LazCap

@CRUDEOIL231 @a_mccauley Stupid question - why‘s paper so „contained“ then ?

I feel like the oil market has already crossed the point of no return, regardless of how this war plays out. At first this wave just swallowed up everything East of Suez. We saw force majeures popping up all over Asia and premiums going through the roof. But now the Atlantic wall has officially crumbled. Only oil nerds like us are checking this stuff lately, but seriously—just look at the North Sea Platts window and the USGC diffs. This is nowhere near normal. I know some ppl are getting all hyped up every time a single Handy tanker or LPG carrier squeaks through Hormuz, even claiming there’s a secret fleet of tankers slipping through. I highly doubt it. If supply was actually fine, Atlantic physical diffs wouldn't be screaming like this. These numbers only happen when you're hitting a massive supply shock. Like some of smart guys have noted, once you pass a certain threshold, it doesn't even matter if Hormuz reopens—the logistical bottlenecks will make it impossible to absorb the shock anytime soon. I’m pretty sure we’ve already crossed that line. #oott #iran

@Menckenist @PrjOwnTime Agree with your logic. Just followed you so should be able to DM now.

@Laz_Cap @PrjOwnTime Can say that "polyester" clothes are about to take a huge hit. So that is interesting for cotton. But I am all about concentrating for essentials. I try to own thermal coal, not coking. Wheat, not corn. Oil, not copper. Essentials>luxury/capex

Why’s everyone on here obsessing about oil when the inevitable trade is long ags ?

@Menckenist @PrjOwnTime Interesting. Any view on the others ?

@Laz_Cap @PrjOwnTime Wheat is top tier here... it is poverty food of the world, along with rice Corn plantings go way down as its most nitrogen heavy. But its also a luxury product, its fed to make meat, heavy switching will come... beef to chicken, then to rice and beans. Wheat is king, soy a no no

@RickHol34475697 @allcapallstrat @PrjOwnTime Yes

@Laz_Cap @allcapallstrat @PrjOwnTime How do you get long cotton? Just futures?

@lockedlimit You think ags trade is over already ?

when something is obvious, you are probably too late to the game... @Laz_Cap

@puckdunk Mainly been buying futures and futures options. Think there are some ETFs/ETPs that hold futures for most of them.

@Laz_Cap what equity/etf product is suitable for this trade? already own COW and MOO

@allcapallstrat @PrjOwnTime Probably fair counter. Others will know better.

@Laz_Cap @PrjOwnTime What is the seasonality here? Can't one make a case that farmers have already ordered/price-secured urea and spring farmers in northern hemisphere is ok? More difficulty later?

@StephenE38082 I’ve focused on the ags themselves so far but should work too.

@Laz_Cap Including potash, right?

@orrdavid Wasn’t that Hugh Hendry before he went bananas

If you have an investing thesis that is wrong 9/10 times, but you're the only person in the world with this idea, you have a wonderful thesis. 9/10 times nothing happens and you win or lose according to regular market variance. 1/10 times you win huge. If you post this idea people will mock you. And you will "look stupid" most of the time. But you kill the market long term.

Hormuz cascade Oil/tankers first order Fertilizer/chems second order Ags third order

@PrjOwnTime Corn/Wheat/Cotton/Rice - which are urea intensive. Also like sugar.

@Laz_Cap Which ags?

@orrdavid Playing devils advocate: Egypt didn’t build it but took it by force. Also, in today’s world - doesn’t everyone who‘s in a position to do so try and charge for this sort of stuff? Seems logical from Iran’s point of view.

@Laz_Cap That was man made infrastructure, of course they should charge for it.

@orrdavid Egypt gets paid for ships transitioning the Suez Canal.

I keep seeing posts about Iran charing a Hormuz toll long term. It just doesn't make sense. Countries don't get to randomly charge tolls like that. And Iran won't be able to just because they are losing in a war, and have no other options. It can only work short term.

@Fityeth It’s actually extremely effective altruism Generated $70b of equity value for society and can’t benefit from it personally

@melasdas1 Depending on your time horizon - definitely makes sense

@Laz_Cap Thanks bro. I keep buying $RCO at these levels. I think energy and chemicals are going to have a great run but I will be reducing exposure once they approach to my price target.

Add $RCO - Remy Cointreau to the list Looks like bottom's in

@melasdas1 Yes but post-conflict I think energy + chems are supercharged. Don’t think this one is running away anytime soon. Meaning incremental $ I allocate to the spaces mentioned while being a bit more patient with this one.

@Laz_Cap Are you still bullish on $RCO? I keep buying at this levels. Mkcap below inventary cost production

I don’t want to watch the McDonald’s CEO eat a burger. I want to watch Satya use Copilot

@CRUDEOIL231 That PA or work PnL ?

I've taken profit on my naked Apr Brent longs and rolled them over to May. I'm curious to see how this story plays out myself.

@rev_cap @CapitalValor Call me stupid but my bull case is that I can’t come up with one

How I've generated 38.5% post-tax IRR since 2020 Backing big themes with deep conviction. 2020 - 2023 => Energy + travel 2022 - 2026 => Precious metals miners Now on the hunt for next theme... Dry spell at the moment. No real conviction for a new asymmetric inflection.