@daltonbrewer Yes. I’ll trade in my Model Y for this one. I need the extra row.
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cabbageball
1K posts
cabbageball
@cabbageball
Crypto, mountain biking, and some politics.
Bergabung Temmuz 2010
342 Mengikuti66 Pengikut
Will you purchase the Model Y L when Tesla releases it in the U.S.?
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@Micro2Macr0 Jesse got me looking into bitcoin miners and buying a Tesla! Both have great decisions. 🤣
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I don't want to EVER hear ANYONE say that I don't represent @Tesla and @elonmusk in the best of light.
I owe them A LOT. We all do. Even if you don't understand that yet.
Hodler@TSLAshareholder
jeremy 🤣 $tsla
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Tomorrow @ 7am, I'll tell you why?
1. The Israel/Iran war is almost over.
2. Why China can't invade Taiwan because of what's happened in Iran.
3. Why Bitcoin is headed into full bounce mode.
4. What are the hottest #Bitcoin Treasury's and more. :)
youtube.com/live/Ar6JAjuDI…
YouTube
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cabbageball me-retweet
cabbageball me-retweet
@amitisinvesting I used grab extensivly while in Thailand. I felt the workers made the difference compared to Uber and DoorDash. Not sure how successful they would be outside of Asia.
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@cabbageball It’s a super app in southeast asia that is all of those apps and more combined with 30% of it's marketcap trading in cash and now profitable:
amit@amitisinvesting
I think $GRAB is up next. Going to highlight all of the DD I've been compiling on this name over the past month so it'll be a long post. Would love to hear counter perspectives, people who think the thesis makes sense & where folks see the issues/opportunity on this ticker. I have a heavy position of around $80K+ that could be used in many other names (like buying the $NVDA dip which probably would be much safer) so to me, there is a level of asymmetry that I think can play out over the coming years. Alright, I've spent a minimum of 100 hours over the past month going deep on this one...let's get into it. So, what's $GRAB? In short, Grab is a super-app in Southeast Asia. Think PayPal, Shopify, Uber and Doordash combined. The super-app concept has not worked well in America, maybe Elon can change that with X, but across the world -- users do enjoy being able to centralize all their daily tasks inside one product. China is the strongest example with WeChat. $GRAB trades on the Nasdaq. When you buy shares, you are not buying ADRs. The company is headquartered in Singapore and from my research has the cleanest books for a company reporting from the region, especially due to the quality of investors they have (Uber, Brad Gerstner, Morgan Stanley, etc) so the fear of accounting issues or misreporting numbers is not there, especially given the quality of management that we will discuss. Why is the name getting my attention? - Trades at 30% cash, meaning every $1.35 you buy per share is cash. $18B market cap with $6B in cash. - Revenue growth of 17% YoY (20% in constant currency) - 5 consecutive quarters of positive EBITDA - 3 consecutive quarters of positive FCF - Became GAAP profitable last quarter - Monthly Transacting Users is growing 16% YoY to 42M - Chart has potential to break out from a 3-yr consolidation - Southeast Asia is one of my favorite emerging markets When I was first introduced to $GRAB, I was told it was the "Uber of Southeast Asia." This was cool to me, but it wasn't something that would get me to invest. Only upon actually looking deeper into the name and the financials was it becoming evident to me that these guys don't just want to be Uber, they want to be a central part of every single aspect inside a person's life in Southeast Asia... What's the long term vision? To understand this, we have to go a bit deeper into why the company was founded + the SEA region. Grab was founded by Anthony Tan and Tan Ling -- the idea originally was to make a service that was safe when it came to getting a taxi at night. They both realized how large the SEA region was in regards to demand for this product and quickly began expanding, raising billions of dollars and eventually going public through a SPAC. One of the founders, Anthony Tan, still runs the company to this day which is a very big green flag to me. I really, really like when founders still run the company as the sacrifice and pain needed to actually take something to new heights usually is only understood by a founder. The SEA region is an incredible opportunity where growth will CAGR strongly at over the coming decade. There's about 700M people (42M of them use Grab every month) and most of the population is beginning to come online with smartphone penetration expected to be 85% in the region by 2030. The only other market that is similar in terms of growth is India, growing GDP at 7%. The top 6 countries in SEA are growing GDP at an average of 5.1%. So, if we have a region of 700M people that all are earning more money, coming online, embracing new technologies and need/want transportation, groceries, financial