JordanSolace
12.5K posts
JordanSolace
@JordanSolace
I own assets & chill. Investor in grid enhancing technologies. Prototypes are easy, production is hard ⚡️🔋
Manhattan, NY Katılım Mayıs 2021
283 Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler
I have to say… every time I fly Alaska Air I am relatively content
👏
Nicer than avg premium class. And the cabins are well kept
Good work @AlaskaAir
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Yes the increased share count to this degree is unfortunate.
But I would counter and say not all dilution is bad. (Woahhhh crazy)
Eos was a science project in 2022. They had a battery system that was straight up … as Joe would say… not a profitable business
Took lots of time, energy, and dilution to make it to this point. As Joe would say…
“We are a structurally profitable business” 😂
Whether or not you wanna believe him is a moot point.
The perception is fundamentally different now than it was in 2022. Let’s at least give them that. Everyone’s arguing about $300m and if they will ever make money instead of getting a credit facility & sota line in tc
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@dmottco @in_retrotech @PressSec @bert_gilfoyle Joking (but maybe not..)
Is there a chance Trump announces a $7b investment in the Mon valley for battery storage next but isn’t talking about eos? 🙃
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Trump administration announces $17B power plant to produce more electricity in southwestern Pa.
post-gazette.com/news/politics-…
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@badgernewman Joe said Q1 in line with Q4. What are your thoughts for Q1
Factor in lighter delivery schedules
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Jordan, my take is that they did $50million in 4th qtr while operating at 60-70% in last month. If you ramp up production to 90% with new QA standards/laser QC, add additional assembly line backup stations where high failure, etc etc. you should easily be at $100 million for the quarter. Then line 2 comes on 3rd qtr and $400million seems very achievable. I like the underpromise, over deliver approach. I think Cerberus came down hard on Joe and team to temper enthusiasm and concentrate on delivering. 1st quarter results will be very critical to their credibility. (and the stock price)
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$EOSE
Not disagreeing about the credibility break, any post q4 reprice/repositioning, nor calling a bottom yet BUT..
Take a step back... think about where the actual bar has now been set. --> below $300m for the 2026.
VERY Doable.
Ask yourself-> what happens if they can actually hit this very low bar imo...
The co. knows it needs to be GM positive or it will die. So does the board.
Thornhill has never been closer --> line 2 🔑
Eos has a war chest (relative) of cash to get them there.
& a DoE backstop
And like ive always said... as long as the batt system works--> no matter how inept Joe is..
Inertia will bring this thing higher.
If macro or whatever forces take us down into the 4s or high 3s in the next few weeks i will be buying heavily, making one last bet on this tech- barring any unforeseen idiosyncratic shock. (This is advice- do not full port this thing) anyway..
These sell side analyst will go with the flow and move their PTs with the price.
if this tech fails.. it will be after they announce a few orders and the conclusion will be --> they just cant deploy this system in the field bc production issues are far too great. And it was never meant to be.. but their will be more customers to give them a chance imo
The bet is Mahaz & co. are putting the final pieces in place to make this tech workable at a greater scale.
Notice how i didnt say "perfect" bc there will be issues... and there will be warranties...
But- its all about relative improvement in terms of how this thing cycles in the field... and that's what is going on behind the scenes.
Think 24--> 25 even though they massively disappointed in q4 (on top line & margin)
And back to credibility... think 12 months from now if they actually hit their guide?
What do you think all these sell side guys will be writing about in terms of credibility?
Just ponder that thought. Sentiment changes quick.
Hire me to lead IR. I'll think about taking it but I want the same RSU schedule as Nate.
Yiannis Zourmpanos@yianisz
$EOSE's persistent decline isn’t just a typical post-earnings selloff, it’s the market still repricing a credibility break. After the Q4 miss, the stock has continued to drift lower as lawsuits pile up and confidence in management weakens. The dominant story this week is a wave of securities fraud class action lawsuits being filed and publicized. Multiple law firms (Bleichmar Fonti & Auld, Gross Law Firm, Rosen Law Firm, Kirby McInerney, Block & Leviton) all announced or amplified class action filings.. At the same time, the CEO has stepped in with insider buying, which on the surface supports sentiment. But context matters, prior selling at higher levels and a pattern of overpromising make this look more reactive than reassuring.
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No worries Johnny, you are allowed to give me a tough time.
In a world where they actually hit guide.
I think sentiment around the name will actually change.
$300m should be enough to prove product validation which is enough to continue propelling this thing higher.
Buying at $4.50 doesn’t mean I’m playing for $50+ by 2028
Maybe I’m just playing to exit at $7 🤔
Times have … changed? Lol
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@JordanSolace Sorry I’m giving you a hard time. I just don’t want to own it if they’re doing 300m.
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@johnny85208429 I didn’t touch on it in depth one time lol
But - given what we know today. Barring no unforeseen eos specific events.
The valuation isn’t attractive to you at 4-$4.50?
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@JordanSolace All good rhetoric. You’re kinda missing one key thing though which is ¡valuation!
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@thaisoul23 Capital raise isn’t a death knell.
And they already have a lot of cash on the b/s
The stock price will follow the margin flipping.. if it happens.
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@JordanSolace LOL... what happens after Q1 when the neg ebitda widens massively and the next capital raise starts to come into focus... the bloodbath will be epic...
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@RsnblAssurance @dmottco @mymorristribe Paying down the loan balance further or equity sweeteners.
But Cerb will likely lock up for another year.
Unless they have already determined Joe can’t execute. Then they will make that abundantly clear. Def not my base
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@dmottco @ReidoFinancial Raise the count to 1b
Slap a $400m atm the next day
Woah.. it’s that easy to be cfo
Maybe that’s why Nathan is being Mr. Cheap guy investing in other shitcos
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I talked about $bess this past weekend.
