Manta

@dampedspring The company should be selling at the “dirty” price, ie from 99.05 on ex-div, rising every day in the middle of the ex-div dates, approaching 100, not exactly at 100 at all times That’ll smooth out flows and prevent the asymmetric dynamics around ex-div date

So some open and unbiased comments on $STRC Today was the ex dividend date and the stock all else equal "should" have fallen to 99.05 and it didn't. What I think happened is In the last week or so as the company was willing to sell infinite amount at 100. Some normal demand offset supply. Normal in that it was broad based and long term demand. The thing is appealing. However a very large group of dividend capture traders also bought over the last week at 100. The combination of normal buyers and dividend capture buyers allowed MSTR who was likely the ONLY seller to sell 25MN shares on Monday and Tuesday. Raising 2.5BN. Today the dividend capture sellers were the only seller. Presumably they took the handsome profit of the 95c dividend - 70 to 50 cents of trading losses Are they done selling? Probably not. But they sold a lot The buyers were likely the same "normal" demand. Perhaps this is mean but they "dumbly" paid a higher dirty price today than when buying at 100 yesterday. BUT they are not likely so "Dumb" as every purchase today is likely to trade at par by a month from now. It's very likely that the "dumb" buyers mistook the price drop as a bargain and missed the dividend going ex today. But again they will probably not regret buying. The path forward will likely be a steady move back to 100 as the company doesn't sell a share and the only supply is from greedy patient dividend capture buyers. Then sometime in late April early May the company will cap the price at 100 and as the 95c May dividend builds not only will the normal buyers buy but the dividend capture guys will buy too! These guys buy in the last few days. But they buy a lot. The whole thing gets crowded and unravels when the normal buyers get familiar with the ex div price drop and don't bid it up above 99.05 on the ex date AND/OR the dividend capture guys get over their skies leveraged long and press the price below 99.05 and take a loss on leverage. If the company wanted to punish the dividend capture scum at any time they could also change their selling and sell below 100 on the ex date and match normal demand with their supply. But so far they are willing to give the dividend capture guys a taste of profits.

$LIT starting to see some real momentum in fundamentals

Looool “Record day dynamics are interesting” Brother what do you mean “interesting”, I thought you knew how this shit works, you’re the CEO

@AviFelman Wait till you hear what happened to ETHZilla

@MantaRayCapital Oh lord

A bankrupt shoes company just pivoted to AI and is up 76%, you’re just not trying hard enough

@firstc0in Everything is neobank

Is the terminal state of any app that owns a user’s attention becoming a full-suite neobank?

Kevin Warsh got rekt in 30+ crypto projects and youre bullish He’s as disillusioned as they come

1 Billion American dollars of $STRC trading volume and it’s not even pre-ex-dividend day yet

Alright how do we test to NOT hire coached kids?

@WazzCrypto LOL sir don’t blame my guy Walter for Ctrl+C Ctrl-V’ing the bloomberg headline too slow

LMFAO

Trump paid group got the news first again

@dampedspring the price of not getting a stupid Saylor tweet is only $1000

Whos this legend that market bought $1.2m of STRC just now 10 cents thru the offer, stopping Saylor claiming a penny of volatility and infinite Sharpe?

@saylor @Strategy Time to fire up the Sharpe ratio calculator

One penny of volatility. Closed at par. $STRC

@shortsqueeznews @OHWallStreet BREAKING: this headline is more than a day old buddy

BREAKING: Citrini Research, the same firm behind the doomsday Substack post, sent an anonymous analyst to 'monitor the situation' at the Strait of Hormuz. Citrini reportedly sent the analyst to the warzone with $15k in cash, Zyn pouches, and Cuban cigars.

Holy mental gymnastics required to be bullish on $SOL Lmao @defidevcorp

Don’t need to outswim the shark, just the buddy you’re scuba diving with

Citrini Analyst #4 trying to memorize the difference between the Russian “dobriy dyen’ ” and Ukranian “dobri den”

@AdamOnFinance @adamscochran Adam, are the overly priced in rate cuts in the room with us right now?

With the current expectations, prices don’t return to what they were pre-war. There is a world where war happens, and there is more traffic from the strait, but it’s MORE expensive due to toll, increased insurance and lower supply. Markets likely: * Sell off on boots on the ground * Rally on Strait traffic with optimism * Then grind down as actual margin compression and inflationary pressures set it Oil: * Spikes to a high on boots * Quickly recovers as traffic opens up * Creeps up as lower volume and higher fees settle in That’s a world of sustained $80+ barrels of oil. It means: * Tech, AI and pharma are probably a buy on any initial dips, if not exposed to energy sensitive sectors. * Energy sensitive sectors are a short after initial rally -Airlines -Shipping freight companies -Logistics & delivery -Petrochemical companies/manufactures of plastic -Plastic heavy consumer products (wish Tupperware was still around to short) -Heavy weight shipping goods (paper products, furniture, etc) -Bottled goods/CPG heavy on plastic packaging * Rate sensitive businesses are a short: -Anything with leveraged debt such as some telecom or healthcare -REITs with short term debt -Homebuilders * Rate benefactors could be a long if reasonable P/E as we’ve overly priced in rate cuts that may not materialize * Aerospace & defence is (sadly) a long as this sustains and large repair bills of multiyear projects in the Gulf * Gulf heavy luxury brands, tourism, and real estate are a high risk long, even if they don’t reach prior highs, boots on the ground focuses conflict into Iran, lowering the regional risk slightly * Gold likely a long, after the heavy state selling it likely continues accumulation in an uncertain world * EU defence and Canadian defence are a strong long, as NATO uncertainty continues and they seek US independence Overall the TL;DR: * This market will chop both ways on fear and optimism before grinding towards something that reflects the reality. * That reality is an increased long term cost, but that cost is materially lower than current levels. * Buyers positioned for the long term, can buy strong fwd P/Es here but MUST expect volatility.