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I quit X. My last words: 1. I called the top in BTC/gold in jan '25, it will last for a long time. 2. Guru's like Raoul Pal keep you captured in the wrong bias. 3. Crypto is a financial asset that will underperform tangible assets we need to produce&consume for years to come.✌️

@natgmi The next important step for NAT is to not only become the second miner subsidy (on the supply side), but also the second Bitcoin tx fee-token (on the demand side). Mainly such an event will decisevely set NAT in Bitcoin's future fundament, because then demand will grow too.

The world is staring at $BTC price charts, completely missing the greatest hashrate migration in history. In hindsight, the market will realize the physical network quietly hardwired its own survival while Wall Street played with paper ETFs. NAT to shock the world. 🧵👇

@CryptoTice_ Lol, are you even serious?? He was wrong every time; - ETH call position on the top - missed previous cycle top - completely missed this top. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

RAOUL PAL JUST DROPPED THE MOST INSANE PREDICTION OF 2026. 🚨 $3 trillion to $100 trillion Same cycle as 2017. Peak by June. Everyone is watching the wrong signal. It's not the halving. It's not the bill. It's the cycle. And Raoul Pal says we're in it right now. AI money flowing in. ETF billions piling up. Global liquidity expanding. Regulatory clarity arriving. $100 trillion isn't a prediction anymore. It's a roadmap. June 2026. Circle it. The man who called the last cycle… Just told you exactly when this one peaks. Are you positioned?

@clevernorris @RaoulGMI @parataxis_cap This guy is a genius in being wrong eveey cycle. I remember him putting on a large ETH call position at the top. He missed the top and stayed long kast cycle. Current cycle he is still long because of the business cycle. Lol. People should be able to draw their conclusions.

@RaoulGMI @parataxis_cap 0 credibility. Instead of acknowledging so many consecutive shitty calls, you keep play us a fool.

The four-year cycle isn't the story anymore. Ed and TJ from @parataxis_cap joined me to break down what actually drives crypto from here. Liquidity, macro, ETF flows and, the coming wave of AI agents. As ever, please enjoy!

@Microinteracti1 @LindseyGrahamSC @POTUS 💯💯💯💯

Senator Graham says he has never heard Trump so angry. Somewhere in Europe, nobody is sleeping badly about this. Let’s be precise about what’s actually happening here. Europe has spent thirty years trying to contain Iran through diplomacy. The JCPOA was a European initiative. Trump tore it up in 2018. Iran’s nuclear programme accelerated directly as a result. Europe warned this would happen. Nobody listened. Now Graham is calling European diplomacy “a miserable failure” while standing next to the man who blew up the only agreement that was working. As for the Strait of Hormuz. Europe imports oil through it, yes. So does China. So does India. So does Japan. If Graham wants a coalition, he has a planet to call. What he appears to want, however, is specifically European military assets deployed in support of a war Europe was not consulted on, did not request and does not want. That is not an alliance. That’s a shit show. Graham says this makes him “second guess the value of these alliances.” Europe has been second guessing that value since Trump. Welcome to the conversation, Senator. You are about eight years late.

Just spoke to @POTUS about our European allies’ unwillingness to provide assets to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning, which benefits Europe far more than America. I have never heard him so angry in my life. I share that anger given what’s at stake. The arrogance of our allies to suggest that Iran with a nuclear weapon is of little concern and that military action to stop the ayatollah from acquiring a nuclear bomb is our problem not theirs is beyond offensive. The European approach to containing the ayatollah’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be a miserable failure. The repercussions of providing little assistance to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning are going to be wide and deep for Europe and America. I consider myself very forward-leaning on supporting alliances, however at a time of real testing like this, it makes me second guess the value of these alliances. I am certain I am not the only senator who feels this way.

@RaoulGMI Many words for being wrong for so long and so bad. Even IF you are right, you were wrojg in between. And by the way: welcome to THE OTHER form of stimulus. You know what form and it's not the one you refer to which is beneficial to crypto. Wrong, wrong and wrong again.

