that he has some sort of terminal illness and is now doing whatever he feels like doing that day, without really thinking about the consequences.

Do you think Trump is intentionally trying to destroy America because he’s evil, because he’s being blackmailed by Israel, or is he just senile and incompetent?

@Rory_Johnston I'm sure you've seen the highlights from the leadership convention. The NDP is imploding.

Mr factories full of sunlight [unsurprisingly] just won the contest to become the leader of Canada's New Democratic Party (NDP, the leftmost party in Canada) Wrong guy at the wrong time for Canadian progressivism.