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VA Special Election: Thousands of mail-in ballots could end up not counted if the voter doesn't 'cure' the problems in time. A summary of EPECTeam's recent analysis. epec.info/wp-content/upl…
@ErinJoyce @OwnerFJBAssInc2
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EPECTeam
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EPECTeam
@EpecTeam
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参加日 Ocak 2024
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@ProjectVirginia Portsmouth shows major statistical gap in rejecting R-leaning ballots ('unmarked' but still can 'cure') compared to D-leaning and 'unknown.' Volume of mail-ins is up 40% (!) over 2025 at around the same # of voting days. Rick Naigle's report:
epec.info/wp-content/upl…
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IMO the biggest obstacle to a "no" victory is the likelihood of cheating.
EPECTeam@EpecTeam
Latest VA Early Voting data: R-Leaning mail ballots show high probability (statistically significant) of being rejected (set as 'Unmarked' requiring 'cure') [~13.6%] than D-leaning mail ballots [~2.2%] or Unknown (~1.7%). Will they 'cure' or just vote on machine? EV ends 4/18.
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@shannonbduffy They have a chance to "cure" the ballot if it's kicked into "unmarked." But the question is do they want to or just spoil the ballot and vote on machine rather than tempt the post office delivery times. That's another scary statistic!
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Vote No ballots rejected?
Keep your eyes 👀 open!
EPECTeam@EpecTeam
@OrigenOfSpices Was working with Google's NotebookLM tool to generate a slide deck. But no question that R-leaning ballots are being rejected (put into "unmarked" status requiring a "cure) at the highest rates in Portsmouth Locality.
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@OrigenOfSpices Here's a few slides to explain, plus a link to the full deck PDF: epec.info/wp-content/upl…
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@OrigenOfSpices Data (Accepted, Rejected) per day over 25 days, also using Poisson 2-sample test (rate ratio) approx. 95% CI and p-value using large-sample normal on log-rate-ratio for processing rates, and three standard deviations on rate of rejections. Full methodology to be published Wed.
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Latest VA Early Voting data: R-Leaning mail ballots show high probability (statistically significant) of being rejected (set as 'Unmarked' requiring 'cure') [~13.6%] than D-leaning mail ballots [~2.2%] or Unknown (~1.7%). Will they 'cure' or just vote on machine? EV ends 4/18.
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@TeamZissou @cehoskinson @MichelleMaxwell Yes, our Data Analyst who is a Six Sigma expert tracked acceptance/rejection data on mail-in ballots over about 13 days of early voting then plugged into ChatGPT-5 Mini for some statistical analysis. Then we worked with Google LM for graphics on the disparity in rejection rates.
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@cehoskinson @MichelleMaxwell This is how they are calculating this (and don't ask me to explain it, lol) x.com/EpecTeam/statu…
EPECTeam@EpecTeam
@OrigenOfSpices Data (Accepted, Rejected) per day over 25 days, also using Poisson 2-sample test (rate ratio) approx. 95% CI and p-value using large-sample normal on log-rate-ratio for processing rates, and three standard deviations on rate of rejections. Full methodology to be published Wed.
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🚨🚨RED ALERT VIRGINIA!!
R-Leaning mail-in ballots in the VA gerrymander referendum vote currently showing a "high probability" of being REJECTED (13%) compared to D-Leaning ballots (only 2%).
What's going on here? @Restoring_USA @nogerryva @StopGerrymndr @EllyKayUSA
EPECTeam@EpecTeam
Latest VA Early Voting data: R-Leaning mail ballots show high probability (statistically significant) of being rejected (set as 'Unmarked' requiring 'cure') [~13.6%] than D-leaning mail ballots [~2.2%] or Unknown (~1.7%). Will they 'cure' or just vote on machine? EV ends 4/18.