The true irony would be $bess 10x’ing before Eos.
If Eos is successful & $bess can actually execute on there 2GW portfolio - the company could make up to ~$400m in revs annually
Should we rotate from pre profit Eos to pre REV bimergen? Lol
The entire $eose ecosystem is fascinating. It will either be a great success or spectacular failure
Project redbird is one of Bimergens first within their portfolio (up to 2GWs)
May be time to make some calls again.
👀
GIF
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@bert_gilfoyle I believe @x_times_1 did about a year ago. We talked about it briefly. I don't remember the details. Of course, a lot has changed.
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Your thoughts are valid. The perception of the company is very challenged.
Many risk still on the horizon.
Credibility stained.
BUT.. the bar is set very… very low.
Keep that in mind.
Any positive material at all. Or said differently, anything that isn’t clear incompetence will be perceived positively from this market.
Be well.
We have 600m in cash so we (should) still be here.. probably just a bit more depressed though 🤣
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@dmottco @philroberts @MarketNewsLLC If Eos can just make batteries that work. And genuinely do what they say… they will be wildly successful.
That claim has come into question for certain mkt participants
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@philroberts @MarketNewsLLC Good point- Eos just needs to build batteries that’s about it. Most simple business plan out there
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@bert_gilfoyle @FreemyerGreg Mkt validation with an investment of this size. But we don’t need more of that
Competition is coming & already here
The difference in chemistry is something Eos can anchor too.. not apples to apples but thornhill can’t come soon enough
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@FreemyerGreg @JordanSolace I don’t believe LG has ever made prismatic LFP batteries before. They currently make pouches. I am not sure why they can ramp faster than Tesla itself.
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$EOSE
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt
BREAKING: The U.S. Government has officially announced that @Tesla and LG Energy have signed an agreement to build a $4.3 billion lithium iron phosphate (LFP) prismatic battery cell manufacturing factory in Lansing, Michigan, with a 2027 start of production. "American-made cells will power Tesla's Megapack 3 energy storage systems produced in Houston, creating a robust domestic battery supply chain," the U.S. Department of the Interior said in a statement. Here's everything you need to know about Tesla's new Megablock, the latest in the company's industrial storage product lineup, which includes the new Megapack version 3: Megablock: • 23% faster to install with up to 40% lower construction costs • Plug and play platform (hardware, software and services) delivered as one all from Tesla. It's a pre-engineered medium-voltage block that integrates next-gen Megapack 3 • Eliminated above ground cabling between the transformer and the megapacks using new flexible busbar assembly • 91% MV round trip efficiency • 20 MWh of usable AC energy • Operates in temps of -40°C (-40°F) to 60°C (140°F) • 248 MWh per acre • 25-year life & >10,000 cycles • With Megablock, Tesla is targeting to commission 1GWh in 20 business days, equivalent to bringing power to 400,000 homes in less than month Megapack 3: • Will be manufactured in Tesla's upcoming Houston Megafactory starting in late 2026. 50 GWh annual manufacturing capacity when fully ramped. • 5 MWh of usable AC energy • Weight: 86,000 lbs • 28 foot long enclosure that can be shipped globally • Optimized for up to 8-hour applications • New drastically simplified thermal bay. Uses Model Y heat pump, but on steroids. 78% fewer connections, which minimizes failure points • Larger battery module and larger battery cell • 2.8 liter battery cell, co-engineered with Tesla's cell team • LFP battery • Operates in -40°C to 60° • Went from 24 cable connections in Megapack version 2XL, down to 3 simple busbar connections • 75% of the mass of Megapack 3 is battery cells. • A single module in it weighs as much as a Cybertruck • Tesla has enabled easier front access service, so there are no roof penetrations • Drastically simplified bussing system
QCT
Well said. The way I framed the options makes it read like a Choice of financing or credibility.
There’s absolutely more nuance to it; and I think you nailed it.
Nobody is operating under the assumption Joe is acting criminally.
On the other hand, operational incompetence coupled with the poor comms makes certain mkt participants paint with a broad brush.
And yes I’m calling it incompetence to reiterate guide with 50 days left And miss (q4) by 40%… while acknowledging this shit (mfg) is hard, revs are lumpy, and the lack of redundancy in the current operation
Personally, I gave mgmt too much credit heading into this print.
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Just to be clear. There’s no magic “confidence %” that makes guidance legal. What matters is whether management actually had a real, defensible basis for it. If Joe knew (or was reckless in ignoring) that the numbers weren’t achievable or assumptions were already breaking, that’s where he’d get into trouble.
Safe harbor only helps if the guidance was given in good faith and the risks were clearly laid out. But no court is asking “was it 80%?”. They are asking: did you genuinely believe it when you told investors?
Any lawsuits will be dismissed. Many companies miss guides. I’d choose option a if I had reasonable believe I could make plan.
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$EOSE
If your given two options as the ceo which one do you go with …
Option a:
Maintain guide-> raise $80m warrant cash
Raise $500m in equity
Remove GC risk
But lose credibility after the miss
Option b:
Preserve credibility
But likely: stock is lower, less capital raised (at worse terms), GC risk persist for longer
Ultimately if the tech actually works the choice is easy.
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@JordanSolace Yup! As would any CEO that prefers to "manage to progress, not to specific targets." 😂
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It will be very interesting to see which companies choose to report twice a year versus those that stick with quarterly reporting.
Exec Sum@exec_sum
BREAKING: The SEC is preparing a proposal that would eliminate the requirement for public companies to report earnings quarterly, instead allowing firms the option to disclose results just twice a year
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