nuancerocket

this lovefrom short report is doing absolute bits.

@cptdankkk exhumed january 2025 rogan clip immediately refuted by reality.

Mark Zuckerberg says Apple's lack of innovation since the iPhone will lead to its decline "They haven't really invented anything great in a while. Steve Jobs invented the iPhone, and now they're kind of sitting on it 20 years later" "Year over year, I'm not even sure they're selling more iPhones at this point. Part of it is that each generation doesn't actually get that much better, so people are taking longer to upgrade" "They built stuff like AirPods, which are cool, but they've thoroughly hamstrung the ability for anyone else to build something that can connect to the iPhone" "I'm pretty optimistic that because they've been so off their game in terms of not really releasing many innovative things... eventually they'll get beat by someone"

shitcos to janus.

@Greenbackd not looking great for the unsullied tbh.

@nuancerocket Amen. No one gets out alive.

This chart is showing a classic late-cycle / speculative momentum setup becoming increasingly unstable. Similar markets in: * late 1999 / early 2000 momentum exhaustion * late 2021 speculative growth blowoff * mini-versions in 2018 and 2020

@Greenbackd competition demystified is black pill.

@nuancerocket What, value guys?

we are dying.

…is that a lot or a little?

@TheNarrenschiff no baggies in foxholes.

I don't blame them and it may not even mean anything, but man insiders are starting to puke the 2nd and 3rd tier semi stocks.

@BillAckman @Jason @Bremont

@Jason Check out @Bremont.

Never mind about the Rolex… had no idea buying one was like buying a Ferrari, where you have to beg, jump though hoops and then buy products you don’t want to get the one you do want! 😂 thought it would be fun to own, but would much prefer to just order something on a website (like a Tesla!) and be done with it. These retail and reseller channels make things far too time consuming Is there a nice watch I can just… order?

Chinese players YMTC & CXMT are not rational competitors. They want market share and are going public soon. It will be interesting to see how they behave. My sense is they will flood supply and build capacity rapidly. My gut tells me their IPOs *may* represent peak of cycle.

In a normal cycle, if DRAM demand rises 20%, suppliers add bits and eventually pricing normalizes. In this cycle, if HBM demand rises 20%, the effect is worse because HBM consumes disproportionate capacity so the problem trickles down to server/pc/mobile, etc.

@tolstoybb rude. every time.

degen harder.

@toptickcrypto did they legit rl the tin man this time?

bro...

Will run this through goth barista benchmark tests as soon as I can

it’s the golden age of black hat.

@WaterworldCapi1 izzy & ken:

Seems like the price of betting on the best growing assets once a theme or company is known is becoming high correlation and volatility.

@insane_analyst mark it zero.

FYI someone pinged me about Lumentum at JPM conference where "they basically said they sold all their lasers to Nvidia". $LITE makes at least 80% gross margin on lasers sold to $NVDA. My most bearish calculation is 81%. Others pay 87% gross margin or higher.