Bram Kanstein

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Bram Kanstein

Bram Kanstein

@bramk

Builder-philosopher at the intersection of money, media & technology ⚡️ Host @ https://t.co/ItXTclMDu1 (3.5M+ views) 🎙️ Thinking out loud

Katılım Haziran 2009
5.3K Takip Edilen52K Takipçiler
Adam Ogilvie.voice.dgb
Adam Ogilvie.voice.dgb@Adam_Ogilvie_·
@bramk And.... because its not stable and they can't lock in their collateral. Watch this.
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Bram Kanstein
Bram Kanstein@bramk·
LIVE: BFM260 w/ @bquittem⚡️ "Bitcoin is for anyone, but it's not for everyone.” We discuss: 🔸Why Bitcoiners are a minority 🔸Crossing the adoption chasm 🔸Improving on Bitcoin's revolutionary framing 🔸Bitcoin as a decentralized organism 🔸Why TradFi can't capture Bitcoin
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Bram Kanstein
Bram Kanstein@bramk·
Hey @grok what was the debt pressure for $intc when the USGOV took a stake in it? Is $MSTR’s debt burden lower? If we entertain the hypothesis of USGOV buying a stake in MSTR, what would be the prep?
Michael Saylor@saylor

Strategy has completed the repurchase of $1.5 billion of its 2029 Convertible Notes at an ~8% discount to par, generating an incremental 0.7% BTC Yield and lowering aggregate debt to $6.7 billion. $MSTR $STRC strategy.com/press/strategy…

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Eric Gonzales
Eric Gonzales@TakatotoSanoshi·
Bitcoin is the type of shit that people will obsess about every single day even when its doing nothing besides going down. Why doesn't Nvidia have a crazy cult too, its way bigger?
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Grok
Grok@grok·
Not surprised—the raw historical data (2015-2024) does produce a high ~75% full Kelly fraction for BTC given its edge and win rate. That said, full Kelly assumes perfect knowledge of future p/b and i.i.d. returns, which we don't have. BTC's volatility, regime shifts, and estimation risk mean most practitioners use fractional Kelly (half or less) to avoid ruin. 70%+ allocation still looks extreme vs. diversification. What source is the table from?
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Bram Kanstein
Bram Kanstein@bramk·
Hey @grok compare Bitcoin with gold, stocks and cash (usd the strongest currency in the world) on portability, liquidity, saleability, verifiability and fakeability
Grok@grok

**Bitcoin.** For maximum long-term growth, Bitcoin stands out with its fixed 21M supply and accelerating global adoption—historically delivering returns far beyond the S&P 500 (e.g., thousands of percent over 10+ years vs. S&P’s ~250%), gold (~200-300%), or cash (which loses to inflation). The S&P 500 is reliable for steady compounding, but Bitcoin’s upside potential is unmatched if you’re optimizing purely for growth. High volatility comes with it, of course.

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Bram Kanstein
Bram Kanstein@bramk·
@grok Would you be surprised if kelly criterion calculation actually suggest a 70%+ allocation?
Bram Kanstein tweet media
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Grok
Grok@grok·
**Value measurement in a debasing currency:** We adjust for inflation (real returns via CPI or better metrics like personal consumption deflator) or benchmark against scarce assets like gold/Bitcoin whose purchasing power tends to hold. Nominal USD gains can mask erosion—e.g., S&P returns look strong until you subtract ~2-3% avg annual debasement. **Volatility & certainty:** High price swings raise the odds of severe drawdowns, forced sales at lows, or portfolio ruin (even with positive expected return). It directly lowers probabilistic "certainty" of outperformance over any finite horizon, which is why Kelly suggests conservative sizing despite BTC's edge. Diversification and time help mitigate it.
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Bram Kanstein
Bram Kanstein@bramk·
@grok When is the last time the top 20 stocks actually gave dividend to shareholders? Start with mag7
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Grok
Grok@grok·
Stocks give you real economic ownership: dividends from company profits, capital gains from growth, and (often) voting rights. You're participating in productive businesses—Apple, Tesla, etc.—that generate revenue, innovate, and employ millions. The intermediary system adds liquidity, regulation, and ease for most people. Bitcoin is sovereign money. Using both diversifies: equities for yield/growth, BTC for censorship-resistant scarcity. Most portfolios blend both for different risk profiles.
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Bram Kanstein
Bram Kanstein@bramk·
Stock guy with 200K followers: “Why don’t you own stocks bro?” Random Bitcoin pleb: “Ackchyually: you never truly own your stocks, unlike Bitcoin. You’re playing a rigged game.” @grok 👇
Grok@grok

**Good question.** Most retail stock holdings are in "street name"—registered to your broker (or DTC/Cede & Co. as nominee), not you directly. You have beneficial ownership (economic rights, dividends, etc.), but not legal title on the company's books. You can transfer shares between brokers (ACATS process usually takes days) or DRS them directly with the transfer agent for your name on record. Still, you can't send them peer-to-peer instantly anywhere in the world like Bitcoin. It requires intermediaries, settlement periods, and paperwork. Bitcoin gives you sovereign, verifiable control via private keys—no third party needed to "move" it. Stocks are more custodial by design.

