Samar Khand

This is pretty depressing. Even if the US destroys the choke points in Hormuz and also Kharg, the regime will be able to relocate its production and distribution and rebuild its missile and nuclear program. After all, it is sitting on an ocean of oil. It really appears hopeless. The only way out perhaps is for the people to rise up and so far they don’t seem willing to.

Nearly three weeks into the #IranWar, assessments range from excessive optimism about the ability to topple the Iranian regime and destroy its military capabilities to pessimistic forecasts of a prolonged war of attrition that could ultimately leave a more extreme and dangerous regime capable of rapidly rebuilding its power. Given the dynamic reality, restrictions on communication within Iran, and uncertainty regarding expected military developments in the coming weeks, a cautious assessment is required across four main areas: Iran’s internal situation, missiles, the nuclear program, and energy. Iran’s internal situation: At this stage, there is no indication that the regime is willing to compromise. Moreover, the Iranian leadership appears intent on ending the war not merely in a state of survival, but within a new regional reality that recognizes Iran’s status and its capacity to inflict significant damage on its neighbors—without a U.S. military presence and with guarantees that any end to the war will be permanent. At the same time, the regime has demonstrated adaptability to continued decapitation strikes: security forces continue to function while adjusting to Israeli attacks, and domestic repression persists, including arrests and executions. Even the recent Fire Festival (Chaharshanbeh Suri) passed without major incidents. That said, the elimination of senior figures such as Ali Larijani is not without significance. These continued decapitations complicate strategic coordination, exacerbate tensions between the political and military echelons, and create challenges for maintaining an effective chain of command. It remains unclear whether Mojtaba Khamenei can establish effective control and whether—and when—a tipping point could be reached that would further undermine the regime’s stability, which, for now, appears relatively resilient. Missiles: There is a clear effort not only to degrade launch capabilities but also production capacity to delay post-war recovery. The recent increase in launch volume suggests that the earlier decline stemmed not only from operational damage (it remains unclear how many missiles and launchers were destroyed versus temporarily disabled), but also from deliberate munitions management over time. Nuclear program: This remains a central concern. As long as Iran retains nuclear capabilities—including significant stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium—there is a real risk of renewed acceleration of its nuclear program and potentially a doctrinal shift under Mojtaba Khamenei, who is likely not bound by the concept of a nuclear threshold state or by his father’s nuclear fatwa. Energy: Finally, energy has become a key instrument of pressure for Iran, leveraging its control over the Strait of Hormuz and its influence on global oil markets. The Israeli strike on a gas field in southern Iran further demonstrated that Tehran has no intention of abandoning this leverage and may even escalate its use. However, it remains unclear how sustainable this strategy is. If the United States is willing to assume the risks associated with broader military action, an opportunity may emerge over time to reduce Iran’s ability to threaten the global energy market.

@MaitreyaBhakal Timothy Chalamet to play this guy in a biopic “A Complete Moron”.

Two minutes' silence for those who think Israel's air defences are still effective, especially now that Iran has started using its advanced hypersonic missiles.

Israel is so small that Iran can destroy all of its desalination plants and its entire power grid within just a few hours. Just imagine what will happen to the settler population then, without water and electricity. Ask yourself why Iran is not doing that.

@RushDoshi Groypers: This Indian guy Doshi took my job! I can drive an EV!, I can spell A.I.

On Tuesday, I testified before the House Homeland Security Committee on China's strides in robotics and AI. I warned that we lost solar, batteries, and EVs -- now we're at risk of losing robotics and AI. If that happens, it would irreversibly change the balance of power. Five points: 1️⃣ China aims to win the next industrial revolution. PRC leaders believe history is shaped by industrial revolutions. The first, steam power, made Britain dominant. The second and third, electrification and mass manufacturing, made America dominant. China is determined to win the fourth. 2️⃣ In robotics, China is already winning. In 2024, China installed 300,000 new industrial robots. America installed 30,000. China now has over 2 million robots in its factories — five times more than the US. A decade ago, it imported 75% of its robots. Today it makes 60% domestically. This year alone, China may spend $400 billion on industrial policy. The entire US CHIPS Act provided $50 billion across multiple years. If we fall behind here, U.S. reindustrialization becomes farfetched. 3️⃣ In AI, we're ahead — but selling off the advantage. China has more energy, more talent, and makes the edge devices. But America still leads because of chips, according to China's own AI companies. US chips are 4-5x better than China's today. We are debating whether to surrender that edge. 4️⃣ We are inviting risks of cyberespionage and catastrophic cyberattacks. PRC law requires its companies to cooperate with intelligence services and never disclose it. Today's robots carry LiDAR, microphones, and cameras — they are mobile surveillance platforms. But the bigger risk is cyberattack. We know China has compromised our power, gas, water, telecommunications, and transportation infrastructure in preparation for cyberattack. We cannot deploy robots in sensitive facilities from the very country targeting those facilities. 5️⃣ Here's what we must do. Extend ICTS rules to cover Chinese robots. Direct CISA to audit where they're deployed in critical infrastructure. Ban federal procurement of Chinese robotics and AI. Strengthen semiconductor export controls. Stop treating American AI companies with more regulatory scrutiny than Chinese ones. And build allied scale in robotics—a trading bloc with preferential terms for the members that can rival China's scale in in the sector. Thanks to @HomelandDemsIt and @HomelandGOP for the hearing on this topic, and grateful to join @MRobbinsAUVSI and colleagues from Scale and Boston Dynamics for a great discussion.

