Richard Stuckey

@winsteadscap Thanks. How do you think about threading the needle between being appropriately optimistic on the next 3-4 years, and the inevitable (?) earnings cliff that comes at some point once demand slows and supply responds? I find navigating such a mega-cycle v challenging!

@winsteadscap Has been an incredible call. What's your view now if you don't mind me asking?

@orrdavid Would be interested to trial and help evolve

Militia built (and is improving) an AI system that automatically summarizes all company filings that I have a position in. It translates them to English if need be. It also auto sorts them by how material/important the news is. We're thinking to offer these kinds of tools for free (or maybe cheap, just to cover costs) to anyone that wants to use them. If that's something you'd be genuinely interested in using, please let me know in the comments. In an example from today: filings from a ton of Japanese companies that are all doing or expanding buy backs.

@grok what REIT is referenced here, that rhymes with bet geese novice?

@WTCM3 Hey, where was this from if you don't mind? Thanks!

"The median cost of insuring a Skoda is now 21% higher than the cheapest Ferrari quote in a UK market that appears poorly focused on profitability" cc: $ADM

@INArteCarloDoss Your tune seems to have changed a little bit in the long four months since this message!

Trump has done more in 10 days in office than Biden in 4 years

@ManifestFunds Weren't revenues down 15% yoy pro forma for the acquisitions? 30x revenue seems a bit pricey for a company with declining revenue to me

$SOUN actually hit earnings estimate -$.06 Ended quarter with $246M cash pile - WOW Reported revenue: $29.1M - 151%+ YOY - WOW No customer accounted for more than 10% of their revenue -> This shows the company has a strong book of customers do not leverage across a few stronghold customers They still face hurtles as a growing company, it will be a while until the earnings are positive, but I do feel like we are not far off Nitesh Sharan, CFO: “Our distinctive value proposition in conversational voice AI across an increasingly diverse industry base is manifesting real returns and outcome-based results for our end customers"

@GavinSBaker @farzyness Not to mention the stream of pardons of the most blatant fraudsters! Bernie Madoff would presumably have got his pardon this time if he'd survived!

@GavinSBaker @farzyness But doesn't this assume broader continuity? Don't you think the persistent efforts to undermine the rule of law (eg threats to impeach judges for obstructing the "will of the people") and explicit intent to undermine the constitution (third term etc) merit a higher risk premium?

Spoke to a lot of other fund managers this weekend. HF, LO, Macro. Many thought a crash was a realistic possiblity, which I rarely hear. Probably the most negative on a forward looking basis I have ever heard such a broad swath of investors in the last 25 years. Quite something given tech bubble in 2000, GFC in 2008, Covid and 2022. Good to remember that it would only take one “Truth Social” post backing off tariffs (we have negotiated some good deals) and a little bit of policy stability to start the pendulum swinging the other direction. Or 4/2 being anything other than absolutely terrible. Time will tell.

@michaelxpettis Hi Michael, what would unilaterally refusing to accommodate surpluses through its capital account look like? What would be the mechanisms by which that would be achieved? Thanks!

9/9 Either the US should organize a global custom union designed along the lines proposed by Keynes, in which members are prevented from implementing beggar-thy-neighbor trade surpluses, or it should unilaterally refuse to accommodate those surpluses through its capital account.

1/9 In what may be an important article, Lingling Wei of the WSJ suggests that Beijing may be considering limiting Chinese exports to the US as a concession to the Trump administration. wsj.com/economy/trade/… via @WSJ

@BeenThereCap Who did the UK arrest for posting perfectly civil opinions that oppose the establishment norm?

How this all likely went down: *UK arrests people for posting perfectly civil opinions that oppose the Establishment Norm *Elon posts, "That is wrong" *UK officials attack and threaten Elon for his own posts *Elon: "OK, you want to play?"; his intern digs for the best old dirt

I give UK's Liberal party a month, max, to pivot from blaming Elon for publicizing the issue to "we're sorry, mistakes were made, by both parties" and shooting any scapegoat they can credibly paint as such.

@PenttiJokinen Care to share the company? Thanks!

