Vulpes Bio

1.9K posts

Vulpes Bio banner
Vulpes Bio

Vulpes Bio

@Vulpescap

B.S/PhD in Biology Former analyst at biotech-specialist HF Citizen of Graham and Doddsville VIC member Not investment advice, my opinions only

Bergabung Nisan 2024
160 Mengikuti1.8K Pengikut
A.A
A.A@a_a_free·
Sorry I waited for this moment to troll you :p because you clearly did some misses on this one and it was 70% that it's gonna be approved. Well done on the previous hits but you got lucky because those companies are already shitcos. DNLI is well managed company and they know what they are doing.
Biotech Autist@BiotechAutist

1/ I’m SHORT $DNLI. They filed a safety study as their pivotal trial in the BLA. This application relies entirely on the clinical assumption that the FDA employs morons who treat uncontrolled substrate shifts like stone tablets from God.

English
1
0
9
2.8K
Vulpes Bio
Vulpes Bio@Vulpescap·
@BiotechAutist @a_a_free Getting up to speed on this now, did fda not say that it’s reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit?
English
1
0
1
223
Biotech Autist
Biotech Autist@BiotechAutist·
Stifel definitely sounded constructive, but I think you’re overreading it. Label discussions and late-cycle review are process signals, not approval signals. Companies can be in labeling talks and still get a crl (example: aldx). CDER vs CBER helps a bit at the margin, but it doesn’t change the evidentiary standard. The real questions are still whether FDA accepts CSF HS as reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit and whether the single-arm Phase 1/2 package is awc enough.
English
1
0
2
345
Endless Capit🅰️l
Endless Capit🅰️l@endless_frank·
I’m really sick of this shit. I’m a total Trump supporter. Never voted against him. For 6 months now, markets get fucking destroyed on every attempt to rally 1%. I understand that Iran was and is a threat and we need to do what’s right for humanity by neutralizing that threat, but I’m sick of this insider shit. Some large cohort of insiders knew for 6 months what was coming and sold every single fucking rally since. This is not a market, it’s a 3rd world casino and I’m really fucking tired of it. My vote will not EVER be for a democrat. I don’t believe in open borders to criminals, I don’t believe in shoving the LGBTQ flag and transgender’ism in anyone’s faces and I don’t believe in crooked politicians that enrich themselves through fraud LLC’s and NGO’s, but I also don’t believe in is this bullshit that I’m witnessing in markets. Everything is a complete fucking fraud and maybe @TuckerCarlson has a point. The American way has lost itself. There are frauds literally everywhere on both sides of the isle and it’s destroying this country inside out.
English
1.8K
281
3.1K
1.2M
Vulpes Bio
Vulpes Bio@Vulpescap·
Sad day when IRGC is more believable than POTUS. Took advantage of Trump's pumping to buy puts. Can't TACO without IRGC on board - why would they help him?
English
1
0
10
1.1K
Vulpes Bio
Vulpes Bio@Vulpescap·
In my entire life -- People I've personally known who've been killed/injured in combat: 2 People I've heard of who were trans and used a public bathroom controversially: 0 It sucks that dems made this their agenda and gave the election away but my god the electorate is stupid
English
0
0
9
590
Vulpes Bio
Vulpes Bio@Vulpescap·
It's doesn't make sense to me that Americans care so much about a $1/gal increase at the pump (~$40/month for the lowest quintile of income, per BLS) but don't stop smoking ($200/month and you smell like shit).
English
2
0
2
1.1K
Vulpes Bio
Vulpes Bio@Vulpescap·
I have always been a heavy user of the em-dash but am self conscious of using them for fear of people thinking I am copy/pasting AI. Sad: I use colons now
English
0
0
12
833
Andrew Walker
Andrew Walker@AndrewRangeley·
Excited to have fintwit's biotech whisperer, @A_May_MD , on the podcast tmr. We'll be talking all things biotech and maybe some $NKTR and $ABVX. Any questions for Adam?
English
43
0
193
18K
Vulpes Bio
Vulpes Bio@Vulpescap·
@RetroCoast Sir, have you ever visited America? Most of us can barely read (literally)
English
0
0
0
130
Retro Coast
Retro Coast@RetroCoast·
Trump has badly misjudged the character of America. In fact, he shows he doesn't understand it at all. He talks like a violent bully: "It's an honor to kill them," "Bomb them for fun." Americans don't talk like that. We are not bullies.
English
731
911
5.8K
65.6K
Vulpes Bio
Vulpes Bio@Vulpescap·
@seedy19tron BioX meetup/field trip to watch Seedy's cricket team wen?
English
1
0
8
785
Seedy19
Seedy19@seedy19tron·
The Weekly 🌱 New: Increased: $slno , $abvx , $nktr , $tern , $anl Unchanged: $rytm , $nxtc , $cntx Decreased: $ovid Closed: $lqda , $pasg , $cmps , $dawn Quick update for everyone, I might have to separate biotech and cricket updates at this point just so everyone’s feeds are not clogged with information they have no interest in. Apologies for that. Since the last weekly $dawn got bought out , which worked out really well, was a double in a 3-4 month time horizon. I’ve been stressing that good onco launches get bought and we saw that with $dawn again. I’m actually bullish $Lqda for the legal verdict, but with all the uncertainty around even outside the name itself , better to pass until more clarity. The puts are expensive and no clarity on timing otherwise I’d have hedged for sure and stayed long. I increased my stakes in all of the positions I’m bullish in, think alongside just general weakness and geopolitical uncertainty gave me a few opportunities to add. $slno though again overreacting to a FAERS report so that was an easy add. Whereas $tern is in that hot zone for M&A , Avoro added last quarter so it’s one of those chances you take. $abvx has gotten a ~1B cheaper for any US acquirer as the $ is up 5% vs the € . Maybe this brings $lly back to the table. Also $lly are having a monster few quarters, this is just a flash in the pan for them. $nktr AA data in not too long, could give it another leg up. Also litigation sometime this year too, let’s see if Lilly settle. $nktr balance sheet is strong now, so they have leverage in partnership decisions. $anl will have a monster day one of these days. Still long way to catch up to $eras Other than that , looks like $tern and $abvx probably next ones to go in my portfolio. I’m averaging less than one takeout a year so idk $imgn ‘23 , nil ‘24 , $cdtx ‘25 , $dawn ‘26. Here’s to hoping we get more M&A , big pharma been awfully quiet this year… As I have less time to focus on markets till the end of the cricket season (end first week of May) expect very minimal updates. I have also shuffled my portfolio and risk so that I can manage the cricketing side of things appropriately and with a 100% of my ability.
English
39
5
230
33.5K
epickram
epickram@epickram·
@Vulpescap FS has anywhere from 3.1-4.8B in 2032
English
1
0
2
297
Vulpes Bio
Vulpes Bio@Vulpescap·
Can anyone with bloomberg terminal please tell me what the range/median of analyst estimates of cobenfy sales thru '33 are?
English
1
0
5
2.6K
Vulpes Bio
Vulpes Bio@Vulpescap·
somebody get this guy a summer internship in a lab
Dustin@r0ck3t23