I can see how despondent everyone is about crypto and the pure chartists are telling you it's all over, but I don't agree... Global Liquidity is the most dominant macro factor in history with a 90% correlation to BTC and 97% to NDX since 2012. It is growing at around 10% a year and is not slowing. GMI financial conditions lead it by 6 months. They are still easing. The air pocket was US Total Liquidty which was curtailed by the shut down. It leads crypto by 3 months and is accelerating from its low 3 months ago. The business cycle is the key driver of earning and thus risk. It is accelerating. The eSLR is the mechanism by which banks can increase liquidity via credit and absorbing treasury issuance. This liquidity is rising too and will accelerate. Tax refunds land on bank balance sheets and add to propensity of credit creation and thus liquidity. China is accelerating expanding its balance sheet. More rate cuts are coming in the US and will add to disposable income and thus risk taking. CLARITY Act will likely get agreed and adds to flows. The wall of banks and asset managers wanting to use this technology is enormous and this bill sorts that out. Stablecoins are accelerating and issuance grew 50% last year and is accelerating. Volumes are in the trillions of $'s and are accelerating. We have the most supportive government for crypto ever in the US. Finally the agents are coming and will hyper accelerate. They are an entirely new TAM The crypto market is still in fear and by most measures the most oversold in history. Weekly DeMark indicators would give a very solid base in 2 weeks (you can now get them officially on Trading View). Daily DeMark's are stack up too. Any weakness from here will complete the dailies and the weeklies indicating full trend reversal potential. The risk factor is how long oil prices stay up. The next 2 weeks are the key focus. I think this all resolves positively. Higher.

@MilkRoad The amusing part is still in front. The guru's think everything remains the same because of their lineair thinking. Completely missing the turn of the big yield cycle. Interesting how smart they present themselves, while actually being pretty stupid. Time for 🍿

Raoul Pal: Retail didn't abandon crypto. They lost their stake and went to a different casino (AI). They're in their 20s, can't afford a house, working 3 jobs, and looking for a way out. They'll be back the moment crypto outperforms. It's rationality, not disloyalty.

@natssats Watch my pinned post and other posts from that period. There aren't many good enough at TA. Most only focus on BTC/USD and other crypto metrics. I've warned for this scenario by then. Most didn't even want to believe it was even a possibility. 🥱✌️

@het_tk Thanks for sharing this. Very well done, if you rotated out of crypto in Jan 2025 - I think I haven't seen anyone on the timeline doing that haha

The next dissapointment for the Crypto Guru's will be the end of relative outperformance of crypto as a whole. The coming decade the commodities rush will be so big and strong, most will wish they opened their bias earlier. Watch & learn. 🍿

@KPMoon I think you may be right. Ordinals eventually have more scarcity than Bitcoin itself. Waaayy more scarcity than Bitcoin even if you take into account the paper Bitcoin tradfi has flooded the market with. But the market first has to figure it out.

Ordinals saved Bitcoin from being just digital gold. Mark my words.

@bramk @michaeljburry De difficulty adjustment brengt niet meer inkomsten in het miner laadje. Fees blijven veel te ver achter. Let op de halving in 2028, alwaar de miners het pas echt zwaar gaan krijgen. Zonder inflationaire Bitcoin, belasten van holders, of een subsidy zoals $NAT, gaat het mis.

Wow, @michaeljburry doesn’t even understand the difficulty adjustment?

You (and Raoul) failed to call the top. (Raoul even took his base with him with his DFTU bias and he also missed previous cycle top 🥱). The second part of the dissapointment/miscalculation will be the failure too see -upfront- the end of relative outperformance. NOBODY is taking into account many technicals point to the end of relative outperformance for Bitcoin (and most other crypto, some very specific nishes aside). I think you guys should start seriously to rethink your bias, be WAY MORE PRUDENT towards the community which is losing with/on you and start to think outside of crypto too. Full focus on crypto -and all it's nishes- and you will fail, again. Peace and DFTU, again. ✌️

@RaoulGMI thanks mate.

1/ The BTC crash will prompt deep self-reflection. Here's mine as I review the last 4 months from the peak. Price action was clear from the $90K breakdown in January. But it was back in September when I first saw the potential for turbulence: x.com/Jamie1Coutts/s… At the time I wrote: I expected a Fed pivot. We got one (end of QT → "Reserves Management"). I expected the business cycle to inflect higher. It has (ISM 48 → 52.6). I expected a "normal" 25-30% pullback. We are now in a -50% pullback. BTC is a core position but in Sept and October I derisked some peripheral positions. I could have done alot more. My liquidity model was actually inflecting higher so I held ground. But the technicals were decisively bearish. I saw it and didn't act. That's on me. 2/ Why didn't I act more aggressively? Because I failed to respect how wide the gap between thesis and price can get. If your time horizon is short, the only thing that matters is price. I also underestimated how finite marginal liquidity really is. October 10 rugged the broader market, AI scarcity repriced where capital flows, and the deleveraging event hit simultaneously. Crypto got cut from the marginal liquidity equation in real time. This isn't a blame game. But everything in markets is relative, and I didn't adjust fast enough. 3/ The deeper failure is one I think many share. The psychology of this market reflects collective belief. And the collective treats BTC and crypto as an ATM, not a utility. When the primary use case is "number go up" and price detaches from the utility function, markets distort. Previous cycle gains created a withdrawal reflex, not a conviction base. I knew this intellectually. I didn't price it into my risk framework. There's a gap between understanding market psychology and actually respecting it with your positions. Thats why TA is powerful. 4/ None of this changes my long-term view. BTC remains a core position. Blockchains are becoming integral global infrastructure, and that trajectory is accelerating. AI agents will need permissionless, programmable rails to transact. They won't wait for legacy banks to negotiate deals that preserve their margins at the consumer's expense. By the time incumbents finish lobbying for regulatory moats, the early agentic economy should be visible for all to see. The cycle pain is real. But my thesis remains intact. Today's move is approaching capitulation levels on many metrics. However, credit needs to go to folks @intocryptoverse and @cburniske, who applied a different framework and were early/right. Disagreement between analysts who do the work isn't failure. It's what tests robustness. That's how the craft improves. 5/ One more thing. Every analyst needs a framework that suits their own psychology and time horizon. No framework works 100% of the time. What matters is that you do the work, build a thesis, test it, and evolve it. People like @RaoulGMI and @JulienBittel have done that consistently. Their track records speak for themselves. Let the poo flinging commence.

