Predict0r

This market is bundling three headline fantasies into one trade! Market: Nothing Ever Happens: Obama It resolves to Something if any one of these happens by Dec. 31, 2026 - Obama is federally charged - Obama is arrested - Obama or Michelle Obama announce an intention to divorce Otherwise, it resolves to Nothing Why the rules matter: this is not a vague headline market. It needs a qualifying event. "Federally charged" means an actual formal federal criminal charge. "Arrested" is broader than people think, but still requires a real qualifying detention/book/process event. Divorce does not require the divorce to be finalized. A public announcement of intent is enough. So the market is really a bundle of three separate risk buckets, and they are not equally likely. What about options: 1) Federal charges This is the most extreme legal path. Not rumors, not political rhetoric, not investigations around other officials. The market needs an actual federal charge against Obama himself. That is a very high bar. 2) Arrested Also a very high bar. Yes, the rule is broad, but in practice this almost certainly requires an extraordinary legal escalation. It is not an easy or casual path to resolution. 3) Divorce announcement This is the only leg that materially lowers the threshold for Something. It does not require a finalized divorce, only an announcement of intent. That makes it the main source of risk. But even here, the market still needs a clear, qualifying public statement, not gossip, not social media speculation, not rumor cycles. Most likely choice: Nothing That is still the cleanest side here, and I think it is the correct one by a wide margin. Two of the three triggers require an extreme legal outcome. Not controversy, not investigation, not headline pressure. Actual charge/arrest events. The third trigger is easier, but still not so real. The divorce clause matters, but it is being overweighted if traders treat every rumor as live probability. In April 2025, Michelle Obama directly brushed off the divorce rumors and explained that they stemmed from the fact that she was simply making decisions for herself; by July 2025, the Obamas were already joking publicly about those rumors together, and Michelle said there had never been a moment when she had thought about "quitting" the marriage. The structure favors overpricing Something. Headline volatility is not the same as resolution risk. Summary: This market looks broader than it is. Most likely outcome is Nothing for 82c and get 18% with low risk for 9 month sounds good

@GrizMeta With help of BTC)

Do you invest into Gold?

A portion of the commissions will go toward rewards for traders who provide liquidity. This will definitely make trading orderbook more balanced and deeper. Polymarket has now begun acquiring and integrating with DeFi projects; we'll soon see how they adapt this to generate additional income. It would be nice to hold a position long-term and be able to use it as collateral.

🚨People don’t understand what Polymarket just did... it just put fees on every single market - 1H, 4H, daily, weekly first it kills wash traders.. arb traders.. and the guys farming illiquid books.. then it starts killing normal traders too.. if you keep averaging in with small entries - you lose way more now.. every extra click starts costing you, every extra add starts bleeding you... so now you either size cleaner, or you pay for every little adjustment and while all that happens.. 20% goes back to makers... the rest just feeds Polymarket’s machine. by my math.. they can make up to $2m a day just from fees Polymarket stopped being a comfy prediction platform... now it’s built to pull money out of every kind of flow this changes who survives in Polymaret

I subscribe to every word

@DeFiMidas I hope they make right decision and avoid involving in war!

🚨BREAKING: SAUDI ARABIA AND UAE ARE TAKING STEPS TOWARD JOINING THE WAR AGAINST IRAN BEARISH FOR MARKETS

@sama AI is already becoming an integral part of our daily lives, at least for me. I always dreamed of mastering programming, but now I'm more focused on building the logic of my programs and don't worry about syntax.

AI will help discover new science, such as cures for diseases, which is perhaps the most important way to increase quality of life long-term. AI will also present new threats to society that we have to address. No company can sufficiently mitigate these on their own; we will need a society-wide response to things like novel bio threats, a massive and fast change to the economy, extremely capable models causing complex emergent effects across society, and more. These are the areas the OpenAI Foundation will initially focus on, and in my opinion are some of the most important ones for us to get right. The Foundation will spend at least $1 billion over the next year. @woj_zaremba, co-founder of OpenAI, will transition to Head of AI Resilience. I believe that shifting how the world thinks about safety to include a Resilience-style approach is critical, and I am extremely grateful to Wojciech for taking on this role. Wojciech has been my cofounder for the last decade; anyone who knows him will understand what I mean when I say he is one of a kind. He has a lot of ideas about how we build a new kind of AI safety. @JacobTref is joining as Head of Life Sciences and Curing Diseases. @annaadeola, our VP of Global Impact, will transition to Head of AI for Civil Society and Philanthropy. @robert_kaiden is joining as Chief Financial Officer. @jeffarnold is joining as Director of Operations.

