TimeandChange

1.1K posts

TimeandChange

TimeandChange

@TimeandC

“All wins and pushes were the correct outcome.”

参加日 Ocak 2020
783 フォロー中1.1K フォロワー
TimeandChange
TimeandChange@TimeandC·
@RufusPeabody @goldenpants013 Would be shocked if this amount of .1 wide liquidity exists forever, this feels promotional almost. But man is it great if it lasts
English
0
0
3
521
₿erryhorse
₿erryhorse@berryhorse_29·
people who think MLB is a liquid market are poor, dumb, or both.
English
7
0
15
11.6K
TimeandChange
TimeandChange@TimeandC·
@ShipTheJustice What about rewarding teams for past lottery bad luck instead of losing games. Ie Mavs basically no shot at top 5, so they’ll have to win. Jazz haven’t been in top 3 for forever so their range is really concentrated at the top. They can win games knowing they won’t all far.
English
1
0
1
289
The Shipper
The Shipper@ShipTheJustice·
i know it would be very confusing but using a randomised cutoff date after which wins count as losses for lottery purposes is the best choice imo. $1m per win the next best choice
English
5
0
10
4.9K
The Shipper
The Shipper@ShipTheJustice·
the nba will have to fix tanking this offseason. utah going full tank less than halfway through the season has broken even the unwritten rules. lottery reform reduced incentives but did not change incentives. a mouse still gonna chase the cheese whether it is a block or a crumb
Ricky O'Donnell@SBN_Ricky

We are about to see the gnarliest tank race in NBA history. The bottom 8 teams + the Bulls + the Bucks if they can pacify Giannis would all prefer to lose every game the rest of the season. There is no competitive integrity to be found here.

English
3
0
15
4.5K
TimeandChange
TimeandChange@TimeandC·
@statsbywill I think the teams being far enough behind in the first place are generally weaker and thus a natural underdog in overtime, but examples of the opposite are abundant as well
English
0
0
1
157
Will Warren
Will Warren@statsbywill·
Need to do a study on teams that make large comebacks to force overtime. I do not feel they win very often. A sort of reverse momentum? Gas Tank Theory?
English
8
0
26
12.6K
Canzhi
Canzhi@canzhi·
@Sports__Proj @goldenpants013 jump trading is taking an equity stake in kalshi/polymarket - how do u think things change? who is it good for? who is it bad for?
English
2
0
9
745
Sports Projections
Sports Projections@Sports__Proj·
Due to scheduling conflict, @goldenpants013 and I are recording the podcast today so if you have any questions or topics you want discussed feel free to comment or DM.
English
13
1
17
6.4K
Rob Pizzola
Rob Pizzola@robpizzola·
I’ve aged ten years every time I’ve had to enter an email address and password on a TV with a remote. How are we not past this as a society yet?
English
36
15
576
28.8K
TimeandChange
TimeandChange@TimeandC·
@statsbywill This is like when an nfl team hired urban Meyer because “he won a lot in college.” Would be an epic disaster.
English
1
0
5
2.6K
Will Warren
Will Warren@statsbywill·
Ryan Day, you can just walk out, brother. You can be the most anonymous Tennessee Titans head coach to ever exist. A happier, calmer, quieter life is there for you.
English
4
13
758
41.6K
TimeandChange
TimeandChange@TimeandC·
@BLSMaS_NFL Another correct take, people asking when the TV blog is coming
English
0
0
0
1.8K
Plus EV Analytics
Plus EV Analytics@PlusEVAnalytics·
Yes it's just a marketing example but if it's any indication, don't expect anything close to fair payouts on uncorrelated parlays. 10 / (.37*.48*.46) = 122.40
Plus EV Analytics tweet media
English
10
4
115
32K
Peanut
Peanut@peanut_bettor·
If you are a tout who is down on the year, I'd suggest that you probably don't have 5 gameday edges on a 10 game board. Try to beat Tuesday lines? Naah fire em up on anyone can get 100K without issue, those have edges.
English
7
1
38
6.8K
JAF
JAF@JonFendler·
@CorbieBO Way overbought right now on the higher stuff. Unders 62-32 this year when the total closes 165+
English
2
0
2
1.1K
Corbie
Corbie@CorbieBO·
I find the extremes in betting fascinating Today FSU vs UGA, for example: total in the 170's How high is "too high", if you knew both teams would play 0 defense, what could this total be? 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 > 𝟏𝟕𝟓 𝐋𝟏𝟎 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬: (𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫) 𝟏𝟏𝟏-𝟒𝟖 # of 170+ per szn 20: 2 21: 0 22: 1 23: 30 24: 34 *25: 42 *1 month into szn Basketball has evolved, totals are soaring to new highs but there aren't THAT many variables that can change 1) Tempo - nearly 2 possessions higher than years past. This makes sense logically, we watched football go from the I formation to Spread, speed comes with evolution. But *how fast* can they go 2) Points/Poss - Rim + Three & coaches diving into analytics has led to an increased PPP, but inevitably it can only go so high 𝐒𝐨... 𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐨𝐨 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡? Yearly avg total at close 20: 140.9 21: 139.5 22: 140.4 23: 144.4 24: 145 25: 150.6 ~ 50% O/U at close.. efficient market at volume Implied production increase per play this szn: +4% Given implied PPP, adjusted totals 22: 148.4 23: 148.1 24: 147.7 Giving me the directional thought that the current CBB market is overbought on totals, avg total will fall a bit over the course of the season opening door for unders to be directionally a slightly more easy route Long way of saying the market is efficient, historical stats don't matter as the game changes, but if I was a gambling man I'd assume you can get CLV betting more unders than overs in the coming months
English
2
0
18
5.3K
GoldenPants13
GoldenPants13@goldenpants013·
Our episode with @padadiso is now live! Was a HUGE honor to be the first podcast Pads has done. Alpha leaked all over the place in this one. Thank you for all of the questions - @Sports__Proj and I appreciate them and it makes our lives easier. Links below⬇️
English
8
0
62
60.9K
TimeandChange
TimeandChange@TimeandC·
@mr_peanutbettor Next thing they will try to convince you selling yes is the same as no. Don’t listen to Big Multi-way on this one
English
1
0
6
1.3K
Peanut
Peanut@peanut_bettor·
Not a single "no" button available. We are back to only one-way market offerings, a design everyone kinda admitted was bullshit. They have the balls to say this is better for the user Don't know how anyone can say that with a straight face.
Peanut tweet media
English
11
8
97
26.1K
TimeandChange
TimeandChange@TimeandC·
@sprotzbettor You should spend a few days a year doing what the beards would actually do to stay sharp
English
0
0
2
426
sprotzbettor
sprotzbettor@sprotzbettor·
nba pbpv2 reducing todays bettings to vibes only anybody want to book my eye test props
English
7
0
17
5.3K
TimeandChange
TimeandChange@TimeandC·
@statsbywill These BUR conference previews you’ve written are a revelation. Good jokes, good analysis, no forced even-handedness, I am smitten
English
2
0
3
565
Peanut
Peanut@peanut_bettor·
So Kalshi: Locked out anyone who doesn’t use their API, fucked them over completely, essentially allowed them to get stolen from. There response is “that’s okay it didn’t effect institutional traders” - including Kalshi Trading who profited Boy that don’t sound like a peer!
Peanut tweet media
English
18
4
115
25.7K