Intel Arb

@LeadingReport @TicTocTick Everybody in our government is engaged in insider trading. How do you think Nancy Pelosi has a $300M net worth?

BBC alleges that the Trump admin may be engaging in insider trading.

@SecScottBessent @MoF_Qatar 13 straight Nasdaq Green Day’s not enough, need to keep pumping. I’m sure no coincidence this was sent 120 seconds before the US stock market opened for the week

On Friday, I met his excellency, Ali bin Ahmed Al Kuwari @mof_qatar to discuss ongoing cooperation between the United States and Qatar, especially during Iran’s attacks against Gulf Cooperation Council countries. I emphasized that the United States seeks to deter future attacks by Iran and to ensure that energy and broader markets are not further impacted. I also welcomed Qatar’s continued investment in the United States, specifically in relation to strengthening energy security.

@DeItaone @blondebroker1 “Positively reviewing participation…” No Iranian would ever use those words. That’s written by an American intellectual lol

SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL TO REUTERS: IRAN IS POSITIVELY REVIEWING PARTICIPATION IN PEACE TALKS WITH U.S., NO FINAL DECISION HAS BEEN MADE YET

@zerohedge Weird… Iran coincidentally reaches out to Pakistan right before the US stock market opens every week?

Market is about to open, "good" headlines begin IRANIAN OFFICIAL: IRAN IS POSITIVELY REVIEWING PARTICIPATION IN PEACE TALKS WITH US, NO FINAL DECISION HAS BEEN MADE YET POSITIVE EFFORTS ARE UNDERWAY BY PAKISTAN TO END U.S. BLOCKADE, ENSURE IRAN'S PARTICIPATION IN TALKS: RTRS

@DeItaone So basically corporations got an excuse to raise prices, consumer ate higher prices, and now those same consumers (tax payers) are going to pay them again for the same amount they already passed-though 👍 Nice job @USSupremeCourt

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO BEGIN REFUNDING $166B IN TARIFFS The U.S. government will start refunding up to $166 billion in Trump-era tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled the policy unlawful. From April 20, businesses can file claims through a new Customs system to recover duties paid under emergency powers. Courts found only Congress can impose tariffs, forcing the rollback. Over 330,000 importers across 53 million shipments may be eligible. Once approved, refunds—plus interest—should arrive within 60–90 days, though complex cases may take longer. Officials warn the process will be massive and complex, but payments will go directly to the businesses that originally paid.

@MikeZaccardi Coincidentally also when consumers and businesses were adding leverage the balance sheet

MS: We Are Likely in the Early Stages of Another Productivity Boom Productivity Growth Appears To Be Turning Higher Again

What’s your view @JoshYoung ?

I have yet to see one good explanation why Dated Brent, a ‘real’ price of crude, has dramatically fallen despite oil still not flowing through the Strait. “Pricing imminent solution” is clearly incorrect. $USO

@SquirrelMacro @pineconemacro It is amazing. 2 major reasons in my mind: 1. Ppl know a Trump tweet (whether it’s true or not) can instantly ruin p/l, that’s obvious 2. But Dated Brent was also moving on Trump announcements! Hard to be long crude when the US Gov has the ability to move paper and ‘real’ prices

@pineconemacro BZZ6 only offering a couple bucks for that and the SoH

🧐

@Marlin_Capital Tax payments

The chase is on. Money market funds just saw their largest outflow EVER. Cash is moving off the sidelines at a historic pace.

Immaculate vibes in CP today

@orrdavid Ehh, I’d imagine everybody’s is… I don’t see many professionals that are overweight or leveraged long high short interest names. In 2021, you could make an argument it made fundamental sense. This month would have just been throwing dice

The most shorted stocks are up 32% in less than 3 weeks. This is about as wild now as Sept's last year, which itself was ~70% as bad as Jan 2021 if you include the months leading up to that. My alpha is always bad when these moves are happening.

@TheStalwart @IrvingSwisher An inflationary regime is just a collection of transitory inflation shocks :)

Great title to FOMC Governor Waller's new speech

OpEx squeeze. Lowest US equity put/call in 5 years. $SPX $SPY

The trade here was short equities at the close today. The main thesis was that the rally was primarily options-driven flows and less about reality. Despite the news, still think it makes sense as a short-term trade. 13 up days in a row for /NQ - worth a quick fade. Buying puts at 3:50pm $SPY $QQQ

From latest article… x.com/intelarb/statu…

Adjusting global yields by percentiles, shows the USA is an outlier here vs. the RoW. German, Aussie, Japan, and UK 10s yield are all back at the highs and at the 99-100th percentile of the past decade. USA is down at the 85th percentile (y-axis doesn't go to zero). $TLT

Latest Macro note is up. Short equities, short bonds, long Ags, short CAD. $SPY $USO $DBA $TLT $AUDCAD x.com/intelarb/statu…

@options_insight Check out JPM’s short squeeze index on bloom (high short interest names), started to rip 4/13… guessing that aligns with gamma squeeze timing

Since last Friday spot up 3% in a straight line and fixed strike vol bid only. Doesn't smell like a market that is long gamma...