MovieTime

scraping tiktok virality to frontrun political prediction markets.

@business 🤯

Kalshi has raised more than $1 billion at a valuation of $22 billion in a new financing round, according to a person familiar with the situation bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@PredictParity @trylimitless Will be fixed in the future

@trylimitless Interns fault 😔

Prediction Market volume by category (Feb 16 - Mar 15) Total Notional Volume $19.18b 1. Sports 53.2% 2. Crypto 19.9% 3. Politics 16.1% 4. Other 5.3% 5. Culture 1.7% 6. Business 1.6% 7. Economy 1.1% 8. Weather 0.8% 9. Tech 0.3%

@yellowpantherx @PolymarketTrade @trylimitless @predictdotfun @Kalshi @opinionlabsxyz @MyriadMarkets gm

Prediction markets will become a norm in a few years time. Polymarket. Kalshi. Predict Fun. Limitless. Myriad. Opinions. No matter the platform. We’re still very early and I want to start a closed group for active people. Who wants in? 🤝

some questions on our methodology. "93% accurate" means that prediction matched the actual outcome 93% of the time So a market trading at 70¢ that resolves YES = correct. A market trading at 70¢ that resolves NO = incorrect. It's the simplest possible accuracy measure. It doesn't capture how confident the market was (that's what Brier score does), just whether it was pointing in the right direction.

Prediction Market Accuracy By Category 181,333 resolved markets across Kalshi & Polymarket. We compared the differences in accuracy over time. Findings: -Weather markets on Kalshi are 81.7% accurate 1 day out, but in the final 4 hours it jumps to 96.8% accuracy right before resolution. -Entertainment is the most consistent category across both platforms -Politics has the biggest cross platform gap

@DOLAK1NG @poopmandefi @stacy_muur @Polymarket @PredictParity Built by winners for winners to win more. Your edge on prediction markets. wanna try it?

@poopmandefi @stacy_muur @Polymarket @PredictParity Hey Poopman, what is @PredictParity all about?

14/20 most profitable traders on @Polymarket are bots. The team that builds a proper agentic infrastructure layer for prediction markets will easily be a billion-dollar project.

@fomomofosol Insane.

JFC

@datadashboards @Dune @Kalshi Good correction will note that in the future

As one of the prediction market data guys, I thought I'd drop some additional context: @Kalshi's number whilst outlandish is likely not far off the mark. If you apply Kalshi's documented fee structure to their exposed taker trades you get to ~$118M. The flat 1% fee assumption the author made is likely even more accurate if you believe most of Kalshi's flow comes through @RobinhoodApp - on Robinhood you can only place taker orders, with a flat $0.01 fee per contract routed to Kalshi. At that structure, 1% of notional is the right approximation. Kalshi's 30-day notional: $11,004,380,330. There is some under-representation in onchain prediction market fees too. Most people track prediction market fees by only looking at dollar/stablecoin fees, when nearly all onchain PMs also collect fees denominated in shares. If I'm not mistaken, most of this data comes from @DefiLlama, who currently measure fees this way. For liquid venues, share fees can be valued at the time of trade. There will be some discrepancy given tokens resolve to either 0 or 1, but imo it's a more accurate picture than excluding them entirely. Many prediction markets will also merge opposing shares to redeem collateral before resolution, so you can expect venues like @Polymarket, @predictdotfun and @trylimitless to show higher actual fees once you account for this. Predict is running ~40% higher. Polymarket closer to ~80%. Finally, @opinionlabsxyz launched a 50% maker rebate program 3 days ago, meaning a significant portion of daily USDT fees is now being routed back to users. Current dashboards don't fully reflect this yet - minor discrepancy for now, but worth flagging.

@shawmakesmagic @BurwickLaw @inversebrah

I deleted it because I had a better banger for it. "Inappropriate" You are defaming us in public. You'll be hearing from my lawyers. You are amoral people who attack founders of projects. Did you know that I had 0% of supply until it was donated to me? Llke what are you even doing? Suck my dick.

Number of dollars recovered for victims by Burwick Law: $0 Thanks for playing, losers This is why I never promise utility for coins, because I am not retarded

@Gino_BetOpenly gm gino

Insanity! Absolute madness. 📈

Prediction markets are onboarding *273,908+ new users every month The retention is what's interesting 50.2% stay more than 1 month 30% stay more than 3 months

@MickBransfield @dan_bernstein_ x.com/PredictParity/…

@dan_bernstein_ There's been detailed analysis that shows a large percentage of polymarket volume is wash trading in anticipation of an airdrop. I don't remember where off the top of my head (it's definitely on my timeline) but you should be able to find it easily online

This can’t be true. Brian Armstrong said prediction markets help the average American get ahead.

@MickBransfield Data doesn’t lie

This is wallets (not traders) but its good to see hard data.

@traderprad @perplexity_ai @dnlkwk @jeffgrimes9 @TrendSpider @AskPerplexity Modern day magic

Prad: "Oh that's a cool view, let me task @perplexity_ai Computer to create this with live data and an interactive dashboard" Result:

@hamptonism kalshi?

I think I’ll be in New York soon for some tech conferences .

@MickBransfield great db of information.

We've hit 900 prediction markets. 1) This is resembling 2010 when everyone was building a "Social Network for X" because Facebook was successful, completely ignoring the network effect. 2) The growth in apps & tools (for Kalshi & Polymarket) deserves more attention.

@j0hnwang gm John

Got a few extra invites for Kalshi Conference end of this month in NYC prioritizing MMs, traders, and institutions. DM me

@CarOnPolymarket crushing, well done.

I just hit $1,000,000 PNL on Polymarket! It all started with a $500 deposit 2 years ago Huge milestone. 2M is next poly.market/user/Car

@quantymacro few understand

absolutely amazing thing happening on the everything app

@0x_ultra love this

@notthreadguy The definition of ignorance is bliss.

i’ve been studying geopolitics for three days now and its not looking great