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@OrigenOfSpices Was working with Google's NotebookLM tool to generate a slide deck. But no question that R-leaning ballots are being rejected (put into "unmarked" status requiring a "cure) at the highest rates in Portsmouth Locality.
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cha.house.gov/hearings?ID=B8…
April 16: Committee on House Administration will hold a full
committee hearing titled, “Oversight with Secretaries of State: List Maintenance and Eligibility
Verification.”
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EPECTeam がリツイート
NEW: A loose projection of the Virginia Redistricting Referendum early vote, based on current estimates from VPAP [dot] org and modeled district behavior from 2025, 2024, 2022, and 2021.
This is not Quantus polling and not a final result. It is simply a grounded projection based on the vote we are seeing so far by congressional district. Better than back-of-the-napkin math, but still only a rough estimate.
At the moment, this model shows 50.3% no, 48.2% yes, and 1.4% undecided. It shows a close contest, even if projected, and not identical to WaPo’s 51% yes, 47% no finding. A lot can still move, especially if heavier-turnout CDs break differently and Election Day reshapes the electorate.
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EPECTeam がリツイート
RITE and @RepTenney are demanding records from the New York State Board of Elections that will reveal the "full sweep of the state's violations" of federal election law.
As many as 3.1 million NY voters were registered with no driver's license or partial SSN.
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So true: The infrastructure to confirm citizenship quickly already exists across most every walk of American life (job, travel, interaction w government...)
Election Integrity Network@EIwatchdogs
Mythbuster #8 MYTH: “It’s logistically impossible to implement in time.” FACT: States moved rapidly to expand mail-in voting when standards loosened. Suddenly tightening standards is “impossible”? 95% of Americans already have valid photo ID. 89% can prove citizenship right now. The infrastructure exists. Acting now isn’t reckless — it’s responsible. Pass the SAVE America Act! Sign the Citizen Pledge here: saveamericaactcoalition.com/SAVEactpledge Access the Myth vs. Fact document and other resources here:saveamericaactcoalition.com/resources
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EPECTeam がリツイート
"The number of "news deserts" in Virginia more than doubled between 2023 and 2025, per Northwestern's Medill School of Journalism's ongoing State of Local News project."
axios.com/local/richmond…
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@Justdontcare757 @MSolwhite It's a concern when rules that allow groups to deliver a few ballots becomes an arms race. We see Rs waking up to this in the data. Most mail-ins are on a "permanent" abs list in VA. It must be scrutinized all the time b/c people rarely take themselves off when they move.
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@MSolwhite @EpecTeam Yep. I don’t think it matters what the count is until after Election Day when they do mail in ballot dumps in just enough numbers of only yes votes to get them over the line.
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Big Harvesting Hallmarks in VA's Mail-in Ballots
1/5 @EpecTeam analysts are tracking big one-day spikes of mail-in ballots returned to VA localities thru early voting on the redistricting question. Chart shows thousands in VBC locality w/in a day or two, beyond historical norms.
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EPECTeam がリツイート
Mythbuster #3
MYTH: “Millions of Americans don’t have documentary proof of citizenship.”
FACT: Every U.S. citizen is legally entitled to a birth certificate. Naturalized citizens receive theirs at naturalization.
Replacements are available from state vital records — typically $10–25.
The Act only requires presenting it once, at registration — not at every election.
And if these documents are still unavailable, there's an affidavit option that can be used.
The SAVE America Act adds the checkpoint the law has always been missing.
Pass the SAVE America Act!
Sign the Citizen Pledge here: saveamericaactcoalition.com/SAVEactpledge
Access the Myth vs. Fact document and other resources here:saveamericaactcoalition.com/resources
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5/5: @EPECTeam is tracking whether officials are maintaining orderly processing as mail-ins are dropped by thousands daily in a rushed 4/21 Special Election in VA. (Early vote ends 4/18). See more turnout analysis & sign up for our newsletter: epec.substack.com/p/mail-ins-hit… @ErinJoyce
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