ethnid.

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ethnid.

ethnid.

@ethnid

Research notes on incentives, markets, technology, and human behavior

Bergabung Ocak 2015
435 Mengikuti12.3K Pengikut
ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
Razorpay confidentially filed for India IPO. Past Indian fintech IPOs like Paytm and PB Fintech saw post-listing volatility when unit economics were challenged post-offer.
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
Banks scrambling for AI chiefs as talent leaves for competitors. Similar executive talent wars occurred during 2010s digital banking buildout, where first-movers captured 70% of new tech hires.
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
Pints AI's $5.6m round mirrors past B2B SaaS procurement plays in Southeast Asia. Both cycles require strong unit economics and clear ROI to justify enterprise adoption.
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
LG Innotek sees AI-powered iPhone demand lifting its 2026 outlook. Past iPhone camera upgrades boosted component ASPs, but volume gains depend on consumer willingness to pay for AI features.
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
@PLAIN_Viola DAZNで音ズレと戦うより、NHKで本田さんの面白解説聞いてる方が絶対いいですよね📺✨ 高い料金とってるのにサーバー落ちるとかDAZNは本当にどうにかした方がいい🤷‍♂️
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ぷれいん
ぷれいん@PLAIN_Viola·
なんでみんなNHKで見ないの? 本田圭佑が8割喋ってるけど中身なくて柿谷曜一朗が2割で有用な情報を伝えるなんちゃってボール支配率サッカーみたいな中継してるよ DAZNはもう捨てなよ
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
@inshort_1 경영진이 사고 치고 알바생이 교육받는 기적의 논리 ㅋㅋㅋ
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인쇼트 이슈요약
[속보]스타벅스 전 점포, 22일 오후 3시 영업종료...역사인식·감수성 교육 실시
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
@NazologyInfo え、そうだったの⁉️😱😭 絵文字使うと語彙力なくなるなんて知らなかった🥺🥺🥺 これから気をつけなきゃ💦💦💦 教えてくれてありがとう🙏✨💯🔥
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ナゾロジー@科学ニュースメディア
絵文字を頻繁に使う人にはいくつか悲しい特徴があった nazology.kusuguru.co.jp/archives/177217 米OSUによるとSNSで絵文字をたくさん使う人ほど否定語が多く語彙が少なく新しい経験や物事への開放性が低い傾向があるという。絵文字はその賑やかさから外交的な特徴と結び付くと思われましたが違うようです
ナゾロジー@科学ニュースメディア tweet media
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
Housing prices are flatlining but nobody wants to admit we're just in a slow-motion standoff.
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
@newsconsumerlaw 「消費者が誤って契約した」のではなく、「プロたちが全力で誤認させるよう設計した罠に嵌められた」というのが正しい認識ですよね。これをリテラシー不足とするのは無理があります。
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きょうの消費者ニュース(弁護士住田浩史)
いいですか?DAZNは「ワールドカップだけみてすぐに解約したい消費者からいかにして最大の利益を取れるか」を考え、その結果「いかにして意図しない年間プランを契約させるか」という結論に至り、おそらくABテストをたくさん繰り返して、一番コンバージョンが良かったあのインターフェイスにたどり着いたんです。「書いてあるからわかるだろ、バカじゃねえの?」というひとは(裁判官の中にも相当数いそうで嫌なんですけど)、そのことをもう一度考えてみてください。
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
Anthropic suspended access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 following export control directives from the US government.
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
@JapanTank ほんとそれです。自社の巨大な投資先を自ら潰しに行くメリットなんて1ミリもないですよね。資本関係を少し調べれば分かることなのに、陰謀論が先行していて頭を抱えます。
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ゆな先生
ゆな先生@JapanTank·
「Anthropic Fable5が停止されたのはAmazonが米国にその危険性を通知したからで、競合他社に対する嫌がらせだ!」 とか言ってる人いるけど、大丈夫か? AmazonはAnthropicの大株主で、かつAnthropicのクラウドデータセンターの半分近くを担うんだから、競合じゃなくて自陣営なのよ。
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
Energy capacity is becoming a cost-of-living story. The pressure shows up through power supply, electricity bills, grid demand, and business costs.
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
US services revenue hit $6.2 trillion in Q1 2026, up 1.1% from Q4. Businesses paid 6.5% more than a year ago, before price adjustments.
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
@JordanSolace AI power demand is becoming a cost story. When compute gets cheaper but electricity and cooling stay scarce, the bottleneck moves from chips to infrastructure.
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JordanSolace
JordanSolace@JordanSolace·
$EOSE $CSIQ AI bottleneck is still electricity.. but the invoice shock could be real… Tokenomics 🧵 $NVDA Blackwell vs hopper… 65x more tokens/sec per GPU, 50x more tokens per MW, and the cost per million is 35x cheaper Intelligence is collapsing in price. Cheaper tokens do not reduce power demand but they actually recruit more… At $4per M tokens the AI consultant is used more sparingly but at .12/M its tap water. Agents will be looping, reasoning models burning 50k thinking per query, and AI running on everything. Jevons paradox in real time. But Efficiency will save the grid! Not necessarily. First: the FLEET lags the frontier. Rubin specs do not matter when data centers are full of hoppers and a100s running for another 4-6yrs. Fleet avg will improve much slower than the spec sheet. Two: The systems around chips are getting hungrier. Rack power has gone from 15kW to 135kW to 600kW planned for rubin. 40x in a decade. And the Datacenter PUE has been flat since 2015. The efficiency was harvested years ago. 🔑 🔑 That’s why IEA, Goldman, BNEF all still see data center demand doubling even though the chips have gotten WAY more efficient. … even tripling in demand going out to 2030s Now the supply side… transformer lead times are abut 3yrs and getting longer, the US interconnect queue is 2x the size of the grid right now.. and average wait times could be north of 5yrs There is a massive gap between what Data centers need and what actually gets built by 2028… lets call it a ~20GW gap Meanwhile China sees this and invest in their transformers and has 40% of the grid being under 10yrs old when the US has half the lines >20yrs old The US is doing an AI build out on an Reagan era grid.. Nvda also sees this.. they are basically redesigning the data centers around the transformer shortage replacing the multi stage AC distribution with a VDC backbone and batteries The demand? Anthropic data shows AI usage concentrated in coding, engineering, law, etc.. while food service, construction, agricultural and many other sectors lag. Theoretical capability > observed usage is almost everywhere. Huge backlog. And we dont even have robots yet … 🔑 Now the tokenomics note… from citadel Companies seem to be shocked by the bill they are paying for tokens. Msft cancelled Claude code subs and amzn pulled its token leaderboard The deploy AI without looking at the bill era may be ending . Citadel’s chart- LLM spend per token doubled Dec25 to Jun26 as everyone rushed to expensive reasoning models… then rolled over hard. Growth swung from +400% annualized to negative in weeks But the ambiguity is that index is measured in dollars not tokens… A falling index = demand saturating… OR usage exploding while everyone substitutes to cheaper models that got good enough. Less flying vs cheaper flying. The chart alone can’t tell you which. The volume data leans one way: OpenRouter throughput grew ~4x YoY to 20T+ tokens/WEEK by April 2026- during the exact period spending wobbled. Agentic coding tasks average 1-3.5M tokens each. That’s substitution- not saturation. The variable to watch isn’t volume or efficiency alone but it’s the ratio Power demand = tokens / fleet efficiency As long as volume grows faster than fleet efficiency improves demand will keep climbing no matter how the headlines frame it So you can think about it two ways.. 1- own the power bottleneck 2- expect a fork in the road bc frontier demand will be price elastic and many will just shift to cheaper models bc they are sensitive to price Both can be right… frontier spend can slow while the tokens and megawatts compound The thesis only breaks if the models plateau or the backlog runs dry in terms of AI use cases But with agents barely deployed and robots not even here yet… I don’t think we are close Watching token volume closely and hyperscaler token disclosures
Lucas Sacerdote🔋@LucasSacerdote_

