
Recession Ninja
6.2K posts




This is a MUST read article by @smeslami & Zeynab Malakouti! It reveals how Tehran's calculations re the Straits have changed. Rather than use this leverage to negotiate an end to the war, Tehran is looking to establish a permanent transit fee mechanism and use its leverage to reestablish economic relations with countries who - due to US sanctions - have more or less ended their ties with Iran. responsiblestatecraft.org/strait-of-horm…











Niece of former Iranian IRGC chief had Tesla stuffed with thousands of dollars worth of Hermès cushions as she was arrested by ICE. Meanwhile millions of Iranians struggle to survive on $4 per day.







Here is a decision tree for Trump in Iran My base case is for a quick exit that grants him a clear claim to victory (nuke sites, missile silos) but not pushing so hard (Kharg takeover, power plants etc) that it leads to regional chaos. Market will puke if he escalates in a big way because the risk then shifts from a short term disruption in Hormuz to longer term supply outages from retaliatory attacks like we saw with Qatar. Once he leaves, then Europe and others will step up to clear Hormuz in a low risk manner.















