Peptide Capitalist

@joannejang This has to be Figure right? And not even remotely close

hypothetically if you're willing to bet literally 90% of your net worth that an ai startup valued $30B+ will fail, where / how would you bet?

@mignano By extension shouldn’t this make you more excited about the inference providers (fireworks baseten et al) x.com/peptidecap/sta…

@reidRMC @brexton My b lol timing was just funny. Do you actually agree with that tweet though? The two examples of Josh and Neil aren’t great comparisons for even folks spinning from T1 funds given their backgrounds. Feels like bad idea for your average 28 yo principal to try it

@peptidecap @brexton Haha not at all, I saw this tweet and agreed with it

No better time to spin out a firm unless you like and respect who you work with Or you got fired, that’s always a good time to “spin out”

@brexton @reidRMC Is this subtweeting who I think it is? If so idgi why would Reid have beef with him… literally the nicest dude in the industry

@reidRMC Holy shit This is now the new bar for your twitter

@chongz Fireworks as at 350M at end of last year - on relative growth basis Baseten has been much faster

POV: It's 2026 and you backed an inference provider

@frontier_foid @lqiao @FireworksAI_HQ No way - her rev growth stat is ex Cursor but no way in hell they’re at $800M of non cursor ARR unless they drastically exploded sometime over the last month

We just hit a major milestone — @FireworksAI_HQ passed $800M annualized run rate and reached 4x revenue growth, apart from Cursor, in Q1. We invite curious and courageous minds to join us and define new frontiers of specialized intelligence!

@insane_analyst Can I DM you

@peptidecap Yes

Preview of intro and table of contents. HBM is a dumb solution for I/O issue. Correct solution (optics driven by clock-forwarded SerDes) can use LPDDR or DDR.

@tailrisked Not surprised. The best performers over the last 5 years were uniformly not the people who went to b school. If you did the IB/PE track and were good you either stayed and got direct VP promote or went to publics/crossover

Wharton - seems like everyone has just been taking the piss for the last two years. Not a single person comments on the substance of what they have learned. I think there is a lot to negative selection in mba’s now. No longer needed to build a professional network like it was a few decades ago

I’m at a family members MBA graduation and it’s a sorry state of affairs Everyone is just bragging about how they spent the last two years drinking and traveling Everyone I have spoken too is unimpressive and unmotivated

Indiscriminate tokenmaxxing and letting teams run wild racking up usage bills on Opus tokens is a temporary phenomenon Frontier spend is a leading indicator for open source spend. There will be a massive shift of many workloads (not all but many) to open source and people are underestimating how much value will accrue to @baseten @FireworksAI_HQ et al Both raising at $10-15B valuations which at face value feels nosebleed…but so did previous rounds at valuations they’ve already grown into

@aschmitt @FundaAI @CignalAI There is a particular coherent lite vendor that most public markets folks do not know about that is going to rip because of this…

@FundaAI Google is doing 2.4T Coherent Lite with single stage OCS, @CignalAI covered this post-OFC.

From some discussions we came across today on TPU v9 networking, the direction seems broadly consistent with what we had touched on in our earlier report. The next step-up in Google's TPU networking bandwidth appears to come from two directions. First, the new scale-out network architecture, which seems to be increasingly corroborated by the Boardfly direction and Virgo Network. Second, the continued upgrades in scale-up / ICI bandwidth. We had also flagged the possibility that future TPU systems could move toward a higher-dimensional torus topology, potentially a 6D torus. If TPU v9 upgrades the topology, optical module speed, and port ratio at the same time, a roughly 4x increase in ICI bandwidth versus TPU v8 may not be entirely out of reach. This is likely not just a matter of "buying more optical modules." It could reflect a system-level architecture shift in Google's TPU roadmap toward higher bandwidth and higher optical interconnect content. One point that did not get much airtime in today's discussion, but which we had spent more time on in our earlier report, is the potential introduction of coherent-lite technology. If coherent optics does make its way into this part of the architecture, the dollar content per optical module could rise meaningfully — in some designs, perhaps even close to doubling. It would also bring in a more complex modulation stack, which may call for more advanced silicon photonics, thin-film lithium niobate, or other higher-end PIC platforms. That matters because the value migration would not be limited to the module layer. It could also benefit upstream components, including lasers, modulators, PICs, DSPs, connectors, and advanced packaging. If this plays out, the TPU networking upgrade would meaningfully shift more AI cluster value into optical and connectivity content. Names we'd keep an eye on as potential beneficiaries include $LITE , $COHR , InnoLight, $NOK , $MRVL , $SMTC , $AXTI , and $TSEM .

@catboosted There’s no way it’s sub $10M… dm me

Also for those familiar with it, yes, Parallel was/is going for a raise. Sub ~$10M ARR, are my best estimates

@FundamentEdge This is absolutely insane value to be giving out for free and should be mandatory viewing for anyone in publics Except for the millenium boiz whose compliance won’t give them any AI tool access 🤣

Replay of Webinar: AI for Financial Modeling youtube.com/watch?v=Z4qCnC…

@EverettRandle What do you even do as a growth investor today… almost feels like nothing else is meaningful and that’s why you see even traditionally “growthy” firms going way earlier

@ItzSuds 250 for reps??? Damn brother

Quick Update: have 8 series As from seed now. Most likely 1 more by end of month. The sun is a little brighter. The air feels a little cleaner. I’m benching 250 for reps & I’m not depressed anymore My dream of escaping the post-AGI poverty underclass feels slightly in reach now

@CoorsLightCEO @sellsidepleb Bernstein was the best recent one, there are also people on here too like @jasonschips who are putting out good stuff and SA obviously

@peptidecap @sellsidepleb any fav big ones / primers? i sent over bernstein field guide and cantor recent crwv math

Who is the best analyst on the neoclouds? Looking for someone that is deep in the economics and business model specifically.

@sellsidepleb @CoorsLightCEO Remind me later today I have em

@CoorsLightCEO Can you hook a brother up?

Bezos on a podcast: “There are easier businesses to do [than frontier tech]. If you’re trying to make money, start a salty snack food company or something” Refreshing to see a green gummy brand crush it at a time when everyone is freaking out about the AI singularity