jonrapaport

@_chenglou determinism is boring

Deterministic LLM inference is a hill I’ll die on! I found myself having to explain (to software engineers nonetheless! Maybe we got too used to chat) why it’s important

@zachrose51 cambridgegrowthmarketing.com

We just killed cold email: Introducing Draftboard. The world’s first AI Sales Director that outperforms any human. Comment your website and we’ll find you intros to 10 dream prospects for free.

@0xWast3 congrats on the new version of pong

Tennis agent. $11,200 in two weeks. Five layers. Zero emotions. Pure math. While you watch the match - my agent watches something else YOLO tracks every movement on court Bayesian engine updates win probability after every game Claude reads press conferences, injury reports, social media "Sinner mentioned hip discomfort" → injury flag: 0.6 Market reacts in hours. My agent - in seconds Four numbers compared simultaneously: > Model probability > Polymarket price > Bookmaker line > Claude's adjustment When all four diverge - that's the trade Bookmakers optimized for decades Polymarket hasn't The window is open Are you still betting with your eyes instead of math?

@catboyautist @Kalshi congrats Moonlight. Praise Baal.

Seven months ago I started trading on @Kalshi with just $1,000. Today, I made my first million! It's been an incredible journey, and I am so grateful for all the friends and knowledge I've acquired along the way. I won't sugarcoat it, at one point I was really worried about my future. When I started trading I was an unemployable CS student with no internships working a 15.45$/hr retail job. I'll spare the details but struggling with chronic physical and mental problems also compounded my worries. A few months in, I graduated early with a $100K port, quit my job and then transitioned to trading full time. Since then, I managed to 10x my port, and have seen @PredictHQ_ grow from a casual hangout chat with @Jarrad_sol and @locksy to the hottest prediction market community around! I feel as though a world of weight has been lifted from my shoulders, I've been grinding so damn hard every single day to bring this goal into fruition. Now that I've finally achieved it, I don't know what's in store for me next. All I know is that I'm incredibly thankful to everyone who believed in and helped me when I was but a fish posting on here. Love you guys♥️

@PredMTrader absolute legend @catboyautist clearly no alpha left in mentions

Someone just turned $2k into $200k on a Todd Blanche Kalshi Mention Market >The interview ended early into the show >People bonded no at 99 cents for $200k >They aired one final clip in the last minute where he hit “marijuana” Generational 100x

@Lord_of_Candy how did you arrive at the 30% figure?

@jonrapaport Also found it crazy how 30% were just faster than I could attack. Can’t get any closer to metal. That firehose is insane. I’ll circle back at some point. The architecture is there I just can’t figure out what I want out of it. Easier work elsewhere for now. 😅

tldr: claude is a whale, kalshi has no rules, i got past-posted on trade 1 3 things i learned in week 1 of rfq making on kalshi → your v1 will suck. i got past-posted on my first fill. → tickers are inconsistent. for the phillips/jourdain MMA fight saturday night, kalshi had valid tickers for JOU-PHI and PHI-JOU. ah yes, the ever elusive r-squared = 1 correlation play. good for you. → claude is a whale. claude is a degenerate. claude does not value your money and it will cost you way more than the $200 max subscription in EV if you let claude mind your storefront. know your data better than your ai. h/t @goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj and their excellent podcast

@Lord_of_Candy margins are thin, true. less true if you can cover props/SGPs and keep quoting live.

@jonrapaport I hate dealing with kalshi rfq’s. Such a battle zone of thin margins.

@LisaLi561 the best kind of issue. fixable.

@jonrapaport Sounds like a Skill issue

@goldenpants013 thanks man! took a few shots at it and this is best version so far

@jonrapaport very sick visualization

@goatyishere this is a good one

This 50-minute lecture by the scientist who built trading algorithms for Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers will teach you more about how machine learning actually works in algorithmic trading than most $1,000 courses ever will. Bookmark this and watch it tonight. It's the highest-leverage thing you can do if you want to understand how professional trading bots are really built. Then read the article below.

if there’s any form of apocalypse the adults who wear sleep sacks should be among the first to go

feel you. suggest working on gaining greater measurable confidence in your FV’s and quantifying signals and edges. in my experience in trading, poker, and sports betting, the more rigor and precision you can add (within reason), the greater conviction you will develop. win rate and EV help but not enough to help you go massive in the biggest spots. greater measurable conviction -> comfort with greater size and swings

My biggest struggle is still not sizing up bigger in good spots I feel like I haven’t increased sizing at all as my bankroll has grown I don’t know why I am SUCH A WIMP and so scared of having larger swings It is such a barrier for me that I need to get over

@AleiahLock can someone please show me evidence for the predictive value with an actual dataset i can replicate?

@yellowpantherx @PolymarketTrade @trylimitless @predictdotfun @Kalshi @opinionlabsxyz @MyriadMarkets i’m down

Prediction markets will become a norm in a few years time. Polymarket. Kalshi. Predict Fun. Limitless. Myriad. Opinions. No matter the platform. We’re still very early and I want to start a closed group for active people. Who wants in? 🤝

@AleiahLock mapped this to kalshi endpoints. thanks

@PredictParity next time go market by market and use brier and then decile bucket it

Prediction Market Accuracy 1d before resolution Out of 146,960 resolved markets. Odds at 50% are the most mispriced. Interestingly both platforms have a negative bias meaning these markets consistently overprice yes as a outcome.

@obscicron deepgram > assembly / vosk ?

I built a bot to trade Kalshi mention markets faster than any human Automatically transcribes LIVE speeches using Deepgram Nova-3 and instantly buys/sells for profit

@marthamaccallum @JDVance @TheStoryFNC @FoxNews will this be live?

EXCLUSIVE: Today, my one-on-one with Vice President @JDVance as the administration confronts key issues for American voters ahead of Midterm Elections. 3pmET @thestoryfnc @foxnews