josh

@KobeissiLetter Bro marking the bottom thanks

BREAKING: Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament provides trading advice to investors trading US markets: “Pre-market so-called ‘news’ or ‘Truth’ is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it is a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill.”

@garyblack00 Except $mu is cheaper with better margins than $nvda. When Nvda was doing 30B rev in a quarter it was 1T mu is only 400B.

Year-to-date all Mag 7 stocks have underperformed SPX. $META and $GOOGL which had been holding up well all year, have underperformed in recent weeks as investors struggle with a California jury verdict finding the companies negligent for a 20-year-old woman's mental health problems, awarding her $6 million in damages for her excessive use of their platforms as a child. The verdict found the companies negligent, stating that the design and operation of their platforms made them addictive and that they either knew or should have known their products posed a danger to children. The case has far-reaching implications, with thousands of similar cases in the pipeline and governments around the world considering measures to protect young social media users, including bans, restrictions on design features, and laws requiring platforms to protect children from harmful content. This conjures up memories of adverse tobacco verdicts in the 1990s where juries started finding tobacco companies liable for smokers’ addictions and health injuries, despite warning labels on cigarette packages disclosing tobacco’s risks since the 1960s. Where is this headed? IMO, the $6M jury verdict will get overturned on appeal (this trial was in CA state court where judges’ biases often lead to errors that get overturned at the appellate level). There is no question that the plaintiff in the case had a traumatic childhood, but there was a real dispute about whether social media was the principal cause of that trauma. Here the plaintiff testified that her mother had abused her physically and psychologically as a child. One issue may be that the judge instructed the jury to consider whether the companies’ negligence was ‘a substantial factor’ in causing the harm — not the primary factor but a substantial factor. Beyond this specific verdict, we may be headed for an outcome where $META and $GOOG place a minimum age on using their platforms that requires uploading government-issued identification. The impact on children is what juries tend to find most objectionable, and that’s an easy fix. At META’s forward P/E of 16x and GOOG’s forward P/E of 22x vs 10-15% forward 5-year Rev and EPS growth, both stocks seem very cheap.

@djvlad Society doesn’t work like that the-scientist.com/universe-25-ex…

I honestly wish religion had never existed. Imagine how far we would be as a species if humanity consistently pursued evidence-based, rational answers instead of constructing narratives around imagined deities.

@Kaizen_Investor Spent last weekend doing the same and my conclusion was theres too may stocks in that space so memory remains the safer trade

Done some research this weekend on smaller photonics plays. $SIVE $SOI $IQE $OPTX $HIMX $WOLF $VLN $QRVO My research has honestly worried me a bit here. I read lots of good things about these stocks on X but the financials don't back them up. Those companies are characterized by - stagnating/declining revenues - shrinking gross profit margins - loss making quarters - burning free cash flow I'm not an expert in the photonics supply chain but bottlenecks are often characterized by surging revenues and growing gross profit margins. These are not (yet) to be seen at these companies. A lot of people talk about these stocks because they are so volatile. Investors love putting screenshots of a +20% day on their timeline. I'm not saying you can't invest in these companies but be aware that these are moonshot investments. 1 or 2 of these companies will go to the moon, the rest will fail. If you really want to, allocate a small portion of your portfolio to these stocks. And no, I'm not calling out your favorite photonics investor. If you read their posts closely, they mention that they only allocate small portions to these small-caps.

@RedDogT3 Could be closer to a bottom if software stops bleeding

I like this playbook. Just have multiple plans in moment as levels will be zones and u must know what u can handle. I’d love $spx $spy 2%-4% lower into Tuesday to play the bounce. Oscillator went out -42 I’d love -70. I’d get to tier#2 Bos and use my swing trade account for a big bounce. Sell puts buy calls. But what I want and how it plays out aren’t always right. So multiple plans and preparation helps

@elliewong1 @pappygist Go talk to the $amc bag holders

@geejmasterflex @pappygist If you are IREN and sell a share for $35 of capital and then get a return on that capital over and above that value, is that dilution?

This has been the dumbest selloff of the year. $IREN is going back up, morons have driven it down, loudmouths have shit talked it all year on $X. I leveraged up and bought some June calls. This stupidity will end AND $IREN will come out ahead. $76 and beyond inbound.

@stevehou Looking like an idiot after he already changed it to meta

What’s stopping Zuck from spending up to $2B to buy C3.ai (current mcap $1.1B) and change the name (and the ticker) of his company from Meta to AI?

@TiffanyFong A week

is this true, boys?

@aleabitoreddit @Kaizen_Investor It’ll go to $15 first.

I saw large potential with $IREN last year. The reason I flipped bearish is because... who is funding the monetization of their GW capacity? It's existing holders getting diluted. $IREN filed a $6B ATM since they likely didn't have any other way to finance it. I would consider flipping long again after they already financed their buildout from dilution.