@HarmlessYardDog Which bozo thought it was a great idea to let China produce 100% of everything?

Which one of you bozos thought it was a good idea to build the entire world economy off just in time supply chains from the most unstable regions on the planet?

It’s not ignorance, it’s deliberate electioneering. However, one element of the war that might have come as a surprise,is Iran hitting its neighbours’ oil and gas installations. Hormuz yes, they’ve done it before. Will $200 oil and gas stop Trump? Why should it? Prices won’t come down soon and he will lose the midterms and be impeached. Might as well adapt and carry on.

For the love of all things holy, if you still see self-appointed "military experts," or whatever derangement syndrome X-perts claiming (whether they served in the military or not) that the U.S. military did not plan extensively for the vast range of possible scenarios in the Strait of Hormuz. STOP FOLLOWING THEM. These are not the experts/analysts you are looking for. War is politics by other means and there is plenty political happening but to claim the U.S. military did not plan is just straight dangerous ignorance.

@feelsdesperate @varadmehta Freddy Gray has gone full TDS.

Walls are closing in on Trump. It’s over.

@Cloudwatch199 Yeah, 17% fewer Muslim Brothers, will Hamas leaders in Doha eat 17% less caviar, will Joe Kent get a perm less often?

Iran’s attack has knocked out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity. This will have serious long term consequences for the world.

@Nostre_damus Qatar can fund 17% fewer Harvard professors and Tuckers. Will the Economist, owned by Qatar have to close down?

@NoahCRothman It sometimes seems like the only thing standing between Epic Fury and Victory is Trump’s temperament

When asked by Gateway Pundit, “Why are we helping Israel prosecute this war if they’re going to pursue their own objectives?” Hegseth responds with a non-answer about how the U.S. can strike targets at will and that Iran has held the global energy market hostage for decades.

@AndrewCMcCarthy @hughhewitt @SpencerGuard Why was “still” needed?

This is a penetrating analysis. Not sure I agree that the political objectives were clear from the start, and if the admin could have explained them as @SpencerGuard has, it would have more support now. But what’s done is done. Point is we’re winning, not losing.

@aravind Zeihan got many things wrong especially after Russia invaded Ukraine, and Balaji is just way overrated. Like watching two nuns fighting by throwing popcorn at each other.

This a great read. And good counter arguments to Zeihan's arguments on continued US hegemony (and the decline of China) - which are also my views.

@AadiAchint It’s really amazing how retired top Indian military officials and diplomats are so dumb. Scary too, that they were leading India for decades.

Sir, This report is being spread by Chinese Youtubers and Handles.. The Chinese have spent a lot of money in Africa especially to spread Fake claims during this conflict. There are American analysts who are on the payroll as well.. Sadly in India they are being taken at face value and being made as the source of analysis that we are seeing around. They have us stuck in the domestic politics and using Indian SM and news as a channel to spread narratives.. Hope that Helps please!

Qatar tried to play a double-game. How does a country with $250 billion GDP and 90% expat population, fund billions every year in overseas agit-prop, including media, academia, lobbyists, politicians, podcasters? Now their partners may have turned viciously on them. Did someone say “serves you right!”?

LATEST VERIFIED VISUALS: Qatar’s Interior Ministry confirmed that it is still dealing with a fire in the Ras Laffan industrial area. This area is the largest hub for gas production and export in the country.

@CynicalPublius They think it will work as an election strategy.

Why do Democrats always want America’s military to fail in its assigned missions if a Republican is POTUS? I honestly do not understand this mentality.

@MaxAbrahms Who are their “people”? Expats are nearly 90% in UAE and Qatar.

In theory, the war could have resulted in Iran’s neighbors developing better relations with it by villifying the US-Israeli intervention but what’s happened in the region instead is they’ve become really, really pissed at Iran and fearful the war will end prematurely.

@BuzzPatterson Unless Trump prematurely exits the Iran war, then Joe Kent will be all over the place taking credit.

In two weeks, nobody will remember Joe Kent.

@JPN_PMO You blew it lady, quirky charm isn’t going to cut it.

PM Takaichi: “From now, I will be leaving for Washington, D.C. in the United States. As the security environment surrounding our country becomes increasingly severe, I will confirm with President Trump the unwavering bond between Japan and the United States and further (1/2)

@MaxAbrahms Well, if they don’t take control of their own future, they are going to be left with a defanged and vengeful mullah-dom.

It still isn’t clear how Iranians are going to respond to the war. This is the biggest variable.

@BobGolen Someone born in 33 was 66 in 99.

Somebody born in ‘33 was 45 in ‘78. That's gotta be some sort of record.

@sidhant Qatar is worried that a non-mullah Iran will no longer be a threat to anyone and that it will lose its huge US military base.

West Asia War Qatari officials express worry over strikes in Iran’s South Pars field, terms it a "dangerous step"