@cryptomanran You must live in your own bubble. What you 'finally discoverd' was already common knowledge.

I finally discovered why gold has been rallying. And it has nothing to do with inflation. Nothing to do with tariffs. And nothing to do with interest rates. It’s a war. Not the kind you see on CNN. Not a battlefield war. A monetary war. China has been quietly executing a long-term strategy: Selling U.S. Treasuries and accumulating gold. China’s U.S. Treasury holdings just fell to the lowest level since 2008. At the same time, it’s been buying gold for 14 consecutive months. Because if you want your currency to be a reserve currency, you need trust. And no one trusts a fiat currency backed by infinite debt and money printing. You need credibility. You need something that can’t be printed. Gold. This is exactly what Ray Dalio warned about: when countries print endlessly and drown in debt, monetary empires fall and new ones rise. This is why central banks are buying gold at a record pace. Why are commodities moving together? And why the DXY is falling more than 12% I break down the full strategy, the endgame, and how I’m positioning in my new video. [link in comments]

I am not bearish (crypto what u mean I gues) short-term. I was bearish since dec '24 / jan '24 when all my charts said BTC was close to a peak. Now we have fallen this much, the most downside is done. A bounce or even a sustained bottom are now becoming a possibility again. I took 80% out of crypto in jan '25 and added everything to pm's which I was already heaviky allocated to. Now I am almost all in commodities for the longer term. I have some selected smaller positions in crypto that will pay off big IF there is any bull coming that I may be missing, but my money is on commodity stocks for the near future. Mostly energy (oil) at the moment. ✌️

@het_tk Since you're bearish short-term, are you holding anything now or just waiting for a crash to buy back in? What tokens are on your accumulation list?

@R89Capital 😂💀🍿

I wonder if Raoul has sold his SUI yet "Banana Zone" Floppy wiener zone.

@ThinkingBitmex Wow. 💀🍿

Bitcoin bottomed at right under $60k It's now up 10% in 6 hours Soon it'll be over $70k and all the little "doomer" bears are going to be in disbullief Get ready for the start of the new bull market

@OGDfarmer So you weren't right. THAT is the hard part. Most locked biasses will have to come to reality again. It hurts.

The worst part of all this is having been right on every single macro dynamic of the past 5 years, and holding the thing that was designed for this very environment. And being absolutely murdered for it instead.

@natssats Hi mate, below $70k my next target zone for the remainer of this year is zone ~$30k-$40k. Risks now are the DAT's that may have to start unwinding in the process. Peace. ✌️

@het_tk What are your thoughts on BTC against the dollar? Where do you see it heading leading up to the 2028 halving?

The lower $BTC drops, the more essential the secondary subsidy income from $NAT becomes. Interesting times ahead...

Raoul: 1. Totally off and missed this top AGAIN (like previous cycle) 2. Multiple times I layed out BTC/fold top in early 2025 (0,0 response) 3. Blind bias, no room for objective view 4. THE RISK for investors who follow X-accounts to base their investments on. Fucked it up, again.

"Mea culpa" hurts too. Multiple times I've layed out the Bitcoin/gold top in early 2025, also in replies to Raoul. Too bad the 'DFTU' actually led to "fucked it up, again". Problem now is, people still think this is a normal bearmarkt. I BELIEVE CRYPTO LOST ITS RELATIVE OUTPERFORMANCE FOR A LONG TIME TO COME. Place tour bets wisely.