services, and e-commerce....the opportunity now becomes around which companies have the network effects to create synchronous experiences via their brands that connect all those consumers and products together. I believe $GRAB will be that company. What are the major parts of their business? Deliveries -- GMV growing 12%, revenue growing 13% Mobility -- GMV growing 20%, revenue growing 17% Financial services -- Loan portfolio growing 81%, revenue growing 34% The biggest element of their growth is that Adjusted EBITDA is growing 35% on average across all these categories. During Q3 2024, $GRAB raised their adjusted EBITDA to $308 million - $313 million, up more than $30M from the high end of their previous guidance. The mobility and deliveries part of the business I expect to continue to grow because of growth in SEA. Financial services is growing rapidly and I think this is one of the company's best opportunities. They aren't just a ride-hailing app that you can get groceries from, they are become an integrated financial ecosystem that is beneficial for all parties. Merchants can get a loan from Grab and the majority of SEA that is underbanked can now use a product they use everyday to deposit money and have it function as their bank. In fact, one of the most surprising parts of their financial services business is the growth in deposits... From Q3 call: "We've been able to bring in deposits much faster and with less cost than we had even planned. So you've seen that the positive momentum across GXS Bank in Singapore and GXBank in Malaysia, where customer deposits have grown 50% quarter-on-quarter. So over $1 billion now in the third quarter. And then Superbank, which is the Indonesian bank, which only just launched in July, hit 2 million accounts by October by last month. So a really tremendous uptake. So we are able to raise deposits at a very low cost. And therefore, because of the focus we have on data science and the lending model, you can see very clearly that we can continue this very positive data flywheel for lending." $GRAB is growing financial services at 34% YoY, is probably 2 quarters away from being positive in adjusted EBITDA for this segment, grew deposits 50% QoQ and 300% YoY and growing their loan portfolio 81% YoY. From the Q3 PR on deposit growth in the 3 bank they operate: "Growth was driven by an increased number of depositors, with GXBank recording 892,000 deposit customers as traction in Malaysia continues to be strong. GXS Bank also had over 100,000 deposit customers as of the third quarter, growing from over 72,000 depositors as of the last quarter, on the back of the public roll-out of the Boost Pockets in early-September which allows customers to lock their funds for a chosen period of time to earn a boosted interest rate. In Indonesia, Superbank reached 2 million users in October 2024, doubling from 1 million users in August. This was achieved in less than six months following its public launch in June. Integration between Superbank and the Grab ecosystem was the key driver of this growth, with over half of the users coming from Grab." What's more exciting than the growth in financial services is that the only reason this growth is happening is because of $GRAB's ecosystem. A super app should be able to introduce new products and use their network effects to then grow users and upsell them on brand new services. The fact that financial services is showing this type of growth gives me strong confidence that Grab will continue to build and offer new products that are compelling to users in the SEA region, allowing them to penetrate more of the 700M users that could be using Grab. Can you trust management? Short answer: yes. I've done a lot of research on MGMT and my conclusion is that these guys are competent, they know how to present themselves, they can answer analyst questions very well with great detail and they are honest about their future projections for growth. It's very hard to invest in any company when you are worried about MGMT but Anthony Tan (CEO) and Peter Oey (CFO) and Alex Hungate (COO) are rockstars. Additionally, if you go on Linkedin, you can find c-suites that on the ground and actually work with merchants in their restaurants and drive with drivers to deliver products. I really like this MGMT team and think they have the ability to continue executing. Quick note on the founder -- Anthony Tan gave up his relationship with his father to focus on $GRAB and not continue with the family business. To this day, they don't talk. When someone is that hungry to build something for themselves, it means they are going to do everything they can to make it successful. $GRAB is already a success going from an idea to an $18B company, but you don't give up your relationship with your father to go this far. You do that because you want to go all the way and take over the world. I think Anthony Tan has that drive in him. Advertising Advertising is not a massive part of their business, yet has grown nicely and will contribute to about $200M of revenue in 2024. I want to share a quote from MGMT on the Q3 call that highlights how serious the network effects are in this company: "I was just in Indonesia two weeks ago and in