


GD Thirumalavasan
3.7K posts

@GD_FCEPL
Frontier Champion Enterprises Private Limited (FCEPL), [email protected], Phone & Whatsapp +91 99529 14510




Outstanding discussion with @neelkanthmishra & Sajjid Chinoy. The macro panel on the #CNBCTV18 Townhall. "If it is only higher energy prices, it will look like 2022 Ukraine inflation shock. BUT actual fuel shortage will lead to a 2020 kind of crisis!" "Procure energy like your life depends on it" "If the war doesn't end by the 15th of April - we will see a severe global recession" Wach -> youtube.com/watch?v=UXYP4F… Sajjid Chinoy, JPM -> Real big concern is actual availability of fuel -> Fuel shortages will lead to industrial shutdowns -> Shutdowns & labour going back very hard to reverse -> If situation gets similar to Covid is more worrisome -> Every $10 oil shock is 0.4-0.5% is negative terms of trade shock, how it translates to growth depends on who absorbs the shock - govt or pvt sector -> India has enough reserves for next 2-3 years -> Extraordinary measures will send a negative signal -> Govt should gradually raise fuel retail prices, so that households adjust to new environment Neelkanth Mishra, Axis Bank -> Already at a stage where 2nd & 3rd order effects are starting to show up -> Financial market stress will force everyone to stop fighting -> Not worried about of capital flows, RBI has enough reserves -> Don't think the RBI needs to hike interest rates -> Rupee is 3 standard deviations weaker, don't think it warrants to weaken anymore -> I was at 7.5% real GDP growth before Iran war began, if this lasts 1 year - hit will be 1.5-2% #Nifty #BankNifty #Trump #IranWar @latha_venkatesh @ShereenBhan @CNBCTV18News @nimeshscnbc








S. Thyagarajan, veteran sports correspondent and doyen of hockey writing, who worked with The Hindu for many decades, passed away.




















