ZG44 Market Analytics

@sprainhill @TheStalwart That selloff was like double the velocity of this one though: both selloffs were around 30-35 sessions but April 2025 was twice as deep. Also took around 50 sessions to get to ATHs last year..., just like 11 this time. This is among the fastest recoveries ever from a selloff.

@TheStalwart We are seeing this all the time now. Exact same pattern as April 2025 tariffs selloff and recovery imho

The weird thing about how stocks have gone vertical over the last two weeks is that the initial drop itself wasn't that severe. It was that slow drip. It's one thing to go vertical after a steep drop. But this a rare "take the stairs down, take the elevator up" type scenario

@karenbutts5535 @IngrahamAngle His platform is similar just without the pro-Russia/pro-corruption bent and more of a lean towards integrating economically with Europe. Most of his actual policies wouldn't be different otherwise, he's a conservative politician.

@IngrahamAngle I have so many questions. How was his platform different than his opponent before he was elected? And how has it changed now? What made globalists think he was on their team🤔

This is one for the ages.

@conorsen @justridebike There is a lot of stuff under the hood that is more like peak mania moves than anything else imo.

@conorsen @justridebike The equivalent of $CAR's short squeeze (AVIS) among other long selling stocks going vertical is probably closer to early 2021 than anything in 2020. Similar with $BIRD becoming an AI company and dropping their shoe business.

To the extent Covid is the analogy for the war in Iran’s impact on markets, it might be April-May 2020 rather than February 2020.

@hobbyinvestor25 @ariadnisaa @ThinFloat @jbulltard1 People short things on the way up. I've seen people try a half dozen times to short $CAR the past 3 weeks. Finally working today a little bit. But yeah people try shorting these things the whole way up and end up buying back into it and helping fuel the rise on the back end.

@ariadnisaa @ThinFloat @jbulltard1 Valid but shorts generally know how to make money even if they are in water at first… i absolutely HATE shorts and hedge funds that solely short but this couldn’t be a more obvious short…. NFA OF COURSE

The shorts who die in these moves always fascinate me.

@Michael_P_USA @Rory_Johnston He won't get a crappy deal; it'll probably be something that isn't perfect but liveable. The blockade makes the Strait situation put a lot of pressure on Iran too. Markets are still expecting this to all get wrapped up by end of month, and I don't see reason to doubt that yet.

From Iran's perspective keeping the Strait closed for a full month while not being actively bombed is an ideal position from which to continue building steady leverage. Truly hope this ends soon, but, again, this remains a crisis of lost time—and this sounds like more time lost.

@Michael_P_USA @Rory_Johnston I would bet money this is all wrapped up before WC starts and late June at the very latest. Just hard to believe Trump will allow this to overshadow any of those major events given what they mean to him.

@Michael_P_USA @Rory_Johnston Also the World Cup and 250 year July 4 celebrations are coming up; Trump likely wants all this wrapped up before then given how central he is to those events.

@DGoose512 @KenMathis @Rory_Johnston US consumers don't care about Iran enough to be willing to withstand $120 oil and not make a stink about it.

@DGoose512 @KenMathis @Rory_Johnston Because Trump is mercurial and won't want oil prices spiking into June/July and peak driving season right before an election. Sometimes it's that simple. That's Iran's only leverage and it's probably good leverage knowing how Trump acts.

@DBatDad @porc4000 @Rory_Johnston You're right, and I think futures may move up when they see what the real "recovery" rate is. Right now we're priced in for a rapid return to normal. If it takes longer than what's priced in, i.e. a slow traffic increase, then May/June oil will have to show that.

@ZG44_Analytics @porc4000 @Rory_Johnston +1 No freakin way SoH is going back to steady 80% traffic thought even if there's a jail break right now.

HSBC CEO “The highest I’ve seen, and I’m hoping we don’t see more of that, but the highest I’ve seen is $286 for a barrel of oil that reached Sri Lanka” That’s a delivered barrel so includes shipping, insurance, etc. But it’s still an eye-watering price to pay. FT full quote:

@stepnotonpets When are they going to release the investor deck? Is there something they're waiting for?

$BCAR

@SnapTheJapnese @ItsThomAnt @NickTimiraos Trump literally just wants a huge number of rate cuts. That's it. That's all he knows or thinks about with the Fed.

@ItsThomAnt @NickTimiraos hahahah. I can say, with 100% certainty, that Trump does NOT care about money waste. He cares about getting what he wants (when he wants it). He wants a loyalist at the FED, to do what he says, when he says it. That is all.

Trump tells Bartiromo he doesn't want to drop any Fed probe because he thinks the cost overruns need to be examined. He says Tillis's threat to delay Warsh's confirmation isn't serious... and if it is, he'll fire Powell after Powell's term ends wsj.com/economy/centra…

@wiseonesuk @MrMBrown They won't be the last to do this. Honestly surprised we're not seeing more of it. When people see the stock go crazy, maybe there will be more of this.

@MrMBrown It’s one of David Sachs companies. Explains a lot

What. The. Hell.

@porc4000 @Rory_Johnston Markets are guessing Trump and Iran will have a deal soon.

@porc4000 @Rory_Johnston If Strait traffic stays at these levels then sure delivered oil in May/June will make the current futures prices look like a joke. If war ends and Strait traffic is back above 80-90% of pre-war levels in next 2 weeks, then May/June futures will be correct. No goalpost shift imo.