My thoughts on $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV and the current Neocloud market. One of them ends up as the next AWS in 5 years: My guess it’s Nebius. It's not winner takes all (DigitalOcean is there with Amazon), but there's clearly superior structures and likely winners. The downside: -> Low chance of rate cuts from Iran conflict. ->Broader market doesn't appear to want to fund the CapEx cycle. But want to reap the benefits With $IREN: We get it, 4.5GW = X revenue. But who is funding the GPUs? Whoever is buying into the $6,000,000,000 ATM right now. The winners will be whoever enters after holders get fully diluted. The reality is, they don't have enough funding to monetize their capacity through GPUs without colo models. And they didn't find other financing methods, so they went through ATMs because of a cult community that will buy into anything they sell. However, I agree it will be accretive long term. Just not as much for the retail buying in now. With $CRWV: They did everything right... $NVDA backing. Hyperscaler clients... But they financed completely wrong. Now, $1.5B+ yearly debt interest is eating Coreweave alive and cuts into FCF. Almost like credit card debt, Coreweave gets a job to pay off that debt, but eventually, the debt interest is too high that working doesn't really cover that and expansion too. If any company goes down, $CRWV is the first to go the massive debt load and interest. With $NBIS: They're doing as much as they can right... $NVDA funding $2B to fund capex. Convertible note offerings (convertible note short hedging is annoying for short term price appreciation). But this is the best way to do financing structures with much lower interest than Coreweave. They now have ~$46B+ in backlog from $META and $MSFT, two of the most profitable hyperscalers out there, without direct OpenAI linked contagion like Coreweave. And unlike others; there’s appreciation from their other companies (Clickhouse equity appreciation: avride robotaxi scale up; toloka triple digit growth) From my take: Nebius is the clear winner. However, current macro environments does not favor short term holders across the board with indexes dropping 7%. Especially so if they're buying into active ATMs. Long term, the benefits when they scale up eg. $NBIS Q4 2026 (yes, even $IREN), will be immense.

@nikitabier @teslaownersSV Why is tweet deck $40 a month

@teslaownersSV Wrong.

@DeItaone Oh really

TRUMP ON IRAN: IRAN HAS TO OPEN UP STRAIT OF HORMUZ

@PaperGainsInc Ah yes micron will trade at 1x forward pe and buy itself back

Richard Wyckoff published this blueprint in 1910 Over 100 years ago $MU is following it step-by-step RIGHT NOW UTAD - fake breakout to trap longs SOW - sign of weakness LPSY - last chance to sell The blueprint said what comes next

@BallsShort @spotgamma youre the one disagreeing with the market not me

@geejmasterflex @spotgamma This has got to be the worst take I've ever seen.

I'm quite nervous, and I spent 2 hours writing why you should be too. Consider: VIX has gone +60 twice in the last ~1.5 years. Once on a positioning debacle (Aug '24) and then again on the self-inflicted wound of April '25 tariffs. To find the previous VIX 60 you go back 5 years to Covid crash. Before that, it was 12 years and the GFC. This situation clearly can't be shoved back in the box with a tweet. GL. dashboard.spotgamma.com/foundersNotes/…

@spotgamma Hardware yes. Not software

@geejmasterflex so you are buying stocks here?

@spotgamma Front month crude still under 100 and 6 months out at 80 not exactly a lot of uncertainty there.

@geejmasterflex couldn't disagree more. Trump created tariff problems with is phone. He could then delete tariffs with his phone. Here, we can't tweet de-escalation because everyone else is now fighting.

@elonmusk @AutismCapital Why is tweetdeck $500 a year now

@AutismCapital I agree. It will be fixed.

They really have to fix the algo here. You share or view one meme about Black Snape (because hilarious) and the entire algo is 24/7 Black Snape for two days straight. The algo thinks because someone interacts with one thing they want infinite of that thing. It’s wrong. It forces people into bubbles they don’t want to be in. Sometimes people want to share a meme, and then go back to normal. Or sometimes they are sent a meme, open it up, and now the feed thinks they want more of that content. No, they were just sent a link and clicked it. It really ruins the experience. Not every detour needs to become the main path. It’s a flawed system. It’s hypersensitive and doesn’t realize just because (I.e. you saw a car wreck on the feed and were shocked) that you want infinite more car wrecks. No. Obviously your eyes are going to linger on the shocking thing, but that doesn’t mean you want to seek it out. X doesn’t discern that. Needs to be fixed. Ruins the experience. And there’s no way to reset the feed back to normal. You just have to try to interact your way back into normal somehow.

@marvel_updat3s Has he though about running for mayor of New York

Vincent D’Onofrio when asked which movie Charlie Cox made his MCU debut in as Matt Murdock: “The other pain in the ass character. Spider-Man.” (Via: youtu.be/SR0BwCZIuc4?si…)

@ggreenwald Only one country has their leadership hiding in a cave afraid of a bomb dropping on their head.

Trump: We're going to bomb your energy facilities if you don't open the Strait of Hormuz in 2 days. Iran: F off. Trump: OK, you have 5 more days. Iran: F off. Trump: Fine, we'll give you 10 days like you asked. Iran: We didn't ask for anything. F off.