Manado. And they had – I met with a burger chain entrepreneur and all of his advertising was done through Grab, both for delivery and for their dining in, which was really powering great success. And he had also taken a loan through the platform. This guy didn't have any account management. So he had actually proposed the loan, I presume, through a whitelisting process by us on the back end and taken down the loan in order to order the beef to manage his working capital for his supply chain for beef, which was obviously his most expensive ingredient. And that was allowing him to grow even faster and open more outlets. So I think self-serve is really, really a key part of our strategy because many of our merchants are small and many of them are in far-flung places like Sulawesi." Every time I read this quote from earnings, I grow deeper to understand why $GRAB is winning in SEA. First, advertisers don't need to pay unless they cant a delivery. This is a BIG deal. It's like PPC in Google/Amazon advertising. If you only have to pay for advertising if it converts, the adoption by merchants should be much stronger. Second, we can see the advertising work simultaneously with their lending and deliveries business -- that's the flywheel. The burger shop owner got a loan from Grab, then advertised with Grab and finally is using Grab to deliver his products to his customers. It's an integrated ecosystem that uniquely can scale in the SEA region and now the FCF and EBITDA has gone positive, that trend should only accelerate those two metrics over the coming years. $GRAB vs $UBER Uber tried to expand to Southeast Asia back in 2018. They failed. They weren't able to beat Grab's already built network effects, even with more incentives and promotions. This was very telling for me during my DD. If a company like $UBER with unlimited resources and capital could not take $GRAB out (which wasn't even half as big as it is today) then it meant that users were choosing Grab for a reason and the network effects were so deep that brand loyalty, brand penetration and overall brand affinity was on the side of Grab. How did this situation resolve? Uber decided they would just take an equity stake in Grab and provide resources to the company to guide them on their path to becoming profitable. The current CEO of Uber is on the board of Grab and has been a very strategic guide for them to navigate into growth, profitability, positive FCF, etc. because Uber went through this exact same journey over the past 4 years. Some large investors in $GRAB: - Morgan Stanley owns 3.2% of the company, 122M shares - $UBER has a 14% stake in the company, 535M shares - Perpetual Asset Management added 45M shares and now owns 1% of the company with an average of $4.31, first buying it Q4 2024 - Altimeter, Brad Gerstner's fund which took the company public via a SPAC in 2021, holds 3,502,000 warrants which expire in December 2026 and have a strike price of $11.50 - SoftBank owns 410M shares, 10.2% of the company What are the major risks to the thesis? - $GRAB is an international company that is effected by FX changes, so if the USD $DXY continues to stay strong, this could hurt $GRAB - Their incentives as a % of GMV (what they pay to get people to keep using the app) may not decline which could hurt their margins and decrease long term FCF growth - Competition could create cracks in the superapp thesis if users choose other products and become less sticky in the $GRAB ecosystem The largest bear case I get against $GRAB tends to actually come from people in the SEA region. Many people in the region are huge fans of the company and are investing in the stock, but there are some that find themselves using competing products because the prices are cheaper, which as a result makes them feel $GRAB has no moat and that there isn't anything special about the company. I think these are fair concerns, but: - MTUs are growing 16% YoY. I understand the anecdotal experience from certain people in the region, but then I also see 42M users...no other company has been able to grow users at this level and keep them on the product. In this respect, I see competition as something to keep an eye on but not a thesis breaker. - $GRAB has 30% of its 10K employees dedicated to R&D. Again, while competition can be an issue, very few companies are actually investing in making sure they can launch new products to differentiate themselves and stay relevant to consumers over the coming years. - Incentives as a % of GMV actually did decline QoQ in Q3 and MGMT has said they will be opportunistic to use incentives going forward. I don't think we will see massive declines in this, but MGMT understands they need to use these in a way that fuel growth. It also seems like MGMT has the discipline to begin bringing costs down substantially in 2025, from Q3: "Regional corporate costs for the quarter were $88 million, compared to $97 million in the same period in 2023. We remain focused on driving cost efficiencies across our organization, with staff costs within regional corporate costs declining 14% YoY." Finally, I think $GRAB is going to acquire smaller competitors over the next few years. Last month, they bought Nham24, from the PR: "Nham24 is a much-loved, homegrown Cambodian brand, having grown rapidly since its launch in 2016 to become one of Cambodia’s most successful tech startups. The deal brings together their rich local expertise and Grab’s leading technology capabilities, particularly in AI, with the aim of fostering greater innovation in the Cambodian market that will benefit local users and everyday entrepreneurs." I went deeper into this acquisition and found out that this was the LARGEST VC exit in the history of Cambodia. $GRAB buying out the company was liquidity for the VCs, showing me that they have the ability to execute on strategic M&A and gobble up marketshare in different parts of SEA to continue growing their top line. Here's another point in competition -- $GRAB is an app for the SEA region, not the United States, but it is number 40 on the entire iOS US App Store. This is a product people in the US can't even use but somehow it is ranked in the top 40 apps. Why? Tourism. The first app people download when they visit the region is Grab. Q4 will likely have a tourism tailwind but the next decade should see a tourism tailwind as well, especially when... "In Indonesia, 50,000 USD can go quite far, especially when compared to the local income levels and cost of living. The amount of 50,000 USD (about 814,495,000 IDR) is significantly higher than the average annual income for most Indonesians, so it would have considerable purchasing power, though not as much as it might in the U.S. due to the lower cost of living." As more US citizens travel to SEA, they have more disposable income to spend, and the majority of that income ends up going to services from a company like $GRAB because of their brand presence in the region. I'm keeping an eye on competition, but it's very hard for me to overlook the FCF and EBITDA growth because some people tell me they use another app to get a cheaper ride. The numbers in aggregate don't prove that competition is a major concern to their long term trajectory. What's my PT? If you are buying $GRAB for a Palantir/HOOD/RKLB type of move from the single digits into the high double digits, I think you will be disappointed. My PT is $10 by 2027. I think 8 quarters of positive EBITDA, FCF and sustained net income while increasing their cash on hand (or buying back their stock) can get this stock to $10, which would be more than a double from todays prices in 2 years. It's not a massive move like some stocks we've seen over the past years, but a double in 2 years would be incredible, especially if you have options to magnify the leverage against the underlying doubling. To get to $10, I'm assuming: - 65% EBIDTA growth for the next 2 years - 40x EV/EBIDTA multiple, which is the current multiple the stock has (Uber and Doordash also share this multiple) - Growing their cash balances from $6B to $8B by end of 2026 This would put EBITDA at around $800M by end of 2026 with a 40X multiple + $8B in cash giving us a $40B market cap divided by 4B shares outstanding leaving a PT of $10. I do think they could grow cash balances even faster and potentially see $10B in cash by end of 2026 (they grew cash balances by $500M last quarter) but it depends on the growth in financial services. With all this cash, we should see further growth through M&A or just share buybacks. They have about $300M left on their current share buyback plan of $500M but I think this can increase to a new 1B buyback plan which would reduce shares outstanding and help EPS growth. If they don't buy back their stock, I expect them to acquire competitors to grow their top line which should further increase EBITDA. Some accounts to follow that discuss $GRAB and the thesis behind it: @GabGrowth @sam_badawi @KrisPatel99 @sachinvats @mvcinvesting @Couch_Investor Overall, I believe the stock has a strong margin of safety given its down 60% over the past 5 years with 30% of their market cap in cash & if 2025 can be an inflection point for them to sustain profitability, EBITDA and FCF growth then the broader thesis for $GRAB has a possibility to play out given their strong position in Southeast Asia. How do you think about $GRAB?
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@Micro2Macr0 @Starlink @Tesla Got a mini for my dad’s trailer when they go to the beach. Being able to FaceTime with the family has been awesome when he is in the middle of nowhere.
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Installing the @Starlink mini was SO easy!!! 😃
Now I have high speed, internet anywhere on earth and my samsung galaxy tablet that I watch youtube videos on automatically connects to the internet right away when I get in my #Cybertruck.
This is so cool! @Tesla
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As usual the NHL playoffs become a contest of who I’m rooting against much more than who I’m rooting for.
Sadly there are so many teams to root against…
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@GoingParabolic As I’m approaching 40, this has become so relavent.
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5 years old - Dad, I love you.
12 years old - Dad, I can't stand you.
16 years old - My Dad is very annoying.
18 years old - I'm leaving this house.
