MissingLinks

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MissingLinks

MissingLinks

@themissinglinks

Investor & Trader. Tweets are NOT investment advice/recommendations. They are only opinions.

参加日 Nisan 2010
918 フォロー中3.6K フォロワー
TheValueist
TheValueist@TheValueist·
Congratulations if you survived this Iran war own goal craziness. Hopefully, the worst is behind us, and both sides realize it is better to reach a peaceful resolution to whatever remains. I don't see how the global GAI weapons dealer, $TSM , isn't a $500 stock by 1/21/28 with some sort of peace in the Middle East. The chart looks strong and poised for a breakout. As always, I am happy to hear the other side.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
I've been the first few to cover many supply chain photonic names. Most are up 100-400%+ since I've posted. Here's the TLDR overview of my thesis posts: “Safest” Longs as of Today: - $TSEM (Tower Semi) - $SOI (Soitec) - $COHR - Defensible compounders over time. Soitec - Substrate monopoly over silicon photonics / CPO architectural ramp at dirt cheap valuation (after recent 40%+ rise maybe still 1.4x book) Tower Semi - P/E in the 10's for 2028, 70%+ capacity booked already, $NVDA architectural partner, and basically the pure play $TSM of photonics. Coherent - Basically does everything from materials/substrates to lasers to transceivers in photonics. As well as fundamental supplier to many other verticals. Most High Beta/Extreme Growth Longs: $AXTI - InP duopoly with Sumitomo (that getting export controlled), upstream feedstock duopoly with Vital. Basically at the top of the entire photonics food chain is AXT. There's certainty export control risks, but my thesis is that if AXT goes down, the photonic buildout with AI goes down. So might as well go long on AXT. $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp into 2027. Laser -> Design -> Assembly, Made in America. Main uncertainty is execution, scaling laser capacity that they've bought from $COHR, etc. Demand from hyperscalers are all there. Can they deliver? I'd take the risk. $IQE - Basically completely dependent on restructuring and clearing debt (~$200M MC). Known $LITE supplier for epiwafers, and their main competitor was Landmark with a $3.5B+ valuation. The latent capacity is there with reactors, but they basically need to pull off a successful pivot over to photonics and cut off legacy drag for 10x rerating. Highest risk out there, but maybe worth the reward.s Long $GOOGL TPU Ecosystem: $LITE - Basically very high BOM related to optical due to OCS monopoly for Google. If you think Google TPU is a trillion dollar program that might end up like $NVDA, go long on $LITE. Google has $175-180B capex planned for 2026, and their CTO for AI Infra said they plan to up that Y/Y, probably spending $1 trillion in the next 8 years. If that holds up, $LITE is extremely undervalued relative to forward potential. Of course the supply lasers to other hyperscalers too, but I'd say it's more heavily tethered to Google growth. _ There's a ton of others out there I've covered like: $POET - I'm personally not long, but $400M balance sheet gives it good cushion. Just found Celestial from $MRVL ramp was too far out, eg. $500 million 2028, $1 billion 2029 projections, for revenue to be too material as of 2026. It largely depends if their interposers get other hyperscaler qualifications rather than backdooring through Marvell, which was the main bull case. $HIMX- I did find this thesis to be slightly compelling as a likely $TSM COUPE supplier. But personally, I preferred $SOI, and would just put more concentration into that (since Soitec known supplier already to basically everything silicon photonics, and is just coming out of a downturn). There’s a lot more like $NOK, $SHMN, that are interesting, but I’ve personally out concentration into the ones I find most compelling. As “crowded names” like $LITE, it does not mean there’s no upside left. It just happens to be more priced in until there’s new news. There's a lot of "critical suppliers" but there's a difference between importance in the supply chain... And converting that into extreme revenue growth eg. $AAOI -> $4.5 billion in revenue. But for TLDR photonics exposure, my portfolio looks similar to this: High Concentration (Safer) $TSEM foundry, $SOI substrate, $COHR everything Mix of Long + CSP (High Volaility): $AXTI substrate/feedstock, $IQE epiwafer, $AAOI transceiver supply chain Then Long Google with $LITE
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MissingLinks
MissingLinks@themissinglinks·
I absolutely love and agree with 95% of your posts on here. You have some real alpha. I agree on Cathie. But you really think this not going to trade well? Elon has created massive wealth for investors. Body bags of people that have bet against him. You really think that just stops here with SpaceX that has the most massive right tail outcomes of any company in the world?
MissingLinks@themissinglinks

Fintwit is gonna go broke trying to short @SpaceX just like they did with $TSLA. @elonmusk companies do not trade on valuation they trade on execution and right tail probabilities. With Elon the probability of the extreme right tail events is so much higher than most people because the man executes on another level. I view the price today as a probability weighted price of all outcomes and Elon has an extreme right tail on SpaceX that could be In the 20-50t range in 10-15 years. We have been long $SATS since double digits via calls and commons. And I have a short to pair it with that I like that I shared with my team should win with the liquidity drain.

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SuspendedCap
SuspendedCap@ContrarianCurse·
Incredibly bearish the IPO you’d think you’d skip this after being complete shit for years but nah, run it back At the end of the day this is marketing. These are seg fund level grifters
Ark Invest Tracker@ArkkDaily

CATHIE WOOD SAYS SPACEX'S OPPORTUNITY IS 600X BIGGER THAN YOU THINK - Starlink TAM grew from $35B to $160B... then AI compute changed everything - SpaceX filed to launch 1 MILLION satellites for AI compute vs. 40,000 for Starlink - ARK says total TAM could be in the trillions

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Prepared Remarks
Prepared Remarks@P_Remarks·
The way software stocks look at me when they’re -70% right before going down another -50% and ruining my life
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MissingLinks
MissingLinks@themissinglinks·
We added back $POET in the 5s at end of March. Got some upside calls as well today. We are staying long $LWLG till it gets more love from the big fintwit influencers. Still very under-owned. already over 2x on common and Multibaggers on leaps. Only @TFLabofficial
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MissingLinks@themissinglinks

Update on $POET. We used the @Citrini7 write up pump to exit 75% of the position today. Reason $POET still a shitco thanks @insane_analyst and too crowded with retail. $LWLG on the other hand is not crowded and no one owns it. I love $TSEM and that partnership is key for a rerating. Not too late @aleabitoreddit

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MissingLinks
MissingLinks@themissinglinks·
@Arronwei3n Who will be the asic partner is the question? $AVGO or $MRVL
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MissingLinks
MissingLinks@themissinglinks·
$INTC from 42s. $AMD from 200. High conviction trades from the team that give you confidence to hold your winners. Only @TFLabofficial
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MissingLinks
MissingLinks@themissinglinks·
$INTC just got $GOOGL as a customer. The team has 5 layers of call options that we started buying when the stock was 43. The first 4 are already free. Keep compounding those gains. Let the market tell you when it’s done. Only @TFLabofficial
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MissingLinks
MissingLinks@themissinglinks·
Over 100% gain on Ta Liang 3167 TT in a month that I bought right before the war started. The supply chain for the AI build out has so many hidden gems
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MissingLinks
MissingLinks@themissinglinks·
Told the team since noon. We looking up on dips. Did your team catch a 130 Point ES move and 600 NQ? Only @TFLabofficial
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