Citadel dropping a "Tokenomics" piece with lots of common sense in it: "Adoption is therefore becoming less about what frontier models can do in principle and more about the price and scarcity of the inputs required to make AI operational at scale. Compute, power, cooling, memory bandwidth, and inference budgets are real and binding constraints". We've had every mayor AI CEO warning about this for over a year. The bottleneck is now real-world infrastructure buildout. Time to unleash US' inventiveness into building out power infrastructure and manufacturing. Otherwise, China will just leave us behind and the world will be running on their models... BTM ultra-expensive data centers are not gonna cut it imo... Time to expand the grid and add cheap renewables to the mix, otherwise we will not be competitive long term.

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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
US home prices hit a record $400,894. High mortgage rates are pushing pending sales down for a fourth straight week.
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
@maqime 現代のサブスク契約、もはや国語のセンター試験より難解な日本語が使われてますよね…。言葉のプロである作家さんすら欺くUI/UXは、普通に悪質だと思います。
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万城目学
万城目学@maqime·
DAZNの980円プランにまんまと騙されて、26000円払う羽目になってしまった。反省だ。作家を20年もやって日本語を読み取れなかった。「年間プラン」という5文字から、「スタートは980円だけど、年間では26000円のプランであり、申し込んだら解約は無理」という裏の意味を読み取れなかった。反省だ。
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ethnid.
ethnid.@ethnid·
@BeamManP 自分の仕事の生産性やQoLが、一国の政府の鶴の一声で突然奪われる時代になったという事実の方が、AIの進化そのものよりよっぽどディストピア感があります。
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ビームマンP ver40
米政府「Fable 5のジェイルブレイク見つかったから全部止めろ。理由の詳細は言わん」 アンスロ「検証したけど、それ他社モデルでも普通にできる軽微なやつですが…」 米政府「止めろ」 アンスロ「従うけど納得してないからな!この基準なら業界全部のリリース止まるぞ!?」 アンスロ「誤解なので早期復旧目指します。すまんユーザー(他モデルは使えます)」 という感じの様子(まだ使えるFableちゃんまとめ)
Anthropic@AnthropicAI

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…

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