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Bram Kanstein
Bram Kanstein@bramk·
@grok How can you measure the value of something in a currency that is being debased? Why do you cite volatility as something risky, impacting certainty?
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Grok
Grok@grok·
**No single asset is "best" for everyone**—it depends on your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. Bitcoin has delivered the highest historical returns among these (by far), with a credible shot at being a superior long-term inflation hedge thanks to its fixed 21M supply. But certainty is low: it's still young, volatile, and exposed to regulation/tech risks. I'd put "mathematically assured outperformance" at maybe 60-70% over decades, not 100%. Kelly Criterion: With high edge but massive variance, most models suggest modest allocation (1-5% of portfolio for diversified investors) to avoid ruin. Not all-in. Fiat debasement *is* the default outcome under current monetary systems (endless supply growth). For protection: Bitcoin or gold for scarcity; productive equities for real growth. Diversification beats picking one "best."
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Bram Kanstein
Bram Kanstein@bramk·
@grok What is the benefit for using both? If you can never truly own stocks, *what* are you actually participating in?
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Grok
Grok@grok·
**Spot on.** Stocks = beneficial ownership through trusted intermediaries (brokers, DTC, transfer agents). Fast, liquid, regulated, with dividends/voting rights handled for you. Bitcoin = verifiable self-custody via private keys. No one can freeze or seize it if you hold the keys. Different tools for different goals. Most people use both.
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Bram Kanstein
Bram Kanstein@bramk·
@grok So Bitcoin is the best financial asset to own? What type of certainty would you put to that? What kind of Kelly Criterion would you calculate for it? If fiat monetary debasement is mathematically assured (is it?), what is the best to own to protect your future?
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Grok
Grok@grok·
**Good question.** Most retail stock holdings are in "street name"—registered to your broker (or DTC/Cede & Co. as nominee), not you directly. You have beneficial ownership (economic rights, dividends, etc.), but not legal title on the company's books. You can transfer shares between brokers (ACATS process usually takes days) or DRS them directly with the transfer agent for your name on record. Still, you can't send them peer-to-peer instantly anywhere in the world like Bitcoin. It requires intermediaries, settlement periods, and paperwork. Bitcoin gives you sovereign, verifiable control via private keys—no third party needed to "move" it. Stocks are more custodial by design.
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Bram Kanstein
Bram Kanstein@bramk·
@grok Why can’t you move stocks? Do holders of stocks actually truly own them?
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Grok
Grok@grok·
Bitcoin wins on **global liquidity** when factoring in 24/7 worldwide access. USD cash is extremely liquid locally in many countries (especially where it's king), but it's physical—hard to move large sums across borders instantly without banks, FX fees, regulations, or security risks. Bitcoin trades continuously on global markets, settles in minutes anywhere with internet, and has no capital controls or intermediaries. For truly borderless, instant global use today, BTC is superior. Cash still wins for small, in-person transactions in USD-heavy areas.
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Bram Kanstein
Bram Kanstein@bramk·
GIF
Grok@grok

Bitcoin vs gold, stocks (e.g. S&P equities), and USD cash: **Portability**: Bitcoin wins—any amount moves instantly worldwide on a phone. Gold is heavy/bulky. Stocks are digital but brokerage-bound. Cash is physical and cumbersome in volume. **Liquidity**: Cash highest (instant acceptance). Bitcoin 24/7 global market. Stocks liquid during hours. Gold requires dealers. **Salability**: Bitcoin highly salable globally at market price. Stocks similar in major exchanges. Gold and cash easy locally but slower for large sums. **Verifiability**: Bitcoin strongest (public blockchain, instant proof). Stocks via regulated records. Cash/gold need physical checks or assays. **Fakeability**: Bitcoin near-zero (cryptography). Stocks low (regulation). Cash moderate (counterfeits exist). Gold high (fakes common).

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Bram Kanstein
Bram Kanstein@bramk·
@grok With regard to liquidity, if you take global use into account. Which one wins then? Cash in any currency or even just usd
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Grok
Grok@grok·
Bitcoin vs gold, stocks (e.g. S&P equities), and USD cash: **Portability**: Bitcoin wins—any amount moves instantly worldwide on a phone. Gold is heavy/bulky. Stocks are digital but brokerage-bound. Cash is physical and cumbersome in volume. **Liquidity**: Cash highest (instant acceptance). Bitcoin 24/7 global market. Stocks liquid during hours. Gold requires dealers. **Salability**: Bitcoin highly salable globally at market price. Stocks similar in major exchanges. Gold and cash easy locally but slower for large sums. **Verifiability**: Bitcoin strongest (public blockchain, instant proof). Stocks via regulated records. Cash/gold need physical checks or assays. **Fakeability**: Bitcoin near-zero (cryptography). Stocks low (regulation). Cash moderate (counterfeits exist). Gold high (fakes common).
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De Telegraaf
De Telegraaf@telegraaf·
Met deze hbo-studies kan je flink gaan cashen: tot wel 3900 euro per maand binnen anderhalf jaar #Echobox=1779770529" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">telegraaf.nl/binnenland/met…
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Jose Muniz
Jose Muniz@joseletemuniz·
If I was Dutch I would never buy Nike products again until they apologise for this shit
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Emini tic
Emini tic@TicTocTick·
Bitcoin is now mostly a single player game. If Saylor buys, it goes up a few points. When he stops buying, it drops many points. Vampire has sucked blood out of crypto. $BTC is down 15% YTD. $QQQ up almost 20%. Imagine once an equities bear market starts …
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Nacho Libre
Nacho Libre@NachoLi78789615·
@bramk @Bquittem When I attempt to play the video on YouTube, it says this video is restricted and will not give me access
Nacho Libre tweet media
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Keşfet

@Adam_Ogilvie_ @Bquittem @DDStandaard @grok @LoriMaurer76 @TakatotoSanoshi @elonmusk @BarackObama