Jensen Huang just called the exact top of the pharmaceutical industry. Not a pivot. Not a disruption. An extinction event. Huang: “Where do I think the next amazing revolution is going to come? And this is going to be flat out one of the biggest ones ever. There’s no question that digital biology is going to be it.” The medical establishment has spent centuries playing a chaotic game of trial and error. We’re about to mathematically engineer the human operating system. Huang: “For the very first time in human history, biology has the opportunity to be engineering, not science. When something becomes engineering, not science, it becomes less sporadic and exponentially improving.” Biology is no longer the dark art of random discovery. It’s a predictable, compounding execution loop. Translate the chaotic variables of chemistry into the laws of computer science and you stop waiting for accidental breakthroughs. You simply compute the cure. That line should terrify every pharmaceutical executive alive. Huang: “It can compound on the benefits of the previous years. And every researcher’s contributions compound on each other.” For decades, drug discovery has been an isolated, artisanal process. One lab. One team. One molecule. Years of blind iteration. The algorithm just shattered that entire bottleneck. Every failed protein fold, every successful synthetic molecule instantly trains the foundational model. Makes the next iteration mathematically smarter. Huang: “We’re going to have incredible tools that bring the world of biology, which is very chaotic and constantly changing and diverse and complex, into the world of computer science. And that is going to be profound.” Incumbent pharma looks at the human body and sees an unmanageable wall of variables. Engineers look at that exact same body and see raw data waiting to be compiled. No longer guessing how a molecule will react in the physical world. Running millions of zero-cost simulated iterations before a single test tube is ever touched. Rip the chaotic friction out of the physical lab and drop it directly into a massive GPU cluster? The timeline to map, edit, and optimize the biological machine doesn’t shrink. It collapses.

English
1
2
35
7.6K
tony
tony@Anthony_TayIor·
$ALDX Mechanistically this doesn't work The reactive aldehyde species (RASP) that Reproxalap is blocking are downstream damage markers of inflammation. Not the cause of the inflammation. This is why RASP targeting does not have clinical benefit.
English
4
0
8
2.1K
Vulpes Bio
Vulpes Bio@Vulpescap·
There is no evidence that orally microdosing does anything. The patients who are improving in RCTs are on a monster dose straight to the vein (IV). In fact, the trials even use low doses as a comparitor because they don't do anything. Placebo effect is very strong in psych. that's probably what you're experiencing on a microdose of shrooms
English
0
0
0
29