25 years old - Dad, you were right.
30 years old - I want to go to my Dad's house.
50 years old - I don't want to lose my Father.
70 years old - I would give up everything to have my Father here with me.
You only have one Dad. Take care of him while he's still alive.
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cabbageball me-retweet
ELON: THE U.S. SHOULD PRODUCE MORE DRONES
“I think we probably need to invest in drones.
The United States is strong in terms of technology of the items, but the production rate is low.
So, it's a small number of units, relatively speaking.
There's a production rate issue.
Say there's a drone conflict.
The outcome of that drone conflict will be how many drones does each side have in that particular skirmish times the kill ratio.
Let's say the United States would have a set of drones that have a high kill ratio.
But then the other side has far more drones. If you've got a two-to-one kill ratio, but the other side has four times as many drones, you're still going to lose.
I think [scaling our industrial base] is going to be the biggest challenge.”
Source: United States Military Academy West Point, August 2024
Elon Musk@elonmusk
🎯
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Lowest reading since the 2008 GFC.
zerohedge@zerohedge
And there is the capitulation: L/S ratio lowest on record
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I had forgotten what an under appreciated movie Stardust was.
I’ve got a LOT of time to kill over the next 6 months so if you’ve got an under appreciated recommendation I’m all ears.
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cabbageball me-retweet
Right back to the 200 day EMA.
Yes the market is a buy.
The Buy the Dip.
Yes the market chops but IMHO the worst is over.
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cabbageball me-retweet
We've had one of the biggest drops in GDP Growth over the last 25 years. Only comparable to the 2008 GFC (Great Financial Crisis).
So, why do I think we're on the edge of an AGE of ABUNDANCE like mankind has never seen, and that it starts in the good ole USA, this year?
1. Pro Growth Policies
- NO TAXES on Overtime, Social Security, and Tips
- Increased corporate tax breaks
- 100% accelerated depreciation for new factory construction in the USA.
- Incentives for business to be done in the USA to avoid tariffs
- Push to lower energy costs, a base cost that exists across the entire supply chain of products purchased.
- De-regulation. Which can have the following benefits.
a. Increasing margins for companies
b. Allow more innovation
c. Less hoops to jump through, which increases the odds of success.
d. More options
- Gold Card Program - $5 million for a path to US citizenship and expedited process. <-- I think this is brilliant. If we get 200,000 people that sign up for this in the first year, we'll see $1 Trillion in revenue for the US government. That alone would get us between 40-50% of the way to a sustainable budget.
2. Deflationary stances
- Re-emigration - This lowers prices in a number of sectors because we will reduce demand. Think housing/rentals, auto's, and more. Also, the financial burden that came from our government supporting 10 million illegal immigrants who can't easily enter the work force in a low unemployment environment and/or because of they don't speak good english or don't fit required roles.
- Tariffs - First they are NOT Inflationary. I mean technically, they can cause a short term blip in inflation, but the rules of supply and demand will counter that pretty quickly. SEE THE 1st @realDonaldTrump presidency where inflation was 1.5%. Anyway, inflation ends up causing a lot more pain on the country receiving the tariffs than the country putting them out there. In the end, this could be more deflationary, as heavy tariffs could slow down economic activity within country's under strong tariffs. Which means, if anything these push us closer to lowering FED Rates.
3. #DOGE - We're on a strong path to automate and increase efficiencies, while reducing costs substantially. If you don't believe me, look at every company @elonmusk has owned. You'd have to be an idiot to think he won't make government systems MUCH MORE efficient than they've ever been.
4. DOGE Dividend coming soon? This would help stimulate the economy even more.
5. The above will be a HUGE positive for trust in our bond market, which we need to have in order to lower rates. Which ALL Americans benefit from, including the US government, who desperately needs to lower rates in order to lock in longer term debt. This is also very pro-growth but will operate on a lag. Think second half of the year.
6. AI agents, Robotics, and Autonomy, along with other sciences like genomics, are gaining in efficiency at parabolic levels not seen in modern history. As @CathieDWood likes to say, as these converge, we'll see a Golden Age like man kind cannot imagine.
What do you think?
Am I wrong?
Did I missing anything?
Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.
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@Micro2Macr0 This is great!! These types of discussions never happened in the past 4 years!
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