Rush Doshi

I've watched @amanpour on TV for decades. So I was grateful for the opportunity to sit down with her for 15 minutes. Our interview aired on @CNN this weekend. We talked China policy, Trump's approach, and why this decade is the decisive decade in the competition.

@BRICbreaker And successive administrations, too. But we can still fix it if we choose.

@RushDoshi You knows who fault this is? Silicon valley VC and US multinationals.

On Tuesday, I testified before the House Homeland Security Committee on China's strides in robotics and AI. I warned that we lost solar, batteries, and EVs -- now we're at risk of losing robotics and AI. If that happens, it would irreversibly change the balance of power. Five points: 1️⃣ China aims to win the next industrial revolution. PRC leaders believe history is shaped by industrial revolutions. The first, steam power, made Britain dominant. The second and third, electrification and mass manufacturing, made America dominant. China is determined to win the fourth. 2️⃣ In robotics, China is already winning. In 2024, China installed 300,000 new industrial robots. America installed 30,000. China now has over 2 million robots in its factories — five times more than the US. A decade ago, it imported 75% of its robots. Today it makes 60% domestically. This year alone, China may spend $400 billion on industrial policy. The entire US CHIPS Act provided $50 billion across multiple years. If we fall behind here, U.S. reindustrialization becomes farfetched. 3️⃣ In AI, we're ahead — but selling off the advantage. China has more energy, more talent, and makes the edge devices. But America still leads because of chips, according to China's own AI companies. US chips are 4-5x better than China's today. We are debating whether to surrender that edge. 4️⃣ We are inviting risks of cyberespionage and catastrophic cyberattacks. PRC law requires its companies to cooperate with intelligence services and never disclose it. Today's robots carry LiDAR, microphones, and cameras — they are mobile surveillance platforms. But the bigger risk is cyberattack. We know China has compromised our power, gas, water, telecommunications, and transportation infrastructure in preparation for cyberattack. We cannot deploy robots in sensitive facilities from the very country targeting those facilities. 5️⃣ Here's what we must do. Extend ICTS rules to cover Chinese robots. Direct CISA to audit where they're deployed in critical infrastructure. Ban federal procurement of Chinese robotics and AI. Strengthen semiconductor export controls. Stop treating American AI companies with more regulatory scrutiny than Chinese ones. And build allied scale in robotics—a trading bloc with preferential terms for the members that can rival China's scale in in the sector. Thanks to @HomelandDemsIt and @HomelandGOP for the hearing on this topic, and grateful to join @MRobbinsAUVSI and colleagues from Scale and Boston Dynamics for a great discussion.

We should have jumped on industrial robots. Need a bigger CHIPS Act geared towards reindustrializing America with robots

@joshzoff Pretty interesting stuff. And good to see.

@RushDoshi Pilled? $100B is more like “tattooed on your forehead”

Is Jeff Bezos reindustrialization-pilled? One can hope.

There are no natural Ricardian advantages on the innovation frontier. The federal government needs to prioritize industrial policy for robotics and AI (and relevant supply networks). And we need to coordinate with our allies and partners in this.

@mitchpresnick Agree on this. Think more needs to be done on how to structure these partnerships. China did that work to ensure maximum benefit for itself. US needs to start too.

Rush—many timely and well-made points here. I hope they were heard. One important dimension that may be underexplored is the practical pathway for the U.S. to cease falling further behind in the robotics race. In reality, that likely requires public–private partnerships and, more controversially, selective robotics JVs with the very country viewed as a strategic competitor. That tension is uncomfortable—but structurally unavoidable. China controls robotics supply chains and component manufacturing. Not to mention the cost advantage and ecosystem density. Just ask Elon.

@McFaul Thanks, Mike! Really appreciate it!

Professor @RushDoshi outlines in detail the biggest challenge to American interests in the 21st century. Yet, instead of focusing on China, Trump has launched another war of choice in the Middle East. Good way to lose the 21st century.

Very important to listen to. Agree with the analysis of China’s intentions. But our main policy to address should be tax and other incentives for US and even MNCs to buy American robotics

@vshih2 Thanks, Victor — certainly support that!

Very thoughtful:

@isaacstonefish Really appreciate it, Isaac!

@DesmondShum Thanks, Desmond — glad you found the analysis worthwhile!

Rush is spot on with his analysis here. I desperately want America to win. Because you would not want to live in a world dominated by China. You’re reading this on X — and X is banned in China.

@warrwim Thank you!

@RushDoshi Great synopsis and all excellent points, Rush!

@CraigMSingleton Thanks, Craig! Appreciate it very much

@RushDoshi Great job, @RushDoshi.

Link to the hearing site and our written testimony here: homeland.house.gov/hearing/deepse…

@SevaUT Terrific piece

In 1991 the US had a reason to fight, in 2003 it manufactured one, in 2026 it didn’t even bother. Tracking the decay of America's unipolar moment through three Gulf conflicts. new post open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/p/…