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PROPHET

@prophet_notes

#1 Paid Prediction Market Newsletter | Polymarket | Geopolitics | Economy | If you follow the herd you are sure to get slaughtered

参加日 Aralık 2023
593 フォロー中2K フォロワー
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PROPHET
PROPHET@prophet_notes·
Welcome to another week! The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed while the US is looking to start escort operations. But can they succeed in time? I don't think anyone has an answer to this question as different countries start to react to the crisis. This and more in today's Global Outlook 👇
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PROPHET
PROPHET@prophet_notes·
There are 2 kinds of geopolitical experts currently: Those who suck the imperial dick and those who are gravely concerned.
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PROPHET
PROPHET@prophet_notes·
@UnintendedCons5 Trump is looking for an off-ramp since the strikes have started. Doesn't change the fact that currently the only realistic one is taking the L and moving on...
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PROPHET
PROPHET@prophet_notes·
@InternLon @TheMindScourge East west pipelines as well as Red Sea infrastructure is well within reach of Iranian missiles. Also nord stream 2 showed how easy it is to render such an investment null…
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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
Hormuz is a weapon that can only be fired once No one should expect a quick resolution to the current crisis, but across the next decade, even the next 3-5 years, the choke point of Hormuz will be massively substituted for The Gulf Arab states are all very rich, with high per capita GDP - the best single measure of relative state capacity - easy access to global markets, especially financial, and have the favorable backing of the US Everyone has known about the Hormuz vulnerability for decades. The Iranians have continually hinted around closing it, but never did. Now they have, but Hormuz is a gun that cannot be reloaded. Deterrents work only up to the point of use. Once used, they have failed. The purpose of a deterrent is to *not* be used Many analysts have made this basic mistake. They think that Iran is now in a position of strength, having exercised its Hormuz option. But the opposite is true. A state is weakest after it has used its deterrent. The cost of that deterrence is now priced in. The worst having been done, the targets of the deterrent are now free to make other arrangements. Before, they were reluctant to do so because of the switching costs. Now, they have no choice; they will not allow themselves to be controlled in this way again Hormuz may never reopen. But the importance of this is a depreciating asset.
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Tarzan
Tarzan@0xtarzan1999·
@prophet_notes Or they don't want to see the reality. Psudo optimism 🤔
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PROPHET
PROPHET@prophet_notes·
This war is showing that many analysts are utterly unable to grasp the complexity of the real world.
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jbulltard
jbulltard@jbulltard1·
I get so lost and have no idea what to believe anymore. Everyone says irans launches are down every day and they’re weaker and weaker but this guy is in Israel saying otherwise. What’s the real story?
Shaiel Ben-Ephraim@academic_la

Israel has been pummeled all night. Based on my counts of alerts and reports of landings from open sources the number increased tonight, though there are no reports of casualties. My Whatsapp groups are filled with people having breakdowns after not sleeping for two weeks. In Jerusalem 4 alerts were heard in a 90 minute span. Iran has been able to increase the number of launches daily. Everyone seems angry at the IDF and Netanyahu for lying about the destruction of Iranian capabilities.

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PROPHET
PROPHET@prophet_notes·
@TonyNashNerd Don’t bring your family into the conversation, I’m talking about you cheering for senseless invasion of Kharg Island. Read on Iranian oil infrastructure.
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Tony Nash
Tony Nash@TonyNashNerd·
Well. My family landed here in 1620. Fought in the Revolution. Fought for the Union in the Civil War. Etc. We've seen our share of sacrifice. It's never fun and saying that someone loves to see their countrymen die is just weird. Good thing you have an anonymous handle to hide behind.
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PROPHET がリツイート
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz·
The administration now faces a stark choice—one it can no longer avoid. A. Use force to reopen the strait, knowing full well that any strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure will trigger retaliation. This is not a limited operation. It’s escalation—potentially rapid, and potentially uncontrollable. There are no half-measures here: if Washington wants the strait open, it will have to fight for it. B. Accept reality, cut losses, and pursue a deal with Tehran over the terms of access. Politically unpalatable? Absolutely. But when global oil flows and the stability of Asian markets are at stake, strategic necessity tends to override rhetoric. What last night made unmistakably clear is this: there is no clean solution. No surgical fix. No easy win. The longer the administration pretends otherwise, the higher the cost will be #IranWar‌
Javier Blas@JavierBlas

The US and its allies are making a concerted effort to de-escalate the oil/gas war, having witnessed that Iran was willing -- and able -- to climb the escalation ladder very quickly. To be seen whether Tehran plays ball. Whatever the case, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

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PROPHET がリツイート
HITMAN
HITMAN@GlobalHitman·
I wrote this back in 2023 but it's very relevant today. The Superiority Trap - how the weak guy wins
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PROPHET
PROPHET@prophet_notes·
@GlobalHitman It will spill over to your side of the pond eventually…
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Florian
Florian@skylanderr5·
@prophet_notes For who by whom ..... you're Polish you have your biases .... For Iranians maybe not so much ....
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PROPHET
PROPHET@prophet_notes·
It turns out Obama was a better deal maker than Trump after all.
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PROPHET
PROPHET@prophet_notes·
@hardinpol Well, if America goes down, we go down with it in the medium term…
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konrad
konrad@hardinpol·
@prophet_notes id die before stop blindly putting half of my salary into the sp500
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konrad
konrad@hardinpol·
>short stocks
GIF
Yet another commodity guy@tleilax___

OK people, now we enter the export control phase : 1/ Control of food exports (Indian sugar for example) ==> Be long midcurve white sugar. Two of the largest sugar refineries in the world are unreachable (Al Khaleej in Dubai and Etihad in Iraq) 2/ Control of fuel exports (US, Indian, Chinese, Russia diesel and gasoline) ==> Be long midcurve diesel as the rollup is insane vs spot. 3/ Control of fertilizer exports (Russia, Belarus, India) ==> Long corn and raw sugar which are very fertilizer intensive crops and also are the principal feedstocks for ethanol production 4/ Control of capital exports (mainly Arab money for now) ==> Be short stocks

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