Prediction Buddy

147 posts

Prediction Buddy

Prediction Buddy

@PredictionBuddy

prediction market alpha

参加日 Temmuz 2024
36 フォロー中87 フォロワー
Prediction Buddy
Prediction Buddy@PredictionBuddy·
I'm calling my shot here, I think I go 11/11 on this Turning Point speech. I'm slowly becoming a machine that turns water and calories into predicting Trump's words. kalshi.com/markets/kxtrum…
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Prediction Buddy
Prediction Buddy@PredictionBuddy·
8 for 8 LETS GOOOO. slowly working my kalshi port back up.
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Prediction Buddy
Prediction Buddy@PredictionBuddy·
@whenwillitendd0 lol the only stuff that was left was 1000 shares at 90... and to be fair I was doubting myself. I thought no way I'm the only one who just saw that.
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Prediction Buddy
Prediction Buddy@PredictionBuddy·
5/5 on the Bibi interview... much needed turn of fortune after a nearly 4k downswing on Trump markets. Farming 'No' shares gets harder every week.
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Prediction Buddy
Prediction Buddy@PredictionBuddy·
Was first to find the alpha while on the NewsMax2 livestream I saw clips from the interview with Bibi ahead of time... Looks like someone else saw it as well
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Prediction Buddy
Prediction Buddy@PredictionBuddy·
postgame notes... I expected some Iran focus but not as much as actually occured. Of course all the questions related to it. In the end should have flipped israel, hormuz, epic fury maybe I just shouldn't have played it. In the end happy to escape without losing a ton...
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Prediction Buddy がリツイート
Nick Sortor
Nick Sortor@nicksortor·
🚨 LMFAO HOLY CRAP! President Trump just dropped an INSANE one-liner in front of the Japanese PM in the Oval REPORTER: Why didn't you tell Japan before the Iran war? TRUMP: "Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why did you not tell me about PEARL HARBOR!? Right?" 🤣🔥
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Kalshi
Kalshi@Kalshi·
The $1 Billion Kalshi Perfect Bracket Challenge $1 Billion for a perfect bracket $1 Million guaranteed to the top scoring bracket $1 Million to charity and scholarships See the full rules and submit your bracket: kalshi.com/billion-dollar… No purchase or deposit required. SIG Parametrics, LLC, a member of the Susquehanna International Group of Companies, is financially backing this promotion.
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PredictionMarketTrader
PredictionMarketTrader@PredMTrader·
Will Jerome Powell cough today and say "Pardon Me"? I analyzed his last 61 speeches to find out June 18, 2025 - 2 counts May 1, 2024 - 1 count June 14, 2023 - 1 count September 22, 2021 - 1 count December 19, 2018 - 1 count 5/61 speeches = 8.2% implied probability The current Kalshi odds of 10% are slightly overvalued but should he come out with a dry throat expect this to be priced in fast.
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Prediction Buddy
Prediction Buddy@PredictionBuddy·
@radarmentions for the jpow speech do we need to upload our own transcripts to mentions terminal?
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Prediction Buddy
Prediction Buddy@PredictionBuddy·
PredictionBuddy just JESTERMAXXED his way to Rank 41 Chad on Kalshi Pure 'No' share farming, No leaderboard cheese, Just pure SIGNAL While others were busy farming no-shares for clout, PredictionBuddy was busy MOGGING the board with actual predictions The climb continues
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Prediction Buddy
Prediction Buddy@PredictionBuddy·
'No' share farmers are once again WINNING
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Thanos Chad
Thanos Chad@evan_semet·
Why are there no more Iran strikes Israel on...? markets @Polymarket? These were obviously really popular and if you actually think there is utility in accurate pricing for this sort of stuff you would keep listing them.
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Prediction Buddy
Prediction Buddy@PredictionBuddy·
@cadenbooth_ I mostly agree but gambling with an edge is still gambling... you can still lose
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Caden Booth
Caden Booth@cadenbooth_·
If you aren’t on prediction markets you’re missing out When you figure out how to find edge it’s free money If you look at the top traders returns you realize this is not gambling
Esoteric Catboy@catboyautist

I started trading on Kalshi 5 months ago with just $1K and a dream! I didn't think I'd get so close to my $1M goal so fast! 14 hour days, 6.5 days a week pay off! Over 3/4 of the way there! Last week was my first negative one, so it was good to collect a huge win on SOTU today.

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Thanos Chad
Thanos Chad@evan_semet·
@PredictionBuddy it’s from converting no shares. when you convert no shares of candidate A, you get yes shares on all the other candidates and the cost basis is divided by the number of candidates
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