US private markets have AI startups with no business worth hundreds of millions / billions. European public markets have AI companies with actual solid business track record selling at PE 13 (less than €100M market cap). But it's Europe so there's no hope. 💀

@Restructuring__ Interested to see the deck pls. Ta

Outstanding ClearLake's slide from Dec-23 that I just received which includes detailed realization information over the last few years Exact figures are not disclosed but it seems that the 7x MOIC we estimated in the tweet below for Wheel Pros is fairly accurate In addition, it is very interesting to see how many of these exits represent continuation vehicles (in case not obvious, the red edits are mine) By the way, if you want to get the entire deck this slide is pulled from, retweet this post, comment interested, and send me a DM

@nickgerli1 This is great data. Thanks Nick. For international context, the UK new build rate is only about 0.25%-0.30% of population nationwide on average for many years

5) Interestingly - Texas' building permit rate is only the 7th highest in America. This metric takes the T-12 building permits and divides by population. You can see that in this relative metric, Idaho is actually the #1 building area of America. With builders pulling permits for 0.94% of the state's population in the last year (that's very high).

Check out the rental vacancy rate in Austin, TX. During the pandemic, apartment vacancies dropped to 3.9% when all the California people moved in. Fast forward to today - and the vacancy rate is now over 9.0%. The highest level in 7 years. And what's crazy is that these apartment developers in Austin are still delivering a huge backlog of units onto the market. Rents are already down 12% from peak. And could drop by more.

@MartinSLewis @fifibt19 @SandyRashty @RealMattLucas Martin, would you consider highlighting the egregious junk fees justgiving charges by default on donations. Now at 17%! And the slider only goes down to 10% so many people don't realise they can eliminate it altogether. Meanwhile $4bn US owner Blackbaud is making tens of millions

@fifibt19 @SandyRashty @RealMattLucas A wonderful cause, one my father has long been involved in, but I'm afraid I have a policy of not doing justgiving tweets - quite simply i'm asked for so many, i'd tweet nothing else if i did. I wish you the best and will sponsor personally

justgiving.com/campaign/virtu… @SandyRashty @MartinSLewis @RealMattLucas please can you like and retweet for this really worthy cause .. maybe even take part .. I realise there are a lot of great causes who need help but this is an amazing charity. Thank you 🙏

@SaveOnSend @stubailey @Atlantic_Money @Wise Depends what you think Wise average transfer amount is though. I think a large proportion of Wise's transfers are under £1,000, at which level this fee model is not disruptive at all. Obviously different for large transfers

@stubailey @Atlantic_Money @Wise And yes, @stubailey, AM doesn't charge FX, but that is only potentially disruptive because its fixed fee is $3-4 and not $30-40. If Wise cuts FX markup 10X to 0.06%, it would be disruptive, too.

Unlike the thesis of WU, Xoom, and Wise, only @Atlantic_Money has a disruptive biz model with 1/10th Wise's markup. Adding to the mystery, AM's employee #s on LinkedIn have declined despite an unprecedented $0.5 billion in transfers during the same period: linkedin.com/company/atlant…

@mario_cibelli Mario, would you consider publishing the presentation you shared with the Becle management team as well as the letter you recently published? Thanks for your efforts in pushing the company to crystallise value

Tequila giant Becle ($CUERVO) is seeing an inflection in free cash flow and expanded margins as the agave collapse works its way through the P&L. All that's missing now is a listing on a major global stock exchange. reuters.com/markets/commod…

We live in a time increasingly resembling the second half of the 1930s. I couldn't live with myself with the knowledge I didn't do more to stop another Hitler. In light of the Republican wavering and in memory of Navalny I will give $100 towards FPV drones for Ukr for every RT.

@NMRtweet Hey, I tried to DM you btw but I couldn't. Mine are open if you wouldn't mind messaging me, would be interested to discuss something on this. Thanks

We are short Mondee, an airfare consolidator trading at sector leading multiples despite nosebleed leverage and rising default risk. Report available on our website. nightmarketresearch.com/mond/ $MOND