@Cointelegraph Wow. It's cool that ETH Foundation looks in future so positive. ETH will have huge success!

🚨 NEW: Ethereum Foundation launches post quantum security platform outlining roadmap and research progress.

@CollinRugg I hope they don't decide to conduct training exercises with real robberies and thefts.

NEW: The LAPD is setting up drivers by having someone walk across the street in an "unmarked crosswalk" so they can then give tickets to people who don't stop. "Recently, LAPD Van Nuys division conducted a Pedestrian Enforcement Taskforce," they shared online. The LAPD says the trap was made to "promote education" after they've "had a string of accidents that have resulted in fatal or severe injuries related to pedestrians."

@CoinMarketCap No yield= no interest for team to development. Probability of scam increasing

LATEST: 📉 Shares of USDC issuer Circle fell over 18% today following a new draft of the CLARITY Act that could heavily limit the ability for stablecoins to earn yield.

@coinbureau I think the initial negotiations will involve completely unacceptable conditions from both sides, which will serve as a starting point. It will be interesting to see the comments from both sides after the third round of negotiations, to begin with.

🔥U.S.–IRAN NEGOTIATIONS CONFIRMED A senior Iranian source says there has been outreach between Washington and Tehran, signaling possible back-channel talks as tensions remain elevated.

@0xd1namit Do you think he use bots for increasing number of views for needed range?

I analyzed 45 MrBeast videos and found 1 pattern, you’ll be surprised I went through all the MrBeast view markets on Polymarket, and turns out there’s a clear pattern Here’s what I found: If an outcome is above 60–70% and there are 5–6 hours left before the market resolves, it wins literally every time Most of the time, the most likely outcome is known much earlier and it always ends up winning In MrBeast markets, there are basically no pivots once the probability is above certain levels I’m actually thinking about running a public experiment. I’ll try to hit a 100% win rate, but I won’t buy outcomes above 95% What do you think?

@PolymarketMoney Good one Jim. Seems like he hedging his forecasts through Polymarket on finance markets!

BREAKING: Jim Cramer is bullish on Microsoft. Microsoft's market cap is down $73.7B today.

@fintechfrank As far as i understand this falling connected with Clarity Act current preliminary editing. About stablecoin points

Circle getting whacked on news Tether will audit reserves with Big Four firm

@PolymarketMoney They need to add high-quality lawyer and accountant. And for some kind of businesses only CEO needed!

$AAPL announced Apple Business, a new all-in-one platform designed to help companies manage devices, equip teams with essential apps and tools and access expert support. The platform is aimed at helping businesses run more efficiently, securely and at greater scale.

@BitcoinPulseX But we should research how to earn on this! Infrastructure projects? Ondo?

💥 BULLISH BlackRock CEO Larry Fink SAYS TOKENIZATION TODAY IS LIKE THE INTERNET IN 1996 WE’RE EARLY… AND THE GOLDEN ERA IS JUST GETTING STARTED 🚀

@Cointelegraph The spring is already so tense that there should be a 2x shot in a week!

🔥 JUST IN: Wallets holding 100–100K $ETH accumulated 756,950 $ETH in the past two days, according to Santiment.

Grats! Nice done💪💪💪

@CarOnPolymarket with an imaginary Iranian delegation?

Now tell them you had good talks with Iran

@Polymarket Well, it's just the well-known FEMA teleport. Nothing new)))

JUST IN: It's been revealed that a top FEMA official claimed he was involuntarily teleported to a Waffle House.

@bitcoinlfgo It's so typical)) macro and geo situation becomes more and more sad every day! But liquidity injections put markets up whatever))

JUST IN 🇺🇸 OVER $900 BILLION ADDED TO THE US STOCK MARKET AT OPEN MASSIVE LIQUIDITY ENTERING MARKETS 🚀