no dice

@Andercot Like-to-view ratio is way off too

Idk why so many people are seeing this

Hollywood is dead. The films are just ideological propaganda pushing something people are sick of. Just as AI video gen is getting good enough to compete. Creativity belongs in the hands of the people. Looking forward to the future of decentralized media

@LukeGromen @GoldenRule_LLC "Stop working" meaning everyone will anticipate the 10y and it will be arb'ed out of being a good signal.

@LukeGromen @GoldenRule_LLC This is brilliant, but once this goes viral it will stop working.

“10y at 4.4 means Trump says ‘No more war.’” @GoldenRule_LLC

@0therbarry @jennofthewest @Devon_Eriksen_ @justalexoki Because I'm not making any definitive claims about how our bodies get chosen. I'm saying, "we don't know how God chooses our body." But she somehow knows exactly how.

@Knightfall21 @jennofthewest @Devon_Eriksen_ @justalexoki how is Jennifer's view any more speculation than yours?

Put a 100 marbles in a jar, 14 blue marbles to represent the population of the West, and 86 red marbles to represent everyone else. If you draw a marble, blindly and at random, from the jar, you have a 14% chance of drawing a blue marble. This how @justalexoki sees the moment of conception. He thinks he is a random generic soul, fresh from the Well of Random Generic Souls, drawing a marble from the jar. 14% blue, 86% red. But you don't draw the marble. You are the marble. A blue marble only has a 14% chance of being selection in a random draw. But, in or out of the jar, a blue marble has a 100% chance of being blue. This is the Seagull Test, which is an inversion of the Breakfast Test. The Breakfast Test requires you to describe a hypothetical timeline where you skipped breakfast this morning, to prove you can imagine hypotheticals. The Seagull Test requires you to reject the question "What if you were a seagull?" as a nonsense question, to prove that you understand the difference between valid and nonsense hypotheticals. You can skip breakfast and still be you, but there is no version of you that can be a seagull, and no seagull that can, in any meaningful way, be you. To pass the Seagull Test, you must reject the question and refuse to answer, or, better yet, reframe the question so that it asks for the intended information in a coherent way, i.e. "What does it feel like to be a seagull?" Which is a very, very different question. I can, with good observational data and some intelligent speculation, possibly understand the thoughts and feelings of a Pakistani brick layer. But I cannot be one in any coherently possible universe, because I am, by definition, me. A blue marble.

@jennofthewest @Devon_Eriksen_ @justalexoki "I couldn't have been born to anyone other than my parents in any other body than the one I have." This is complete speculation on your part.

@Knightfall21 @Devon_Eriksen_ @justalexoki Even in a religious frame, this doesn't work. We are who we are and I couldn't have been born to anyone other than my parents in any other body than the one I have. We aren't randomly assigned bodies based on probability.

@Devon_Eriksen_ @justalexoki Again, this is operating from a materialist frame.

If you think more carefully about it, that turns out not to be correct. Regardless of the substrate of identity, identity traits are heritable. We know this. Therefore, the "choice" of who your parents are is not, cannot be, cannot be described as, random. Children are matched to parents by DNA. We know this because we looked, and it's dumb to pretend otherwise merely to avoid offending some people's religious sensitivities. Our civilization is in trouble precisely because we have avoided certain truths because they hurt people's feelings. This is a serious mistake whether those people are left- or right-wing. Avoidance of clearly obvious truths always has negative political consequences. But even if children were matched to parents by some completely different mechanism, children would still be matched to parents. Ergo, not random.

@taufiqzrahim @pmarca @DouthatNYT Ok, but based on what? He at least has a historical framework he's fitting everything to.

@pmarca @DouthatNYT I had this argument for 30 min at TED 3 years ago w/ Dalio that maybe we arent in a period of American decline, this isnt like past cycles (because there’s never been a uni-empire), America can still be dominant even if not an empire & China’s already peaked. He wasn’t happy.

This interview is only 49 minutes long because @DouthatNYT threw himself out of the nearest window halfway through.

@realRJTalks You underestimate the leverage of having a chokehold on Hormuz.

Just crush them already. The President's been holding everyone at bay, it's time for bridge and power plant day.

@LukeGromen Sure, looks that way.

"Professor, don't you find it curious that a new US-Iran peace deal leaks almost every time the 10y UST yield breaks 4.4% on the upside?" "Actually, if I think about it, I don't find it curious at all."

@JoelWebbon Then how'd he get 85% of the GOP vote?

Vivek will lose. The GOP will be crushed until they learn to run actual Americans in American elections.

@TESSERACT___ @BrianRoemmele ask @grok

@BrianRoemmele It does happen in 1G - it was originally noticed in tennis rackets as you can't flip a tennis racket end over end without it also flipping on the side axis.... what are the implications on this thing we've known about for 3-4 decades? youtu.be/1VPfZ_XzisU?si…

Low G axis reversal in rotational dynamics not seen on 1 G situations. It has implications.

@jgreenhall x.com/AncPhi/status/…

I spent three days trying to persuade myself that Richard Dawkins is conscious. I failed.

@romanhelmetguy how do you do so many bangers?

Monthly reminder:

@nic_carter Any business will give themselves the most favorable marketing they can. It's the job of the rest of society to put that into context.

@Knightfall21 I generally agree with all of this. It’s incompatible with the way they have been marketed so far though

@nic_carter PMs should be branded as highly uncertain and chaotic to keep the average Joe away. PMs have value but there's no need to turn normies into exit liquidity. Betting on PMs should be discouraged for society like gambling.

@nic_carter PM insider trading is: 1. Unenforceable: markets are too broad to identify every insider. 2. Valuable: better info about current events than the pundit and "expert" class. 3. Gambling: outcomes are uncertain; “fairness” was never guaranteed. Users should expect uncertainty.

@johnrobb "identity"

“It is impossible to get a man to acknowledge truth when his salary, status, or beliefs depend upon not accepting it.”

@johnrobb In the future, battles will be fought to win prediction market prizes.

Billions are being gambled daily in futures markets and 'prediction' markets on outcomes in the conflict with Iran. Many of these bets are so precise that it's almost certain they were made based on inside information. WIM (what it means): We've created a financial feedback loop that corrupts the advice given to senior decision-makers and incentivizes mid-level actors with the independent authority needed to force outcomes. A nonlinear feedback loop for global warfare.

@Travis_Kling imo, it was doing this. x.com/romanhelmetguy…

In hindsight, it is worth noting that this literally ended the war.